JVL: "At some point the people trying to uphold our liberal institutions are going to understand the world we now live in."
Or more precisely, the people trying to uphold our liberal institutions are going to understand that the voters do not care about upholding our liberal institutions. If they did, Harris would have won handily.
And before someone writes, "Tim, Trump only got 49.5%+ of the vote" and "We didn't vote for this" and "People didn't show up for Harris the way they did for Biden", the fact that 49.5%+ of the electorate is fine with sunsetting those institutions is **exactly** the problem. The country will not survive should this continue unchecked.
So JVL is right. Biden should say, YOLO, and release the whole damn report. And when MAGA objects, kindly point out to them what applies to Trump w.r.t. presidential immunity also applies to Biden until noon on January 20.
JVL, I just wrote a detailed account of how Hitler came to power in 1933. I think it's a darn sight better than the source that you are relying on. The German constitution was downright defective and gave the Reich president to overrule any action of the Legislature.
It's a complicated story but it's worth understanding.
Kathleen, I read your Substack. I would strongly caution readers that it appears not deeply researched and flawed by thesis pushing. That trump isn't Hitler and 2025 is not 1933 are simply truisms. It does not logically follow that trump is not a threat to democracy on the same order of magnitude. Neither does it follow that perceiving trump as such a threat is somehow "self-defeating." The echoes of 1933 that are plainly present in our current crisis, as a number of historians have noted, are far more compelling than you suggest.
For a better informed and more cogent discussion, I recommend Ryback's full essay in The Atlantic, which this link opens for free:
I just read the Atlantic article. It gives a fairly good description of how Hitler rose to power manipulating a very flawed constitution which permitted the temporary establishment of a dictatorship. The Atlantic article doesn't give a single suggestion of how trump could follow the same path.
Unlike the US Constitution, the Weimar Constitution permitted the establishment of a dictatorship by a 2/3 vote of the German parliament. That is NOT TRUE in the United States. There can't be any change in the US Constitution without a 2/3 vote of both houses of Congress and ratification by three quarters of the states. Thus, the US Constitution is far more robust than the Weimar Constitution.
Although the Atlantic article does not stress the great importance of the three million strong storm troopers in arresting Hitler's enemies, a close reading pf the article shows that that 3 million strong private army played a key role.
So, how exactly does Trump 2025 = Hitler 1933?
Again, the Atlantic article only describes Hitler's actions and never compares them with Trump. Would you care to describe how Hitler's actions under very different constitutional circumstances will be Reproduced by an addled and barely coherent 78 year old man whose only expertise is in salesmanship and other forms of PR?
I think there are two gigantic points of difference between Hitler 1933 and Trump 2025. Both of these points are difference were absolutely critical in Hitler's rise to power. Hitler had a private army of three million under his direct command who had been carrying out acts of violence for him for the previous 9 years. Secondly, the Weimar Constitution had two clauses which allowed the President to declare an emergency and rule through his chancellor as a dictator. It was these two factors— a constitution that literally contained a direct pathway to dictatorship, and secondly a private army of 3 million that could terrorize any opposition that made possible Hitler's 1933 rise to power. Trump doesn't have those two factors.
I wrote my sub stack post in a popular style so that it could be understood by a broad audience. Sorry it didn't impress you.
I was interacting with a person who was convinced that Trump would become a dictator imitating Hitler's rise to power, and I was able to convince him that if Trump was going to establish a dictatorship, he would have to find a different pathway to dictatorship.
Bill Barr said of Trump: "He lacks the discipline to deliver on his policies and would likely deliver chaos. It is a horror show when he's left to his own devices."
If Trump can't deliver on a policy (think infrastructure week, think building the wall) he won't be able to ram through a dictatorship. I will take Bill Barr's opinion about the man who worked with for several years over any other form of evidence.
Given the lack of Congress's ability to legislate to override executive actions, and the Supreme Court's demonstrated pattern of allowing Trump to do what he wants, Trump probably thinks he can functionally override the legislature here too enough of the time.
Not to the level of "dissolve Congress", but certainly if Trump starts out with things like impoundment or ignoring other laws, the chance of the GOP congress pushing back seems low. There's certainly no risk of impeachment or removal.
It is more than just the folks who voted for Trump. It is also the folks who sat out the election, choosing neutrality in the face of an existential threat to this country. And it is also the folks who voted against Trump, who are now downplaying his sociopathic nature and justifying why they need get-along with the new regime. And even worse, some of these past anti-Trumpers are now actively siding him, because we Americans love to identify with winners (it makes us better about ourselves). I do believe that we in The Bulwark community are now in the minority of this country; maybe a very small minority. I will never give up fighting the good fight - I took an oath to the Constitution a number of times during the course of my professional career - but I suspect that we are now dependent upon Trump making a total mess of things before his supporters and knee-benders will see the error of their ways (and that is not guaranteed either).
