Even though Trump is polling low and people are upset about tariffs, I can't help feeling that if there were a presidential election tomorrow, Trump would still win. Crazy, right?
It depends on who the Democratic candidate is. If it's a normal guy who will take the fight to Trump like Gov Beshear, I think Trump's in trouble. I think Shapiro would do well as a candidate too.
I had a discussion with another Substacker who said Shapiro would be killed with the antiSemitism vote. But in Pennsylvania there are only 2% Jews and Shapiro won his election by 15 points where the middle of the state is basically deep Red Indiana. That shows Shapiro knows how to get votes in both Red and Blue areas. A good candidate who knows how to effectively attack Trump, engage the voters and avoid cultural issue traps has a better than even chance against Trump.
boy, sometimes it really hurts to hit that heart button when you agree, but HATE what you’re agreeing to!
You’re exactly right, though. I keep having to remind myself that a vast swathe of our fellow citizens don’t spend every spare (or non-spare) moment consuming The Bulwark, WaPo, NYT, The Contrarian, Robert Reich, The Guardian, Acosta, Ann Telnaes, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Adam Kinzinger, Andy Borowitz, Mary Trump AND SO ON, unlike me and (I assume) you, David. In fact, they get just a morsel here and there from a YouTube video or a wee FOX snack, before returning to reality TV or house renovation shows. They occupy a different (and not even parallel) universe which intersects with ours only at Trump.
Many of them will never hear about this thing with a plane from the Qatari govt., but even if they did, they wouldn’t recognize the word “Qatar.” How can you be furious about Trump glad-handing the infamous instigator of Jamal Kashoggi’s horrifying murder and dismemberment, when you’d never heard about it? And Trump points out that it would be stupid to decline a $400M plane from some foreign guys— isn’t he right? What’s wrong with it? and don’t say the weird word again about Emulsion or Monument clause or whatever— THAT sounds stupid, too!
So many people just chomping their way through the hay bales of life, not looking around, *not curious*, not thinking about stupid terms like “due process” and “habeas corpus” because they are meaningless in their simpler lives, where there are no shades of gray, just good and bad…and good is what THEY are, and their folks were, and their friends from high school are. SO clean and simple, not like us pushy liberals with our empathy and ethical questions, all nagging and tsk-tsking, and most of us not even Christians in the proper sense!
Thanks for Emulsion and Monuments. I needed that! God save us from those egghead words like emoluments. This is why I hate myself for it, but I almost want Trump's tariff extortion of the American wallet to "succeed." No cave to china, etc. Because as always, it will have to be the economy, stupid. Which Carville said a long time ago, and remains as true today. Too many folks right now probably would re-elect Trump. But the pain to the pocketbook hasn't really hit, not yet. When it does, those who are 30% his hardcore sycophants will of course not agree he's hurting them. The same ones who refused Covid vaccines and died. But the more reasonable middler's may be ready to distance themselves. Starting in say in 2026. Pain, specifically economic pain, may the only awful motivator that can shock them off of their idol once and for all. I think we have to accept that, but it is terribly sad.
Even though Trump is polling low and people are upset about tariffs, I can't help feeling that if there were a presidential election tomorrow, Trump would still win. Crazy, right?
Not too crazy when he’s already won 2 times out of 3!
It depends on who the Democratic candidate is. If it's a normal guy who will take the fight to Trump like Gov Beshear, I think Trump's in trouble. I think Shapiro would do well as a candidate too.
I had a discussion with another Substacker who said Shapiro would be killed with the antiSemitism vote. But in Pennsylvania there are only 2% Jews and Shapiro won his election by 15 points where the middle of the state is basically deep Red Indiana. That shows Shapiro knows how to get votes in both Red and Blue areas. A good candidate who knows how to effectively attack Trump, engage the voters and avoid cultural issue traps has a better than even chance against Trump.
boy, sometimes it really hurts to hit that heart button when you agree, but HATE what you’re agreeing to!
You’re exactly right, though. I keep having to remind myself that a vast swathe of our fellow citizens don’t spend every spare (or non-spare) moment consuming The Bulwark, WaPo, NYT, The Contrarian, Robert Reich, The Guardian, Acosta, Ann Telnaes, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Adam Kinzinger, Andy Borowitz, Mary Trump AND SO ON, unlike me and (I assume) you, David. In fact, they get just a morsel here and there from a YouTube video or a wee FOX snack, before returning to reality TV or house renovation shows. They occupy a different (and not even parallel) universe which intersects with ours only at Trump.
Many of them will never hear about this thing with a plane from the Qatari govt., but even if they did, they wouldn’t recognize the word “Qatar.” How can you be furious about Trump glad-handing the infamous instigator of Jamal Kashoggi’s horrifying murder and dismemberment, when you’d never heard about it? And Trump points out that it would be stupid to decline a $400M plane from some foreign guys— isn’t he right? What’s wrong with it? and don’t say the weird word again about Emulsion or Monument clause or whatever— THAT sounds stupid, too!
So many people just chomping their way through the hay bales of life, not looking around, *not curious*, not thinking about stupid terms like “due process” and “habeas corpus” because they are meaningless in their simpler lives, where there are no shades of gray, just good and bad…and good is what THEY are, and their folks were, and their friends from high school are. SO clean and simple, not like us pushy liberals with our empathy and ethical questions, all nagging and tsk-tsking, and most of us not even Christians in the proper sense!
Thanks for Emulsion and Monuments. I needed that! God save us from those egghead words like emoluments. This is why I hate myself for it, but I almost want Trump's tariff extortion of the American wallet to "succeed." No cave to china, etc. Because as always, it will have to be the economy, stupid. Which Carville said a long time ago, and remains as true today. Too many folks right now probably would re-elect Trump. But the pain to the pocketbook hasn't really hit, not yet. When it does, those who are 30% his hardcore sycophants will of course not agree he's hurting them. The same ones who refused Covid vaccines and died. But the more reasonable middler's may be ready to distance themselves. Starting in say in 2026. Pain, specifically economic pain, may the only awful motivator that can shock them off of their idol once and for all. I think we have to accept that, but it is terribly sad.