I really hate this take. The loons on the left are recognized as loons even by those ON the left, and they are relegated to the fringe where they can safely rant and rave without hurting anything. The loons on the right are literally running Congress right now. Stop both-sidesing this.
We got loons in the middle too! See one Joe Manchin toying with running no labels. I believe he was sainted here at the Bulwark as well. Which one is more likely to hand Trump a victory, Manchin or that other guy whose name I've already forgotten?
This assumes the People's Party can even get on the ballot in many states that matter. Kanye's ratf*ck candidacy didn't and he had the full (informal) backing of Trumpworld
"You could call it a houseboat, but that would be like calling Air Force One a plane. Within the sunny, air-conditioned confines of the custom-built, 65-by-20-foot, three-story steel hull, David has packaged more space and amenities than most apartments and condominiums and many houses. The 1,500 square feet of interior living space embrace 3 1/2 bedrooms (including a 14-by-20-foot master suite), 3 1/2 bathrooms, and a bright and open living/dining area (complete with a granite dining table) where the DeLanceys have comfortably entertained as many as 50 people to watch a Blue Angels air show or the colorful start of major yacht races on the bay.
"Canadian Tad Roberts has worked as a naval architect since the 1980s, responsible for some of the most iconic yacht designs of his generation. Roberts and Fickett both place the value of Almost Heaven at about $300,000, noting that unlike yachts whose furnishings are built into the boat, ManchinтАЩs consists of freestanding household items (and a lot of throw pillows). The Delanceys told the Post they spent $900,000 building and outfitting the boat. The cost to build the boat new could be anywhere between one- and two-million dollars, according to the experts interviewed for this article." -from the West Virginian TImes
I'd bet against that proposition. WV has left him behind. His contrary Dem routine isn't going to save him from the conservative propaganda machine. My self styled moderate WV in-law who mainlines Fox News has had many new complaints about him to share in the last year. She may still vote for him because her town has personal experience with Jim Justice but still his prospects seem rocky at best. Probably why he's toying with a No Labels lifeline.
Thank goodness he saved the filibuster so McConnell could do the honors of getting rid of it when it is advantageous to Republicans though. May his name be praised.
I don't have a relative in WV so my take may be dated.
But Justice is corrupt and has been for years.
Here's my bet.
If Manchin does hold onto his seat, McConnell can kiss any cooperation from him good bye. Justice is the best shot of Republicans flipping a senator who has been highly useful to them.
But Manchin is likely to see that as a betrayal.
So if he loses, they're in a great place.
But if he wins, it will be in spite of them.
And Joe Manchin doesn't strike me as a forgive and forget kind of guy.
Just like one Donald J Trump. As long as Justice's corruption is wielded against the proper people it probably won't be an issue in +39ish R WV which will have had 4 years of the Dems are the anti-christ bullshit to stew in by the time the election rolls around.
========================
If Manchin wins its only half a win in terms of fighting for Democracy. He at least blocks an authoritarian puppet if he does win but he won't provide any push to fix things long term. That is better than nothing but he's no savior.
I don't understand the vitriol against Manchin. As Bridget Collins mentioned, he is probably the only Dem that could win in WV. He votes with the party on most issues, and the high profile issues were he hasn't would have sealed his doom in the upcoming election.
I don't know WV politics but it seems to me that his future might be more secure if he switched parties. That wouldn't be a good thing.
Because I think he, and by extension the other self styled moderates in the party, aren't delivering on what I thought was the key issue of 2020 and the "coalition of the sane" in general: saving democracy. If democracy is really on the verge of going away then something ought to be done about that right? Rather than put into place fixes to the authoritarian party overreaches of the last decade or so all that has largely been ignored in the pursuit of business as usual. While that increases short term stability it also makes it more difficult for the "coalition of the sane" to sell the, imo, correct idea that Republicans are a party of authoritarians and their attendant apologists and opportunists and they must not only be defeated but humbled. Without that they will not correct course and put Democracy on secure footing again. Thus business as usual weakens the ability to save Democracy long term.
Not only that, but Manchin himself is now flirting with a 3rd party run for Pres which, even if he doesn't ultimately plan to do it, will give the No Labels party oxygen and momentum to peel off more people. So he truly doesn't believe Democracy is on the ballot or he just never cared.
True, Manchin would have likely been voted out had he done more. Again, I think that is going to happen anyway which means he just wasted the entire Dem party's shot at making real changes for nothing. More importantly though, I keep hearing lamentations on this site about how there aren't enough good Republicans standing up to the MAGAs. The theory being that if they'd just not be so cowardly they could make a difference even if it costs them their career. Should that not apply to the moderates as well? Why are they getting a pass on this?
