I think it will come much more quickly! Kevin McCarthy will seek to let Ukraine fall to Russia, perhaps at Elon Musk's urging. Russia will then turn to NATO countries. And we'll be lucky to avoid nukes falling on Omaha at that point.
Perhaps, but I don't think so. Even if Russia manages to win, they'll be weak for quite some time. They'll use energy and food as weapons on Europe to weaken it long term. In the shorter term Taiwan will get sold down the river and China will be flexing while much of the globe re-assesses the geopolitical calculus. But at the end of the day, just like we don't have NATO planes bombing Russia to force an end in Ukraine, our nuclear shield will protect us for quite a while.
We'll see more of a return to the great power game, but with the US significantly weakened.
I know this discussion is more of a general thought exercise of the consequences of falling to an authoritarian GOP under Trump, but I struggle to see how we even make it to the point of finding out.
If Trump is a free man and the Republican nominee next year, I'm not so sure we'll get as far as the election before civil conflict escalates and things start to fall apart.
I just don't see how we can have a peaceful campaign with him as a candidate. I can't begin to wrap my brain around the idea of another Trump campaign, not to mention the possibility of him being President again. Many tens of millions of my fellow citizens feel the same way. On the other hand, another couple tens of millions of my fellow Americans would not accept the idea of him losing.
For our fellow citizens to even nominate him again feels like the equivalent of a kamikaze act of (civil) war - "screw you, try to stop him, and us".
He cannot be the nominee. Then we can have that discussion about what a Desantis(?)/GOP authoritarian-lite US looks like.
I agree about not wanting him as the nominee. That aside, if he's the nominee and wins, I don't think we get civil war. If he's the nominee and loses, I think the feds and military put a cap on any violence pretty quickly. It may be ugly for a bit, but for all the bluster out there, I don't think we get sustained violence.
The scenario that has me worried is if he loses according to the votes, but Republicans pull their stunts with ignoring the votes in certain states and we then have a contested situation (worse than last time). That might get enough people fired up on both sides to devolve into a shit show, especially if the military isn't 100% clear on who it should be following (Jan 21st, for instance).
I hope you're right. But I think as the GOP sides with Russia, leaving Europe unprotected ultimately, again, it won't take long. And the US under the GOP may look like the best prize of all to a Putin or a Xi or even Iran or No Korea. It is the GOP siding with Russia that is the REAL WEAKNESS on the international stage I think. Only a united Free World can withstand a united authoritarian one I fear.
The GOP under Trump could be a real problem in that regard, but I don't think the GOP actively switches sides so much as just goes hands off. In the short term, Europe can defend itself and even the GOP is smart enough to know that a devastated Europe is going to be bad for the US economy.
Even in the long term, I'd guess Europe gets its act together enough to face down Russia. The problem comes from them being a besieged island rather than an expanding powerbase. It also comes from an emboldened China. Russia has a lot of nukes, but they can't project power. They're going to be China's lackey for a long time to come in a world where authoritarianism is on the march. In such a world China isn't going to 'let' Russia destabilize a world it is conquering through soft power while America sleeps.
I think it will come much more quickly! Kevin McCarthy will seek to let Ukraine fall to Russia, perhaps at Elon Musk's urging. Russia will then turn to NATO countries. And we'll be lucky to avoid nukes falling on Omaha at that point.
Perhaps, but I don't think so. Even if Russia manages to win, they'll be weak for quite some time. They'll use energy and food as weapons on Europe to weaken it long term. In the shorter term Taiwan will get sold down the river and China will be flexing while much of the globe re-assesses the geopolitical calculus. But at the end of the day, just like we don't have NATO planes bombing Russia to force an end in Ukraine, our nuclear shield will protect us for quite a while.
We'll see more of a return to the great power game, but with the US significantly weakened.
I know this discussion is more of a general thought exercise of the consequences of falling to an authoritarian GOP under Trump, but I struggle to see how we even make it to the point of finding out.
If Trump is a free man and the Republican nominee next year, I'm not so sure we'll get as far as the election before civil conflict escalates and things start to fall apart.
I just don't see how we can have a peaceful campaign with him as a candidate. I can't begin to wrap my brain around the idea of another Trump campaign, not to mention the possibility of him being President again. Many tens of millions of my fellow citizens feel the same way. On the other hand, another couple tens of millions of my fellow Americans would not accept the idea of him losing.
For our fellow citizens to even nominate him again feels like the equivalent of a kamikaze act of (civil) war - "screw you, try to stop him, and us".
He cannot be the nominee. Then we can have that discussion about what a Desantis(?)/GOP authoritarian-lite US looks like.
Hard to see, the future is. - Yoda
I agree about not wanting him as the nominee. That aside, if he's the nominee and wins, I don't think we get civil war. If he's the nominee and loses, I think the feds and military put a cap on any violence pretty quickly. It may be ugly for a bit, but for all the bluster out there, I don't think we get sustained violence.
The scenario that has me worried is if he loses according to the votes, but Republicans pull their stunts with ignoring the votes in certain states and we then have a contested situation (worse than last time). That might get enough people fired up on both sides to devolve into a shit show, especially if the military isn't 100% clear on who it should be following (Jan 21st, for instance).
I hope you're right. But I think as the GOP sides with Russia, leaving Europe unprotected ultimately, again, it won't take long. And the US under the GOP may look like the best prize of all to a Putin or a Xi or even Iran or No Korea. It is the GOP siding with Russia that is the REAL WEAKNESS on the international stage I think. Only a united Free World can withstand a united authoritarian one I fear.
The GOP under Trump could be a real problem in that regard, but I don't think the GOP actively switches sides so much as just goes hands off. In the short term, Europe can defend itself and even the GOP is smart enough to know that a devastated Europe is going to be bad for the US economy.
Even in the long term, I'd guess Europe gets its act together enough to face down Russia. The problem comes from them being a besieged island rather than an expanding powerbase. It also comes from an emboldened China. Russia has a lot of nukes, but they can't project power. They're going to be China's lackey for a long time to come in a world where authoritarianism is on the march. In such a world China isn't going to 'let' Russia destabilize a world it is conquering through soft power while America sleeps.