Republicans take the house with at least 25 seats and probably 30. Senate, 2- 3 seat majority maybe five. Filibuster abolished by the vernal equinox. All out Hunter Biden corruption all day all the time and Biden impeached by Memorial Day. If the Republican senate by five, certain democratic senators should hire security guards leading up to the senate trial. Proceedings against Kamala Harris 50-50 chance. With the Republicans in both chambers, and their legislatures controlling 330 electoral votes, regardless of the actual 2024 vote totals -- which the Republicans will very likely win legitimately -- the Republican presidential candidate unless he dies a week before the election will be installed and if Trump the US will be out of NATO while the daffodils are still in bloom. After that, hiring and promotion for every post in government and the military -- the IRS, the Defense department, Commerce, and especially the Justice Department -- will be according to political reliability and probably also willingness to pay for opportunities of graft. Federal contracts and research grants will be awarded to firms and institutions by willingness to purge non-reliable staff and faculty.
Last time we had Trump boat parades. Summer and fall of 2024 will see all these and pickup truck parades by armed militia.
More like the East Germany of my childhood if we are lucky, Romania under Ceaucescu if we arent, but run like a combination of one of those with a narco cartel.
Why would the GOP Senate do away with the filibuster without holding the Presidency? The filibuster isn't what's keeping them from removing Biden in your prediction.
Depends on where they want to go. If I am right, America has crossed a Rubicon into kleptocratic thugocracy, and the filibuster, formerly beloved of the right, will be defenestrated onto the dungheap of history.
Through most of my lifetime, the traditional right revered the filibuster because it was their surety of safety as a numerical and political minority. With the filibuster, the solid South successfully sustained its one-party white supremacist regime. Since the civil rights era, the filibuster has been an increasingly important tool to protect an array of minority interests and block efforts at reform or change. It has occasionally been used by the center and center left, but the vast preponderance of benefit has accrued to the right side of the spectrum in general, and to the furthest right elements in particular.
So, you ask, why then would the Republican party want to do away with it?
The answer is -- the value of such a tool lies in its power to resist change while also agreeing to allow one's opponents a voice in the debate and a seat at the table. If one's aims are to prevent change, but do not extend to killing and jailing one's opposition, one is happy to have the polity stymied by such curiosities as filibusters. This has been the default preference of the center right, and even the deep right, ever since WWII. After all it's been the center left and strong left that have wanted to alter the settled order of things. The filibuster applies to everyone alike. If you aren't trying to make major alterations in the settled order of things, it's not a real problem if you let your opposition box you in once in a while. Nine out of ten times it's a winner for you. It's a one-way ratchet with all the leverage in your favor.
If, however, you decide you really do want to make serious modifications to the way things are, something that promotes stasis becomes an impediment rather than a blessing. And if you also now want not only to stymie your opponent, but actually destroy him, the impediment mutates from problem to threat.
It seems clear to me that the Republican base, and objectively its elected officeholders, no longer believe in or want an America where the rule of law constrains them. They may not yet be entirely aware of this yet, but a population that wants to overthrow electoral democracy, and yearns in its heart for a de facto white supremacist blood and soil ethnic minority-majority society, no longer needs or wants restraints like the filibuster available to its enemies.
We are probably going to see two years of increasing hysteria from the legislative branch. Whether they formally do away with the filibuster rule during this session or not depends on whether they start on a legislative agenda to complement their rage agenda.
The next administration, whether it's Trump or DeSantis or one of the other aspiring Mussolinis/Francos/Ordobans, will need a legislative agenda to permanently consolidate power. They'll want to federalize the leprous epidemic of vigilante revanchist culture war legislation now boiling out of state legislatures. They will want to suppress access to the ballot at the federal as well as state levels. They will want laws to complete takeover of the military, the Justice department, the IRS, and all the various Federal entities by their henchmen. They will want legislation to tie federal contracting and grants to cooperation with the regime. They will want broader arrest and detention powers. They will want to give law enforcement at all levels expanded authority to collect and use data on citizens' political as well as economic and legal activity and beliefs. The list goes on.
For these reasons the filibuster will not exist in future. There may be some ceremonial vestige such as the "Black Rod" ritual at the start of Parliament in Britain, but as a functional institution it will terminate next January when McConnell becomes majority leader.
The GOP will not do away with the filibuster before 2024 at the earliest. There is zero chance of it happening, short of the President and VP dying in office while the Republicans hold both houses of Congress and a Republican Speaker taking over. They derive no benefit from having it gone, because without a President, anything they pass can be vetoed, and they run the risk of Democrats taking total control of both branches and gaining compete control.
Even with a GOP Presidency, there's nothing McConnell wants to do except pass tax cuts for the rich and confirm Republican judges, neither of which is affected by the filibuster.