I understand the idea that if Manchin is going to go down he might as well go down swinging. I'm just not sure he's going to go down. And holding on to every seat possible is going to be real important in the next election.
I have no idea why he would run as the No Labels candidate. I can't see any way it would be in his interest. Is that something he has said he is considering or is it just a rumor that is circulating?
"I understand the idea that if Manchin is going to go down he might as well go down swinging. I'm just not sure he's going to go down."
Manchin won by the skin of his teeth in 2018. He got less than 50% of the vote. In 2016 Trump got 68.5% to 26.4% for Clinton. In 2020, after Covid and *almost* everything else that happened while Trump was in office he won 68.6% against moderate darling Biden who only pulled an extra 3%ish at the expense of 3rd party candidates (1/3rd of which was Green party votes). Since then the Republican party and their voters have shrugged off a coup attempt and the propaganda machine has switched to even more bold faced lies than before.
The recent polls that pit Manchin against Justice have been bad and trending worse:
Jan 2022 - Manchin +4 (I doubt the propaganda mill had started its work at this point)
I get your point which is, I think, about the need to strike while the iron is hot. The reason I'm willing to cut Manchin some slack is because it is necessary to allow candidates to take positions that may not align with the party in order to be or remain electable. That may not work out for Manchin but I understand it as a strategy.
I remember the anger against Claire McCaskill a while back. I don't know how much that played into her defeat but Josh Hawley now holds that seat.
I understand that there is a reflex to punch left here, but we should examine who is actually running the country and in what fashion they are governing before we actually do punch left.
I donтАЩt understand your original critique in that case. Because Biden certainly isnтАЩt left. He scares the right. But has already beaten Trump and positioned best to beat Trump again.
Does Biden really тАЬscare the right?тАЭ I guess this is a hard question because right wing voters are so different from right-wing establishment types. And even within those categories, there are lots of subtypes.
In my mind, the people who тАЬscare the rightтАЭ in terms of the Republican establishment are Democratic politicians with broad popular appeal like Bill Clinton or Barrack Obama. Think about how aggressively the Republican establishment attacked each of them. Biden? Not so much.
So we should only punch who then? Minorities? LGBTQ people? immigrants? Strong women? and people who want common sense gun control? Because it seems to me that those are folks who seem to тАЬscare the rightтАЭ the most.
Ok IтАЩll rephrase: тАЬSo we should punch who then? Political candidates who support minority rights, immigration, reproductive rights, and permit less carry?
The whole question of тАЬelectabilityтАЭ is complicated for many reasons. If a politician is willing to do anything to appease voters from the opposing party - including compromising on important principles, then they will (rightly) be perceived as weak and unprincipled and be reviled by even the moderates in their own party. History has not been kind to Neville Chamberlain and Andrew Johnson.
OTOH, if youтАЩre too rigid and unwilling to compromise on anything or adopt only the most extreme agenda of the people in your party, then you will obviously alienate some moderates who *might* otherwise have voted for you.
The other complicated issue is that тАЬthe rightтАЭ is too broad a term that means different things to different people and therefore doesnтАЩt really mean much. ThereтАЩs the mostly irrelevant old тАЬconservative Inc./ establishment rightтАЭ who care about things like small government, defending democracy at home and abroad and social conservativism(ie religion/family values); thereтАЩs also the new college-educated populist right who watch a lot of Ben Shapiro and Jordan Peterson and are mostly young white kids who enjoy complaining about тАЬthe woke mind virusтАЭ and how CRT and DEI and ESG are ruining America; then thereтАЩs the extreme populist/MAGA right who are not college educated and usually come from rural areas or defunct factory towns (flyover country) and feel like they have been left behind and canтАЩt see a place for themselves to thrive in a new era dominated by tech jobs and rapid social change. These people have been hit the hardest by Covid shutdowns, inflation and тАЬdeaths of despairтАЭ. They are angry and rather than try to figure out how to change and adapt, they like Trump because he tells them they donтАЩt need to change- they just need to burn everything to the ground.
A good politician should not just focus on тАЬelectabilityтАЭ (if by that you mean a synonym for тАЬpopularityтАЭ). They should be strong leaders who tell their constituents whatтАЩs best for the country instead of blindly listening to what they think is best. They should be strong and unbending on important issues like the importance of vaccination, not defaulting on the debt and defending Ukraine but willing to compromise on spending, temporarily opening up fossil fuel reserves to limit gas prices and handling the issue of immigration in a mature, pragmatic but compassionate manner. And remain silent on issues that may be politically divisive but have little to no real political importance. Biden is an excellent model of this approach- and itтАЩs not an easy one!