His "sociopathic nature" is quite something to behold, Kurt. Having dealt with someone with a personality disorder in my past and understanding how serious it is, it's amazing what his supporters and his enablers are willing to put up with in order to get what they want. Downplaying that nature doesn't mean the nature doesn't exist or disappears. It will always be there.
As I see it, we as a country failed to prevent a disordered man from getting the nuclear codes again, and there's enough blame to go around on that front.
That is what is so disheartening, the level of complicity in getting to this point. Every time I see or hear Trump, I am just utterly baffled as to how any rational human being could vote to put him in charge of anything, let alone the USA.
It's hard to think about it. I make myself "go there" once per day so that I'm not shocked when the "ifs" turn to "whens" and things like hey, HE could walk into the senate or the house and do what he threatened to do on "5th Avenue." I'm not a morbid person...I'm just trying to get my mind ready.
Dual citizenship and foreign passports, depending on your occupation, may be easier to come by then you would ever imagine. Also many nations allow citizenship by investment as well (Switzerland, Belize, British Oversess Territory Citizenship etd). My advice is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Godspeed.
Well, people give themselves permission to do shit they shouldn't do all the time, so why would voting for a mentally ill geriatric be any different when the payoff -- pissing people off -- gives them pleasure? As I get older, I've learned the difference between a wise person and a fool is the wise person understands that every action has intended and unintended consequences. Because they are both stupid and bad people, Trump supporters don't appreciate this fact of life, and when they experience it for themselves, they won't take ownership of their choices. After all, Trump never does, so why should they?
Exactly, Tim. You don’t have to look very hard or very deeply to see that phenomenon every time I set foot in public. And, like it or not, the supporters and the, ‘neutrals’ are emboldened in small and not so small ways to emulate the dear leader in behaving as though personal responsibility is as outmoded as traveling by horse drawn carriage. The other constant is blaming everyone but oneself
JVL: "At some point the people trying to uphold our liberal institutions are going to understand the world we now live in."
Or more precisely, the people trying to uphold our liberal institutions are going to understand that the voters do not care about upholding our liberal institutions. If they did, Harris would have won handily.
And before someone writes, "Tim, Trump only got 49.5%+ of the vote" and "We didn't vote for this" and "People didn't show up for Harris the way they did for Biden", the fact that 49.5%+ of the electorate is fine with sunsetting those institutions is **exactly** the problem. The country will not survive should this continue unchecked.
So JVL is right. Biden should say, YOLO, and release the whole damn report. And when MAGA objects, kindly point out to them what applies to Trump w.r.t. presidential immunity also applies to Biden until noon on January 20.
YES! The question still remains: Why? Why, why, why aren't our Democrat elected officials all over this?? What the fork are they all doing??
Because temperamentally they’re not suited for the type of combat the next 4 years will require. Maybe AOC is, or Schiff, or Raskin.
And SOOOOOO much more.
JVL, I just wrote a detailed account of how Hitler came to power in 1933. I think it's a darn sight better than the source that you are relying on. The German constitution was downright defective and gave the Reich president to overrule any action of the Legislature.
It's a complicated story but it's worth understanding.
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/will-trump-2025-hitler-1933
Kathleen, I read your Substack. I would strongly caution readers that it appears not deeply researched and flawed by thesis pushing. That trump isn't Hitler and 2025 is not 1933 are simply truisms. It does not logically follow that trump is not a threat to democracy on the same order of magnitude. Neither does it follow that perceiving trump as such a threat is somehow "self-defeating." The echoes of 1933 that are plainly present in our current crisis, as a number of historians have noted, are far more compelling than you suggest.
For a better informed and more cogent discussion, I recommend Ryback's full essay in The Atlantic, which this link opens for free:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/01/hitler-germany-constitution-authoritarianism/681233/?gift=SJWNUseb7igwJ-KDwsDXzV7Oo73BhUeU45oZuGQpiwE&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
I just read the Atlantic article. It gives a fairly good description of how Hitler rose to power manipulating a very flawed constitution which permitted the temporary establishment of a dictatorship. The Atlantic article doesn't give a single suggestion of how trump could follow the same path.
Unlike the US Constitution, the Weimar Constitution permitted the establishment of a dictatorship by a 2/3 vote of the German parliament. That is NOT TRUE in the United States. There can't be any change in the US Constitution without a 2/3 vote of both houses of Congress and ratification by three quarters of the states. Thus, the US Constitution is far more robust than the Weimar Constitution.
Although the Atlantic article does not stress the great importance of the three million strong storm troopers in arresting Hitler's enemies, a close reading pf the article shows that that 3 million strong private army played a key role.
So, how exactly does Trump 2025 = Hitler 1933?
