"Since the advent of the modern primary election system in 1972, an incumbent president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, though every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to be defeated in the general election."
"Since the advent of the modern primary election system in 1972, an incumbent president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, though every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to be defeated in the general election."
That is the argument I hear. The counterargument is that history surprises, and this election is structurally way different and analogizing from the past 50 years is not appropriate. Personally when I look for a similar historical moment I go to the 1850s as much as the 1970s. We are off the normal playbook.
"Since the advent of the modern primary election system in 1972, an incumbent president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, though every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to be defeated in the general election."
That is the argument I hear. The counterargument is that history surprises, and this election is structurally way different and analogizing from the past 50 years is not appropriate. Personally when I look for a similar historical moment I go to the 1850s as much as the 1970s. We are off the normal playbook.