So I donтАЩt think a moderate, left of center Democrat who is willing to compromise on some, but not all, issues with moderate, non-lunatic Republicans is тАЬunelectableтАЭ. Of course for some Republicans, especially those who streamline Fox/Newsmax/OAN, no amount of compromise will ever get them to elect anyone with a тАЬDтАЭ next to their name. I donтАЩt see any point in trying to woo these people or go out of the way not to accidentally offend them or enact policies that are good for the country even if it тАЬscares themтАЭ.
Okay, now I'll rephrase. I could have lived easily with a President Nader, but a vote for him was a vote for GW Bush, the invasion of Iraq, and maybe even Trump. But he was oh so pure...
IтАЩm sorry but I canтАЩt figure out w if at your point is here or how it relates to anything IтАЩve said. I fear weтАЩre probably talking past each other.
You mistook my original comment as an attack on women, minorities, etc. My point was that the most supportive candidate vis a vis those people isn't worth anything if un-electable. Politics is the art of the possible.
Loons to the left, loons to the right. Stuck in the middle with Bulwark?
I really hate this take. The loons on the left are recognized as loons even by those ON the left, and they are relegated to the fringe where they can safely rant and rave without hurting anything. The loons on the right are literally running Congress right now. Stop both-sidesing this.
Cannot agree with you more!
We got loons in the middle too! See one Joe Manchin toying with running no labels. I believe he was sainted here at the Bulwark as well. Which one is more likely to hand Trump a victory, Manchin or that other guy whose name I've already forgotten?
I wouldn't underestimate the damage Cornel West could do by peeling black voters away from Biden in a very close election.
Black voters are practical people. ThatтАЩs how we got Biden.
This assumes the People's Party can even get on the ballot in many states that matter. Kanye's ratf*ck candidacy didn't and he had the full (informal) backing of Trumpworld
He'd only have to swing the outcome in a few swing states in order to flip the election to Trump or whomever.
Kanye was a crackpot. West is sane and serious.
Yeah, right.
"You could call it a houseboat, but that would be like calling Air Force One a plane. Within the sunny, air-conditioned confines of the custom-built, 65-by-20-foot, three-story steel hull, David has packaged more space and amenities than most apartments and condominiums and many houses. The 1,500 square feet of interior living space embrace 3 1/2 bedrooms (including a 14-by-20-foot master suite), 3 1/2 bathrooms, and a bright and open living/dining area (complete with a granite dining table) where the DeLanceys have comfortably entertained as many as 50 people to watch a Blue Angels air show or the colorful start of major yacht races on the bay.
"Canadian Tad Roberts has worked as a naval architect since the 1980s, responsible for some of the most iconic yacht designs of his generation. Roberts and Fickett both place the value of Almost Heaven at about $300,000, noting that unlike yachts whose furnishings are built into the boat, ManchinтАЩs consists of freestanding household items (and a lot of throw pillows). The Delanceys told the Post they spent $900,000 building and outfitting the boat. The cost to build the boat new could be anywhere between one- and two-million dollars, according to the experts interviewed for this article." -from the West Virginian TImes
1,500 square feet is generous but not palatial. I'm glad there's enough space for him to entertain on his boat. He gets it done in DC.
I grew up on boats. If it's 65 feet long and isn't a work barge... that's a yacht.
Please remember this is not his primary residence either.
And no, saying someone has a yacht is not "slander".
Speak for yourself, I like him ....of course I am not a progressive, just a normal liberal
And West Virginians.
Unlike Sinema, Joe Manchin probably is the only Democrat who could win in West Virginia.
And he will probably beat Justice. As long as he can run as a contrary Democrat.
I'd bet against that proposition. WV has left him behind. His contrary Dem routine isn't going to save him from the conservative propaganda machine. My self styled moderate WV in-law who mainlines Fox News has had many new complaints about him to share in the last year. She may still vote for him because her town has personal experience with Jim Justice but still his prospects seem rocky at best. Probably why he's toying with a No Labels lifeline.
Thank goodness he saved the filibuster so McConnell could do the honors of getting rid of it when it is advantageous to Republicans though. May his name be praised.
Maybe.
I don't have a relative in WV so my take may be dated.
But Justice is corrupt and has been for years.
Here's my bet.
If Manchin does hold onto his seat, McConnell can kiss any cooperation from him good bye. Justice is the best shot of Republicans flipping a senator who has been highly useful to them.