Again, the Atlantic article only describes Hitler's actions and never compares them with Trump. Would you care to describe how Hitler's actions under very different constitutional circumstances will be Reproduced by an addled and barely coherent 78 year old man whose only expertise is in salesmanship and other forms of PR?
I think there are two gigantic points of difference between Hitler 1933 and Trump 2025. Both of these points are difference were absolutely critical in Hitler's rise to power. Hitler had a private army of three million under his direct command who had been carrying out acts of violence for him for the previous 9 years. Secondly, the Weimar Constitution had two clauses which allowed the President to declare an emergency and rule through his chancellor as a dictator. It was these two factors— a constitution that literally contained a direct pathway to dictatorship, and secondly a private army of 3 million that could terrorize any opposition that made possible Hitler's 1933 rise to power. Trump doesn't have those two factors.
I wrote my sub stack post in a popular style so that it could be understood by a broad audience. Sorry it didn't impress you.
I was interacting with a person who was convinced that Trump would become a dictator imitating Hitler's rise to power, and I was able to convince him that if Trump was going to establish a dictatorship, he would have to find a different pathway to dictatorship.
Bill Barr said of Trump: "He lacks the discipline to deliver on his policies and would likely deliver chaos. It is a horror show when he's left to his own devices."
If Trump can't deliver on a policy (think infrastructure week, think building the wall) he won't be able to ram through a dictatorship. I will take Bill Barr's opinion about the man who worked with for several years over any other form of evidence.
https://www.c-span.org/clip/public-affairs-event/bill-barr-says-fmr-president-trump-lacks-discipline-and-will-deliver-chaos/5069490
Yes. I just finished reading The Atlantic essay. The parallels are terrifying. You can so easily substitute Trump’s name for Hitler’s.
Given the lack of Congress's ability to legislate to override executive actions, and the Supreme Court's demonstrated pattern of allowing Trump to do what he wants, Trump probably thinks he can functionally override the legislature here too enough of the time.
Not to the level of "dissolve Congress", but certainly if Trump starts out with things like impoundment or ignoring other laws, the chance of the GOP congress pushing back seems low. There's certainly no risk of impeachment or removal.
It is more than just the folks who voted for Trump. It is also the folks who sat out the election, choosing neutrality in the face of an existential threat to this country. And it is also the folks who voted against Trump, who are now downplaying his sociopathic nature and justifying why they need get-along with the new regime. And even worse, some of these past anti-Trumpers are now actively siding him, because we Americans love to identify with winners (it makes us better about ourselves). I do believe that we in The Bulwark community are now in the minority of this country; maybe a very small minority. I will never give up fighting the good fight - I took an oath to the Constitution a number of times during the course of my professional career - but I suspect that we are now dependent upon Trump making a total mess of things before his supporters and knee-benders will see the error of their ways (and that is not guaranteed either).
So perfectly stated
His "sociopathic nature" is quite something to behold, Kurt. Having dealt with someone with a personality disorder in my past and understanding how serious it is, it's amazing what his supporters and his enablers are willing to put up with in order to get what they want. Downplaying that nature doesn't mean the nature doesn't exist or disappears. It will always be there.
As I see it, we as a country failed to prevent a disordered man from getting the nuclear codes again, and there's enough blame to go around on that front.
That is what is so disheartening, the level of complicity in getting to this point. Every time I see or hear Trump, I am just utterly baffled as to how any rational human being could vote to put him in charge of anything, let alone the USA.
America is, perhaps irrevocably, devolving into a failed state.
It's hard to think about it. I make myself "go there" once per day so that I'm not shocked when the "ifs" turn to "whens" and things like hey, HE could walk into the senate or the house and do what he threatened to do on "5th Avenue." I'm not a morbid person...I'm just trying to get my mind ready.
Dual citizenship and foreign passports, depending on your occupation, may be easier to come by then you would ever imagine. Also many nations allow citizenship by investment as well (Switzerland, Belize, British Oversess Territory Citizenship etd). My advice is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Godspeed.
Well, people give themselves permission to do shit they shouldn't do all the time, so why would voting for a mentally ill geriatric be any different when the payoff -- pissing people off -- gives them pleasure? As I get older, I've learned the difference between a wise person and a fool is the wise person understands that every action has intended and unintended consequences. Because they are both stupid and bad people, Trump supporters don't appreciate this fact of life, and when they experience it for themselves, they won't take ownership of their choices. After all, Trump never does, so why should they?
Exactly, Tim. You don’t have to look very hard or very deeply to see that phenomenon every time I set foot in public. And, like it or not, the supporters and the, ‘neutrals’ are emboldened in small and not so small ways to emulate the dear leader in behaving as though personal responsibility is as outmoded as traveling by horse drawn carriage. The other constant is blaming everyone but oneself