1. For a while, Putin’s oligarchs thought they had power independent of Putin. Putin put them in their place. The account in M. Gessen’s book on Putin’s rise suggests to me that discovering this power opened up a new and dangerous world for Putin. If Trump wins, he may also feel his Wheaties, and that’s not good for any of us.
2. The thing about a gravity well is that it’s a gradient around an entire planet. Of course we should nationalize any private business that tries to control it. But China won’t be thrilled about American government control of *its* gravity well (the same one the U.S. of A. is at the bottom of); neither will anyone else.
The difference between Putin v Oligarchs and Trump v Musk:
1) Putin could kill the oligarchs, Trump can't, therefor Trump has less leverage here
2) Putin's oligarchs were more transactional/corrupt and less ideological than the SV tech bro click is, and transactional people are easier to push around than committed ideologues are
3) People's 401ks didn't tank in Russia when their oligarchs got killed, whereas here if Trump throttles Tesla via going after Musk then markets feel the pinch (widespread pain vs concentrated pain)
4) Trump is (in theory at least) a lame duck, Putin was just getting started
There's probably a lot more big ticket differences, but these four alone make a night and day difference.
1. “Put them in their place” ≠ “murdered”. It obviously did, eventually, but it’s not how Putin discovered his monopoly on the use of government levers could beat the money guys.
2. Silicon Valley is *more* ideological and less transactional? Maybe it’s because I worked there, but I don’t see it. Each individually may think they have big ideas, and they may be attracted to Curtis Yarvin etc. because they want to feel like they’re involved in some big project, but can you describe the ‘-isms’ or issues that the tech CEOs are motivated by like, say, Leonard Leo or even Bill Gates are?
3. You think Trump’s been responsive to the markets in any way helpful to long-term retirement investors? I haven’t seen any evidence of that.
4. That was Sarah’s point. But no one has any use for “the 76th richest man in the world who was once the 1st”. Trump could deliver the “killing blow” (though again, I am *not* assuming murder, just, anything that could sap Elon’s relevancy and turn his life upside down) long before either his term or his life is up.
But overall you’re hewing much closer to the analogy than I was when I wrote my comment. My point was, Putin felt empowered by taking action against his oligarchs who crossed him when he discovered it worked. Trump has often shown he’s takes actions in a fit of pique, discovers they are working politically, and pushes. There’s a parallel there that doesn’t require him to start poisoning people with polonium to see it.
I'd just add that Putin took on his political rivals well before he took on the oligarchs, and the fates that befell his political rivals--like having their condos explode while they're still inside of them and then blaming it all on Chechen separatists--was probably enough to send a message to the oligarch community that they shouldn't get out of step with the new boss.
You can find the ideological flare in the tech bro oligarchs via their own writings and public statements, particularly with guys like Andreesen and Theil (Musk to a lesser degree as well). Musk's ideology has more to do with expanding the human footprint off of earth, but he believes himself a personal guiding force in that endeavor. That's ideological, not transactional. To the extent that these guys are transactional it's often in pursuit of their ideology. Short term tradeoffs for long term ideological advancement. But when transnationalism comes into conflict with ideology I expect these guys to take the short term financial pain in the name of keeping long term ideological aspirations alive and well. We saw a little bit of this with Musk and DOGE.
I don't think Trump's been responsive to the markets in any way that is long-term helpful, but he *has* been responsive to markets in the short term (walking back LibDay tariffs b/c of bond market, kicking CaMex tariffs down the road for the auto companies, delaying the TikTok ban, etc.).
I would add that Russia had no history of democracy either. It’s different here, still, where at some point it’s likely people will take to the streets. We are awfully slow to wake up though.
Putin was younger when he put the oligarchs in their place. I am often wrong about Trump, because my desires cloud my judgment, but Trump is old and canny without being smart. Idk, Elon is right that he’s going to be around for many years after Trump is gone.
I haven't been following this soap opera (that's The Bulwark's job!) but now I'm curious - did Musk actually tweet something like that? Sounds 'nasty', as trump loves to say (but only about women, it seems).
Two thoughts:
1. For a while, Putin’s oligarchs thought they had power independent of Putin. Putin put them in their place. The account in M. Gessen’s book on Putin’s rise suggests to me that discovering this power opened up a new and dangerous world for Putin. If Trump wins, he may also feel his Wheaties, and that’s not good for any of us.
