Here's a perfect example of a "narrative" at work. I'm semi-retired, working 3 days a week in a small, family-owned tool and die shop. I'm the oldest guy there, even a few years older than the oldest of the brothers who own and run the place. One of the youngest guys on the floor is a young man of about 25 who's had a couple of other jobs before taking this one a couple years ago. He's not the sharpest tool in the shop in some ways, but he sure as hell isn't stupid by any means.
Some time ago after the Fed started its anti-inflation crusade, the kid said something to me one day about hoping he wasn't going to lose his job. I asked why in the world he was worried about that; the shop had lots of work and had been working overtime since before I'd started there nearly a year before. They'd been trying to hire more people for even longer than that with no success.
Turns out the kid (sorry, at my age anyone under 35 or so is a "kid") had been reading and listening to all the "recession" talk that was pretty much saturating the news at that point, and he was convinced a recession was on the way and that he'd probably get shown the door. At his age his "perspective" and lived experience regarding such things is quite limited, so I gave him the benefit of my much longer view. I told him anything was possible, but that if I were in his shoes, I wouldn't be quite so worried, especially considering the job situation he has, which is a pretty good one. He then spoke of his concerns about interest rates and the price of homes, since he hoped to be able to buy a small starter home soon.
It's true that at that time the housing market, especially in my state, had lost its frickin' mind, and mortgage rates were on the rise. I again gave him some perspective, having at his age experienced the hyper-inflation and, by today's standards, astronomical (14% at times) mortgage interest rates of the late 70s and early 80s. He was dumbfounded when I started by telling him that when I was his age I'd have "killed" to get a mortgage at 9 or 10%. I also spoke about how at some point the housing market would start to regain some sanity.
This kid's "smart" in most ways, but like all of us, his outlook on things is a result of the totality of his lived experiences, both educationally, "informationally" and "in the real world". And with his relatively short "experience" he was particularly vulnerable to the recession narrative then being promulgated in the mainstream media and the feelings of insecurity that comes from something like that.
We are all walking bundles of various biases, all influenced by the totality of our lived experiences. The insecurity this working-class kid felt was absolutely real, even if the underlying cause was a bit less than that. And that's where the "feelings don't matter, only the facts do" crowd gets it so wrong sometimes.
"We are all walking bundles of various biases, all influenced by the totality of our lived experiences. The insecurity this working-class kid felt was absolutely real, even if the underlying cause was a bit less than that. And that's where the 'feelings don't matter, only the facts do' crowd gets it so wrong sometimes."
RE: "selective stats and narratives"
Here's a perfect example of a "narrative" at work. I'm semi-retired, working 3 days a week in a small, family-owned tool and die shop. I'm the oldest guy there, even a few years older than the oldest of the brothers who own and run the place. One of the youngest guys on the floor is a young man of about 25 who's had a couple of other jobs before taking this one a couple years ago. He's not the sharpest tool in the shop in some ways, but he sure as hell isn't stupid by any means.
Some time ago after the Fed started its anti-inflation crusade, the kid said something to me one day about hoping he wasn't going to lose his job. I asked why in the world he was worried about that; the shop had lots of work and had been working overtime since before I'd started there nearly a year before. They'd been trying to hire more people for even longer than that with no success.
Turns out the kid (sorry, at my age anyone under 35 or so is a "kid") had been reading and listening to all the "recession" talk that was pretty much saturating the news at that point, and he was convinced a recession was on the way and that he'd probably get shown the door. At his age his "perspective" and lived experience regarding such things is quite limited, so I gave him the benefit of my much longer view. I told him anything was possible, but that if I were in his shoes, I wouldn't be quite so worried, especially considering the job situation he has, which is a pretty good one. He then spoke of his concerns about interest rates and the price of homes, since he hoped to be able to buy a small starter home soon.
It's true that at that time the housing market, especially in my state, had lost its frickin' mind, and mortgage rates were on the rise. I again gave him some perspective, having at his age experienced the hyper-inflation and, by today's standards, astronomical (14% at times) mortgage interest rates of the late 70s and early 80s. He was dumbfounded when I started by telling him that when I was his age I'd have "killed" to get a mortgage at 9 or 10%. I also spoke about how at some point the housing market would start to regain some sanity.
This kid's "smart" in most ways, but like all of us, his outlook on things is a result of the totality of his lived experiences, both educationally, "informationally" and "in the real world". And with his relatively short "experience" he was particularly vulnerable to the recession narrative then being promulgated in the mainstream media and the feelings of insecurity that comes from something like that.
We are all walking bundles of various biases, all influenced by the totality of our lived experiences. The insecurity this working-class kid felt was absolutely real, even if the underlying cause was a bit less than that. And that's where the "feelings don't matter, only the facts do" crowd gets it so wrong sometimes.
"We are all walking bundles of various biases, all influenced by the totality of our lived experiences. The insecurity this working-class kid felt was absolutely real, even if the underlying cause was a bit less than that. And that's where the 'feelings don't matter, only the facts do' crowd gets it so wrong sometimes."
Well said.