There was a special election in Florida House district recently vacated by a Republican. In a district with a significant Republican registration advantage (46 to 39%), Dems beat a well funded GOP candidate on the back of independent voters. That’s how elections all across the country in swing states would shape up giving Biden a signifi…
There was a special election in Florida House district recently vacated by a Republican. In a district with a significant Republican registration advantage (46 to 39%), Dems beat a well funded GOP candidate on the back of independent voters. That’s how elections all across the country in swing states would shape up giving Biden a significant win out of November. All because the GOP chose to nominate a fraudster and rapist.
I think that’s a good sign but don’t read too far into it. Democrats are winning off year and special elections because of the comically bad choices by the gop AND because Dems now have more high turnout base with more engaged voters. Trump has is hardcore floor of 40% but in there he’s got a ton of low propensity voters who only show up for him. It’ll be fascinating what happens when he finally kicks the bucket.
Your last sentence: Depends on how strong his hold is on the bureaucracy of the party/government. Most cults fall apart pretty quickly, but if they get a hold of the levers - Communists after Stalin, China after Mao - that's a different ball game.
I think it’s gonna outlast him, but there’s not going to be a single figure like him that draws more broadly due to his entertainer persona. Vivek is too whacky. DeSantis is awkward (his wife might though?). Haley is conventional by most counts, minus her deliberate brain fart on the civil war. Johnson is a weirdo religious guy, same as Pence. Jim Jordan and Matt Gaetz are reviled minus their district. Same goes for Boebert / MTG. Trump is a genuine anomaly similar to how Obama was/is for Democrats and liberal leaning voters.
My chief worry is if someone catches a fraction of Trump’s lightning in a bottle or if Trump wins. We’re well and truly fucked if that’s the case. See: Hungary. I’d normally include Poland in that assessment, but PiS pissed off everyone and unified a very diverse coalition…so maybe there’s a way out.
There was a special election in Florida House district recently vacated by a Republican. In a district with a significant Republican registration advantage (46 to 39%), Dems beat a well funded GOP candidate on the back of independent voters. That’s how elections all across the country in swing states would shape up giving Biden a significant win out of November. All because the GOP chose to nominate a fraudster and rapist.
Isn't it amazing that a party supposedly out of tough with "working class voters" keeps winning nearly all special elections and referendums?!
So weird.
I think that’s a good sign but don’t read too far into it. Democrats are winning off year and special elections because of the comically bad choices by the gop AND because Dems now have more high turnout base with more engaged voters. Trump has is hardcore floor of 40% but in there he’s got a ton of low propensity voters who only show up for him. It’ll be fascinating what happens when he finally kicks the bucket.
They will just write his name in as a final gasp of fealty.
Your last sentence: Depends on how strong his hold is on the bureaucracy of the party/government. Most cults fall apart pretty quickly, but if they get a hold of the levers - Communists after Stalin, China after Mao - that's a different ball game.
I think it’s gonna outlast him, but there’s not going to be a single figure like him that draws more broadly due to his entertainer persona. Vivek is too whacky. DeSantis is awkward (his wife might though?). Haley is conventional by most counts, minus her deliberate brain fart on the civil war. Johnson is a weirdo religious guy, same as Pence. Jim Jordan and Matt Gaetz are reviled minus their district. Same goes for Boebert / MTG. Trump is a genuine anomaly similar to how Obama was/is for Democrats and liberal leaning voters.
My chief worry is if someone catches a fraction of Trump’s lightning in a bottle or if Trump wins. We’re well and truly fucked if that’s the case. See: Hungary. I’d normally include Poland in that assessment, but PiS pissed off everyone and unified a very diverse coalition…so maybe there’s a way out.