As far as I know, every poll shows Trump is ahead, and likely to win. Especially with his Electoral College advantage. He may once again lose the popular vote but he is likely to be elected.
Do you know of polls that show Biden ahead? If you do, please let me know. I would love to see some good news.
Polling these days has lots of problems. Pollsters among themselves are well aware that they can no longer acquire a random representative sample. It been a problem for quite a while but worse, their usually weighting techniques no longer work. Nevertheless it is a crying shame that the race is so close. If people were rational Trump would be double digits behind Biden no giving an illusion of being neck to neck.
Yes, polling does have many problems. The margin of error is larger. Which is why Trump or Biden being ahead by 3 points is not significant. Even if Biden pulls ahead by 5 points, I fear the margin of error will be so large, Trump might still win.
I agree it is a terrible shame that the race is close at all.
Incidentally, the polls in 2016 were largely correct. Trump's wins in swing states were within the margin of error. The overall popular vote was very close to what was predicted by the polls. Trump lost the popular vote, as predicted. My daughter was working as a high level Democratic operative before and during that election. She was inside the White House at times. Weeks before the election she knew that Trump would probably win. It was no surprise to her or to others who understand polls and politics. She said Hillary was the worse candidate she ever worked for. Hillary did everything wrong.
Since 2016, the inability of pollsters to acquire a representative random sample has accelerated. I suspected Trump might win because based on my experience in red areas, his appeal to them was being overly discounted in 2016. I do not agree that Hillary was a bad candidate or that she did everything wrong. However, it is difficult to argue against an appeal to authority. We know the majority of voters voted for her, and it is arguable that if just one of a number of things had not happened (Third-party voters not appreciating the stakes, Comey's fake reopening of the butteremails in the last week, Russian interference) she likely would have won the Electoral College as well. If she had won. everyone would have said she was a great candidate.
You wrote: "I do not agree that Hillary was a bad candidate or that she did everything wrong. However, it is difficult to argue against an appeal to authority."
The authority (my daughter), in this case, was smack in the middle of the campaign for weeks. She told me many details about the kinds of mistakes Hillary and the campaign managers made. I don't know much about politics, but even I could see these were egregious errors. Amateur. Easily avoidable. Self-owned, as they say in sports. I do not understand why Bill Clinton did not warn her. Perhaps he did?
My daughter is no longer in politics, but she still lives in DC and she knows many people who still work for the DNC and the White House. I am sorry to say she tells me the Biden campaign is poorly run. I have had some direct contact with the campaign, because they keep asking me for money and then telling me they cannot accept it. They are making other idiotic mistakes and alienating supporters. It is not as bad as Hillary but it is nothing to write home about.
Even if Hillary had won, my daughter and her co-workers from the DNC would never say that Hillary was a great candidate. Not after all the misadventures she told me about. They would have said, "any fool could have beaten Trump." That was somewhat true in 2016. Not in 2020 or 2024.
Most of the MSM consumers are going to vote for Biden. They worry about a second Trump term. Negative news, including bad polls, about Biden amplifies fear, which drives clicks, which drives their business model.
Imagine if all the polls said that Biden was up by 15 points. Would we continue to read as much? I don’t think so.
Doom sells. (We even have a term for it… “doomscrolling!” We don’t have “ponyscrolling.”)
As long as Trump is winning, the Democratic Party will be in bad shape.
Trump isn't winning.
As far as I know, every poll shows Trump is ahead, and likely to win. Especially with his Electoral College advantage. He may once again lose the popular vote but he is likely to be elected.
Do you know of polls that show Biden ahead? If you do, please let me know. I would love to see some good news.
Per Simon Rosenberg - 5 polls show Biden gains.
NYT — Biden Gains 2
Yahoo/YouGov Biden gains 2 now up 46-44
CBS News/YouGov Biden gains 3 has 1 point lead now in battleground states
Morning Consult Biden gains 2 leads 44-43
Echelon a GOP pollster found Biden gaining 4 points going from46-49 to 48-44.
Polling these days has lots of problems. Pollsters among themselves are well aware that they can no longer acquire a random representative sample. It been a problem for quite a while but worse, their usually weighting techniques no longer work. Nevertheless it is a crying shame that the race is so close. If people were rational Trump would be double digits behind Biden no giving an illusion of being neck to neck.