But Manchin is likely to see that as a betrayal.
So if he loses, they're in a great place.
But if he wins, it will be in spite of them.
And Joe Manchin doesn't strike me as a forgive and forget kind of guy.
"But Justice is corrupt and has been for years."
Just like one Donald J Trump. As long as Justice's corruption is wielded against the proper people it probably won't be an issue in +39ish R WV which will have had 4 years of the Dems are the anti-christ bullshit to stew in by the time the election rolls around.
========================
If Manchin wins its only half a win in terms of fighting for Democracy. He at least blocks an authoritarian puppet if he does win but he won't provide any push to fix things long term. That is better than nothing but he's no savior.
I don't understand the vitriol against Manchin. As Bridget Collins mentioned, he is probably the only Dem that could win in WV. He votes with the party on most issues, and the high profile issues were he hasn't would have sealed his doom in the upcoming election.
I don't know WV politics but it seems to me that his future might be more secure if he switched parties. That wouldn't be a good thing.
Because I think he, and by extension the other self styled moderates in the party, aren't delivering on what I thought was the key issue of 2020 and the "coalition of the sane" in general: saving democracy. If democracy is really on the verge of going away then something ought to be done about that right? Rather than put into place fixes to the authoritarian party overreaches of the last decade or so all that has largely been ignored in the pursuit of business as usual. While that increases short term stability it also makes it more difficult for the "coalition of the sane" to sell the, imo, correct idea that Republicans are a party of authoritarians and their attendant apologists and opportunists and they must not only be defeated but humbled. Without that they will not correct course and put Democracy on secure footing again. Thus business as usual weakens the ability to save Democracy long term.
Not only that, but Manchin himself is now flirting with a 3rd party run for Pres which, even if he doesn't ultimately plan to do it, will give the No Labels party oxygen and momentum to peel off more people. So he truly doesn't believe Democracy is on the ballot or he just never cared.
True, Manchin would have likely been voted out had he done more. Again, I think that is going to happen anyway which means he just wasted the entire Dem party's shot at making real changes for nothing. More importantly though, I keep hearing lamentations on this site about how there aren't enough good Republicans standing up to the MAGAs. The theory being that if they'd just not be so cowardly they could make a difference even if it costs them their career. Should that not apply to the moderates as well? Why are they getting a pass on this?
I understand the idea that if Manchin is going to go down he might as well go down swinging. I'm just not sure he's going to go down. And holding on to every seat possible is going to be real important in the next election.
I have no idea why he would run as the No Labels candidate. I can't see any way it would be in his interest. Is that something he has said he is considering or is it just a rumor that is circulating?
Here is an article:
https://theintercept.com/2023/05/16/no-labels-2024-election-lawsuit/
It was linked to in the Bulwark article here:
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/how-many-people-running-for-president-now-2024
=====================
"I understand the idea that if Manchin is going to go down he might as well go down swinging. I'm just not sure he's going to go down."
Manchin won by the skin of his teeth in 2018. He got less than 50% of the vote. In 2016 Trump got 68.5% to 26.4% for Clinton. In 2020, after Covid and *almost* everything else that happened while Trump was in office he won 68.6% against moderate darling Biden who only pulled an extra 3%ish at the expense of 3rd party candidates (1/3rd of which was Green party votes). Since then the Republican party and their voters have shrugged off a coup attempt and the propaganda machine has switched to even more bold faced lies than before.
The recent polls that pit Manchin against Justice have been bad and trending worse:
Jan 2022 - Manchin +4 (I doubt the propaganda mill had started its work at this point)
Aug 2022 - Justice +15
Feb 2023 - Justice +10
Apr 2023 - Justice +14
May 2023 - Justice +22
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/west-virginia/
I guess one could hope Justice doesn't win the primary?
https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/04-3-2023/desperately-seeking-justice/
That's not looking likely either.
I thought it was the progs who were supposed to be the dewy eyed idealists that sacrifice the possible for unattainable perfection.
I get your point which is, I think, about the need to strike while the iron is hot. The reason I'm willing to cut Manchin some slack is because it is necessary to allow candidates to take positions that may not align with the party in order to be or remain electable. That may not work out for Manchin but I understand it as a strategy.
I remember the anger against Claire McCaskill a while back. I don't know how much that played into her defeat but Josh Hawley now holds that seat.
As I said, I don't know WV politcs but, yeah, that sure doesn't look encouraging.
I understand that there is a reflex to punch left here, but we should examine who is actually running the country and in what fashion they are governing before we actually do punch left.
