-300 seems a little high too me. I know it’s all about enthusiasm, but Trump is not on the ballot. I know he’ll probably be campaigning pretty hard in the Fall, but that will depend on how his candidates are polling. If Oz isn’t polling well, expect Trump to pretend he doesn’t know the guy. Fealty to Trump can only go so far.
Im pretty negative, but I think the odds of holding the Senate are not that bad. The house may be a foregone conclusion, but there is a glimmer of hope there. Because of Democratic gerrymandering the scales look relatively balanced. Inflation will be the biggest issue, and yes, Democrats will likely lose. However, there may not be a “bloodbath” because that’s hard to do with the new maps. Republicans may only end up with a 10 seat majority, and that may be small enough to stave off impeachment, for example. The Senate is far more important, because a Democratic White House and Senate can still confirm judges. Current odds on Republicans taking the house are -600. Keep in mind that just means having just one more seat than the other party.
-300 seems a little high too me. I know it’s all about enthusiasm, but Trump is not on the ballot. I know he’ll probably be campaigning pretty hard in the Fall, but that will depend on how his candidates are polling. If Oz isn’t polling well, expect Trump to pretend he doesn’t know the guy. Fealty to Trump can only go so far.
Im pretty negative, but I think the odds of holding the Senate are not that bad. The house may be a foregone conclusion, but there is a glimmer of hope there. Because of Democratic gerrymandering the scales look relatively balanced. Inflation will be the biggest issue, and yes, Democrats will likely lose. However, there may not be a “bloodbath” because that’s hard to do with the new maps. Republicans may only end up with a 10 seat majority, and that may be small enough to stave off impeachment, for example. The Senate is far more important, because a Democratic White House and Senate can still confirm judges. Current odds on Republicans taking the house are -600. Keep in mind that just means having just one more seat than the other party.