Yes, polling does have many problems. The margin of error is larger. Which is why Trump or Biden being ahead by 3 points is not significant. Even if Biden pulls ahead by 5 points, I fear the margin of error will be so large, Trump might still win.
I agree it is a terrible shame that the race is close at all.
Incidentally, the polls in 2016 were largely correct. Trump's wins in swing states were within the margin of error. The overall popular vote was very close to what was predicted by the polls. Trump lost the popular vote, as predicted. My daughter was working as a high level Democratic operative before and during that election. She was inside the White House at times. Weeks before the election she knew that Trump would probably win. It was no surprise to her or to others who understand polls and politics. She said Hillary was the worse candidate she ever worked for. Hillary did everything wrong.
Since 2016, the inability of pollsters to acquire a representative random sample has accelerated. I suspected Trump might win because based on my experience in red areas, his appeal to them was being overly discounted in 2016. I do not agree that Hillary was a bad candidate or that she did everything wrong. However, it is difficult to argue against an appeal to authority. We know the majority of voters voted for her, and it is arguable that if just one of a number of things had not happened (Third-party voters not appreciating the stakes, Comey's fake reopening of the butteremails in the last week, Russian interference) she likely would have won the Electoral College as well. If she had won. everyone would have said she was a great candidate.
You wrote: "I do not agree that Hillary was a bad candidate or that she did everything wrong. However, it is difficult to argue against an appeal to authority."
The authority (my daughter), in this case, was smack in the middle of the campaign for weeks. She told me many details about the kinds of mistakes Hillary and the campaign managers made. I don't know much about politics, but even I could see these were egregious errors. Amateur. Easily avoidable. Self-owned, as they say in sports. I do not understand why Bill Clinton did not warn her. Perhaps he did?
My daughter is no longer in politics, but she still lives in DC and she knows many people who still work for the DNC and the White House. I am sorry to say she tells me the Biden campaign is poorly run. I have had some direct contact with the campaign, because they keep asking me for money and then telling me they cannot accept it. They are making other idiotic mistakes and alienating supporters. It is not as bad as Hillary but it is nothing to write home about.
Even if Hillary had won, my daughter and her co-workers from the DNC would never say that Hillary was a great candidate. Not after all the misadventures she told me about. They would have said, "any fool could have beaten Trump." That was somewhat true in 2016. Not in 2020 or 2024.
"Yahoo/YouGov - Biden gains 2, now up 46-44. “After Trump felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months"
CBS News/YouGov - Biden gains 3, has 1 point lead now in the battleground states
Morning Consult - Biden gains 2, leads 44-43 Biden leads Trump for first time in a month”
538 unveiled its 2024 forecasting model this morning and it gives Biden a 53% chance of winning the election."
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/biden-makes-gains-in-4-new-polls?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&publication_id=1223483&post_id=145532086&triedRedirect=true
Thank You!!! Why the fuck do I never see this in the msm???
Doom sells. Good news doesn’t.
Most of the MSM consumers are going to vote for Biden. They worry about a second Trump term. Negative news, including bad polls, about Biden amplifies fear, which drives clicks, which drives their business model.
Imagine if all the polls said that Biden was up by 15 points. Would we continue to read as much? I don’t think so.
Doom sells. (We even have a term for it… “doomscrolling!” We don’t have “ponyscrolling.”)
It's there, just not at nearly the volume level of the polls that are bad for Biden.
And they don't get spread by social media as much.
Even The Bulwark will jump all over the polls bad for Biden and then kind of ignore the ones showing it's turning around.
Yahoo/YouGov is mainstream media (msm). And as the linked article shows, this was reported in, quote:
"New York Times - Biden gains 2 points since April/May
Yahoo/YouGov - Biden gains 2, now up 46-44. “After Trump felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months"
CBS News/YouGov - Biden gains 3, has 1 point lead now in the battleground states
Morning Consult - Biden gains 2, leads 44-43, “Biden leads Trump for first time in a month”
I did not notice it, but the New York Times and CBS are definitely msm.
That is good news! 1 point is within the margin of error, but at least it is 50:50.
I'd rather be one point up than one point down. 😀