I punch Left at any candidate whose views would guarantee another Trump victory.
I guess Manchin is to the left of Trump, so punch away.
I don't like Manchin, but he's the opposite of the kind of candidate I was referring to. He doesn't scare the Right.
I donтАЩt understand your original critique in that case. Because Biden certainly isnтАЩt left. He scares the right. But has already beaten Trump and positioned best to beat Trump again.
Does Biden really тАЬscare the right?тАЭ I guess this is a hard question because right wing voters are so different from right-wing establishment types. And even within those categories, there are lots of subtypes.
In my mind, the people who тАЬscare the rightтАЭ in terms of the Republican establishment are Democratic politicians with broad popular appeal like Bill Clinton or Barrack Obama. Think about how aggressively the Republican establishment attacked each of them. Biden? Not so much.
So we should only punch who then? Minorities? LGBTQ people? immigrants? Strong women? and people who want common sense gun control? Because it seems to me that those are folks who seem to тАЬscare the rightтАЭ the most.
I was talking about candidates, not minorities. Think about the word "unelectable."--why that is.
Ok IтАЩll rephrase: тАЬSo we should punch who then? Political candidates who support minority rights, immigration, reproductive rights, and permit less carry?
The whole question of тАЬelectabilityтАЭ is complicated for many reasons. If a politician is willing to do anything to appease voters from the opposing party - including compromising on important principles, then they will (rightly) be perceived as weak and unprincipled and be reviled by even the moderates in their own party. History has not been kind to Neville Chamberlain and Andrew Johnson.
OTOH, if youтАЩre too rigid and unwilling to compromise on anything or adopt only the most extreme agenda of the people in your party, then you will obviously alienate some moderates who *might* otherwise have voted for you.
The other complicated issue is that тАЬthe rightтАЭ is too broad a term that means different things to different people and therefore doesnтАЩt really mean much. ThereтАЩs the mostly irrelevant old тАЬconservative Inc./ establishment rightтАЭ who care about things like small government, defending democracy at home and abroad and social conservativism(ie religion/family values); thereтАЩs also the new college-educated populist right who watch a lot of Ben Shapiro and Jordan Peterson and are mostly young white kids who enjoy complaining about тАЬthe woke mind virusтАЭ and how CRT and DEI and ESG are ruining America; then thereтАЩs the extreme populist/MAGA right who are not college educated and usually come from rural areas or defunct factory towns (flyover country) and feel like they have been left behind and canтАЩt see a place for themselves to thrive in a new era dominated by tech jobs and rapid social change. These people have been hit the hardest by Covid shutdowns, inflation and тАЬdeaths of despairтАЭ. They are angry and rather than try to figure out how to change and adapt, they like Trump because he tells them they donтАЩt need to change- they just need to burn everything to the ground.
A good politician should not just focus on тАЬelectabilityтАЭ (if by that you mean a synonym for тАЬpopularityтАЭ). They should be strong leaders who tell their constituents whatтАЩs best for the country instead of blindly listening to what they think is best. They should be strong and unbending on important issues like the importance of vaccination, not defaulting on the debt and defending Ukraine but willing to compromise on spending, temporarily opening up fossil fuel reserves to limit gas prices and handling the issue of immigration in a mature, pragmatic but compassionate manner. And remain silent on issues that may be politically divisive but have little to no real political importance. Biden is an excellent model of this approach- and itтАЩs not an easy one!
So I donтАЩt think a moderate, left of center Democrat who is willing to compromise on some, but not all, issues with moderate, non-lunatic Republicans is тАЬunelectableтАЭ. Of course for some Republicans, especially those who streamline Fox/Newsmax/OAN, no amount of compromise will ever get them to elect anyone with a тАЬDтАЭ next to their name. I donтАЩt see any point in trying to woo these people or go out of the way not to accidentally offend them or enact policies that are good for the country even if it тАЬscares themтАЭ.
Okay, now I'll rephrase. I could have lived easily with a President Nader, but a vote for him was a vote for GW Bush, the invasion of Iraq, and maybe even Trump. But he was oh so pure...
IтАЩm sorry but I canтАЩt figure out w if at your point is here or how it relates to anything IтАЩve said. I fear weтАЩre probably talking past each other.
You mistook my original comment as an attack on women, minorities, etc. My point was that the most supportive candidate vis a vis those people isn't worth anything if un-electable. Politics is the art of the possible.
This is so frustrating.
Look at what the mainstream Republicans are doing! Look at what this fringe third party candidate who will have no political impact is doing!
Both sides amirite? *wink*