2. The thing about a gravity well is that it’s a gradient around an entire planet. Of course we should nationalize any private business that tries to control it. But China won’t be thrilled about American government control of *its* gravity well (the same one the U.S. of A. is at the bottom of); neither will anyone else.
The difference between Putin v Oligarchs and Trump v Musk:
1) Putin could kill the oligarchs, Trump can't, therefor Trump has less leverage here
2) Putin's oligarchs were more transactional/corrupt and less ideological than the SV tech bro click is, and transactional people are easier to push around than committed ideologues are
3) People's 401ks didn't tank in Russia when their oligarchs got killed, whereas here if Trump throttles Tesla via going after Musk then markets feel the pinch (widespread pain vs concentrated pain)
4) Trump is (in theory at least) a lame duck, Putin was just getting started
There's probably a lot more big ticket differences, but these four alone make a night and day difference.
Why can’t Trump kill oligarchs?
I don’t think he will. I don’t think he should. But he can.
Speaking of China and the control of space, what would keep Musk from taking his Space X toys and throwing in with China?
Export restrictions
I think he (🍄🟫) can do away with people & has already. No evidence, but seems like it.
1. “Put them in their place” ≠ “murdered”. It obviously did, eventually, but it’s not how Putin discovered his monopoly on the use of government levers could beat the money guys.
2. Silicon Valley is *more* ideological and less transactional? Maybe it’s because I worked there, but I don’t see it. Each individually may think they have big ideas, and they may be attracted to Curtis Yarvin etc. because they want to feel like they’re involved in some big project, but can you describe the ‘-isms’ or issues that the tech CEOs are motivated by like, say, Leonard Leo or even Bill Gates are?
3. You think Trump’s been responsive to the markets in any way helpful to long-term retirement investors? I haven’t seen any evidence of that.
4. That was Sarah’s point. But no one has any use for “the 76th richest man in the world who was once the 1st”. Trump could deliver the “killing blow” (though again, I am *not* assuming murder, just, anything that could sap Elon’s relevancy and turn his life upside down) long before either his term or his life is up.
But overall you’re hewing much closer to the analogy than I was when I wrote my comment. My point was, Putin felt empowered by taking action against his oligarchs who crossed him when he discovered it worked. Trump has often shown he’s takes actions in a fit of pique, discovers they are working politically, and pushes. There’s a parallel there that doesn’t require him to start poisoning people with polonium to see it.
I'd just add that Putin took on his political rivals well before he took on the oligarchs, and the fates that befell his political rivals--like having their condos explode while they're still inside of them and then blaming it all on Chechen separatists--was probably enough to send a message to the oligarch community that they shouldn't get out of step with the new boss.
You can find the ideological flare in the tech bro oligarchs via their own writings and public statements, particularly with guys like Andreesen and Theil (Musk to a lesser degree as well). Musk's ideology has more to do with expanding the human footprint off of earth, but he believes himself a personal guiding force in that endeavor. That's ideological, not transactional. To the extent that these guys are transactional it's often in pursuit of their ideology. Short term tradeoffs for long term ideological advancement. But when transnationalism comes into conflict with ideology I expect these guys to take the short term financial pain in the name of keeping long term ideological aspirations alive and well. We saw a little bit of this with Musk and DOGE.
I don't think Trump's been responsive to the markets in any way that is long-term helpful, but he *has* been responsive to markets in the short term (walking back LibDay tariffs b/c of bond market, kicking CaMex tariffs down the road for the auto companies, delaying the TikTok ban, etc.).
I would add that Russia had no history of democracy either. It’s different here, still, where at some point it’s likely people will take to the streets. We are awfully slow to wake up though.
You think people would take to the streets *for Elon*? Do you think it will be in numbers greater than have been protesting at Tesla dealerships?
That’s not what I meant at all.
Putin was younger when he put the oligarchs in their place. I am often wrong about Trump, because my desires cloud my judgment, but Trump is old and canny without being smart. Idk, Elon is right that he’s going to be around for many years after Trump is gone.
Pregozhin probably thought that he’d outlived Putin too…
Ha! I did have to make a Putin-Prigozhin comp last night.
Dark humor. We think it’s impossible, but is it?
I haven't been following this soap opera (that's The Bulwark's job!) but now I'm curious - did Musk actually tweet something like that? Sounds 'nasty', as trump loves to say (but only about women, it seems).
Yes, he did in reply to a Laura Loomer tweet
Elon going to DefCon Epstein’s going to be a tough one to walk back—IMO