Belarus is now the wild card in the deck. A month ago it was generally expected that they would join the Russian attack. But Lukaschenka apparently didn't think he could risk it. Belarus has become "the dog that didn't bark", and everyone seems to have forgotten about it. But what if he's overthrown? What if a new government in Belarus tells the Russians that they have to leave? What if a new government comes in on Ukraine's side if they refuse? A whole range of assumptions would suddenly need to be recalibrated.
Belarus is now the wild card in the deck. A month ago it was generally expected that they would join the Russian attack. But Lukaschenka apparently didn't think he could risk it. Belarus has become "the dog that didn't bark", and everyone seems to have forgotten about it. But what if he's overthrown? What if a new government in Belarus tells the Russians that they have to leave? What if a new government comes in on Ukraine's side if they refuse? A whole range of assumptions would suddenly need to be recalibrated.