Republicans take the house with at least 25 seats and probably 30. Senate, 2- 3 seat majority maybe five. Filibuster abolished by the vernal equinox. All out Hunter Biden corruption all day all the time and Biden impeached by Memorial Day. If the Republican senate by five, certain democratic senators should hire security guards leading up to the senate trial. Proceedings against Kamala Harris 50-50 chance. With the Republicans in both chambers, and their legislatures controlling 330 electoral votes, regardless of the actual 2024 vote totals -- which the Republicans will very likely win legitimately -- the Republican presidential candidate unless he dies a week before the election will be installed and if Trump the US will be out of NATO while the daffodils are still in bloom. After that, hiring and promotion for every post in government and the military -- the IRS, the Defense department, Commerce, and especially the Justice Department -- will be according to political reliability and probably also willingness to pay for opportunities of graft. Federal contracts and research grants will be awarded to firms and institutions by willingness to purge non-reliable staff and faculty.
Last time we had Trump boat parades. Summer and fall of 2024 will see all these and pickup truck parades by armed militia.
it will be Afghanistan and the Taliban!
More like the East Germany of my childhood if we are lucky, Romania under Ceaucescu if we arent, but run like a combination of one of those with a narco cartel.
Why would the GOP Senate do away with the filibuster without holding the Presidency? The filibuster isn't what's keeping them from removing Biden in your prediction.
Depends on where they want to go. If I am right, America has crossed a Rubicon into kleptocratic thugocracy, and the filibuster, formerly beloved of the right, will be defenestrated onto the dungheap of history.
Through most of my lifetime, the traditional right revered the filibuster because it was their surety of safety as a numerical and political minority. With the filibuster, the solid South successfully sustained its one-party white supremacist regime. Since the civil rights era, the filibuster has been an increasingly important tool to protect an array of minority interests and block efforts at reform or change. It has occasionally been used by the center and center left, but the vast preponderance of benefit has accrued to the right side of the spectrum in general, and to the furthest right elements in particular.
So, you ask, why then would the Republican party want to do away with it?
The answer is -- the value of such a tool lies in its power to resist change while also agreeing to allow one's opponents a voice in the debate and a seat at the table. If one's aims are to prevent change, but do not extend to killing and jailing one's opposition, one is happy to have the polity stymied by such curiosities as filibusters. This has been the default preference of the center right, and even the deep right, ever since WWII. After all it's been the center left and strong left that have wanted to alter the settled order of things. The filibuster applies to everyone alike. If you aren't trying to make major alterations in the settled order of things, it's not a real problem if you let your opposition box you in once in a while. Nine out of ten times it's a winner for you. It's a one-way ratchet with all the leverage in your favor.
If, however, you decide you really do want to make serious modifications to the way things are, something that promotes stasis becomes an impediment rather than a blessing. And if you also now want not only to stymie your opponent, but actually destroy him, the impediment mutates from problem to threat.
It seems clear to me that the Republican base, and objectively its elected officeholders, no longer believe in or want an America where the rule of law constrains them. They may not yet be entirely aware of this yet, but a population that wants to overthrow electoral democracy, and yearns in its heart for a de facto white supremacist blood and soil ethnic minority-majority society, no longer needs or wants restraints like the filibuster available to its enemies.
We are probably going to see two years of increasing hysteria from the legislative branch. Whether they formally do away with the filibuster rule during this session or not depends on whether they start on a legislative agenda to complement their rage agenda.
The next administration, whether it's Trump or DeSantis or one of the other aspiring Mussolinis/Francos/Ordobans, will need a legislative agenda to permanently consolidate power. They'll want to federalize the leprous epidemic of vigilante revanchist culture war legislation now boiling out of state legislatures. They will want to suppress access to the ballot at the federal as well as state levels. They will want laws to complete takeover of the military, the Justice department, the IRS, and all the various Federal entities by their henchmen. They will want legislation to tie federal contracting and grants to cooperation with the regime. They will want broader arrest and detention powers. They will want to give law enforcement at all levels expanded authority to collect and use data on citizens' political as well as economic and legal activity and beliefs. The list goes on.
For these reasons the filibuster will not exist in future. There may be some ceremonial vestige such as the "Black Rod" ritual at the start of Parliament in Britain, but as a functional institution it will terminate next January when McConnell becomes majority leader.
The GOP will not do away with the filibuster before 2024 at the earliest. There is zero chance of it happening, short of the President and VP dying in office while the Republicans hold both houses of Congress and a Republican Speaker taking over. They derive no benefit from having it gone, because without a President, anything they pass can be vetoed, and they run the risk of Democrats taking total control of both branches and gaining compete control.
Even with a GOP Presidency, there's nothing McConnell wants to do except pass tax cuts for the rich and confirm Republican judges, neither of which is affected by the filibuster.