"Trump won in 2024 because voters were upset about the persistent inflation resulting from COVID and were nostalgic for Trump’s pre-COVID economy and suckered by his “businessman” mythology. Trump was further helped by Biden being too compromised by age to be an effective communicator for his own policies."
This conclusion makes us feel better about the American voter, but I just can't get to this conclusion, because I saw the campaigns.
Trump ran one ad everywhere all the time because his team, based on their internal data, determined it was their most effective ad. Was this an ad about Joe Biden's "terrible" economy and how Trump would fix it on day one? Was it about inflation? No. It was about trans people. It was about how Kamala is for they them, and Trump is for you. I missed the economic message in their most impactful ad.
This is why, when people say they voted for Trump because of the economy, my reaction is, No, why did you really vote for Trump?
Don’t conflate the fact that a few points-worth of otherwise Democratic-leaning voters defected over the trans ad to that being the primary reason people voted.
There were plenty of other things going on. If the job of VP—as John McCain once said is to check on the President’s health daily and go to foreign dictators’ funerals, Harris was utterly negligent in the first part—that the rest of the staff and mainstream media were complicit is not an excuse: it was her job first and foremost to recognize Biden was not up to it if he wouldn’t recognize it himself.
And if she determined Biden was too old what was she supposed to do? Launch a coup? Scream about enacting the 25th amendment? What VP is his/her right mind would do that? She'd be vilified by the president's advisers, labeled disloyal and cut loose, all to Trump's benefit. This is Biden's cross to bear, not Harris's.
And to be clear—he wasn’t “too old”. He was senile—and unable to do the job, which includes sole authority over the nuclear arsenal. This is not a game.
Be a leader and ask him to resign. If necessary, calmly utilize the 25th amendment as intended. If she cannot do that, she has no business holding the office.
The key element of the ad was the second part: "Trump is for you".
Essentially, the ad was saying that the Democrats are focused on cultural issues such as Trans rights, while Trump is focused on issues that are of interest to "you", the voter, which are primarily economic issues.
The ad would not have been effective if it was only about how Trump would take away Trans people's rights. It was the contrast between the things that the Democrats are focused on, and the things that Trump claimed he was focusing on.
The ad was definitely a total lie because in reality, Trump is very much focused on hurting Trans people & has little interest in helping voters economic situation. But an ad that is a lie can still be effective propaganda.
And what happened to his constant promise to lower prices of eggs, gas etc on Day 1. It’s gone the opposite way yet his voters accept it. It was a false reason to vote for him!
Among the Trump voters I know, it was Woke culture (especially LGBTQ) and anti-abortion. Every time I saw the commercial where the woman was complaining "we are losing control of our own bodies." in that plaintive tone, I thought....this is why the Trump voters I know will say they MUST vote for Trump.
Yep. And their willingness to stomach the economy getting worse under Trump hammers that point home. The problem is we let hate fester under the surface for decades. Reagan gave racists new language to make their racism communicable without getting grief for it (welfare queens, etc.) and openly courted homophobia. The Republicans have spent nearly 5 decades taking down the New Deal by appealing to the worse angels of our nature and now they're powerful enough to be open with their hate.
It's never just one thing is it? The anti-trans ad—and other cultural issues were definitely a factor. But that doesn't preclude the fact that high prices were also a factor. The most impressive legislative victories of the Biden administration were all long-term bets—infrastructure, climate, manufacturing. Lowering the RATE of inflation is not the same as lowering prices. The immediate economic reality was high prices at the pump, in rents, mortgages, and in the supermarket.
One thing tht made that anti-trans ad so effective was that it effectively boxed the Harris campaign into a trap. They decided not to counter it in any way. Anything they said in response would only reinforce the attack line—she's for they/them.
That would be believable if they were angry about prices now, but they’re not. I don’t buy the “we need to give him time” excuse. We are coming close to 6 months and he has not only not lowered prices, he couldn’t even keep them steady.
I fully expect them to be screaming “we need to give him time” between gasps and gulps of salt water as they drown.
Have you seen Elliot Morris's analysis of polling data? Worth looking at. There's definitely some buyer's remorse setting in. If the election were held today, he concludes, Harris would win.
Republicans, by and large, are still with him. But among independents, polling on Trump and the economy is underwater. People are concerned about prices, inflation, recession, tariffs.
Exactly. People lie all the time when completing surveys. Who will openly admit, I voted for Trump because he's hilarious, or I hate women, or I'm profoundly racist, or I wish I could get away with grabbing them by the pussy? Almost no one. I'm with JVL on this one: the American public has a character issue, a profound character issue.
Bingo. And fear of “the other”. Race baiting lies that the media didn't want to touch. Did they think that Americans were smart enough to disseminate? Turns out we aren't.
Has anyone else noticed that the anti-trans hysteria is directed only at trans women? Men have very fragile sexual egos, is my assessment. They seem teetering on the edge of having their own sexuality questioned.
Christine Jorgensen was a transgender stripper. She came out in the 1950’s and had a long career as an entertainer. Men seemed to love her shows. Didn’t worry about her playing sports.
True that. The sports issue is just a fig leaf. And anecdotally; I know a handful of trans people and gay people who have never, ever hurt me. But I’ve lost count of the times I’ve been hurt by straight white males. I carry bear spray . . . But not for bears.
The simple yard signs, e.g., Kamala - high prices / Trump - low prices, we're also very impactful. Trump's campaign staff were geniuses at simple appeals to simple emotion. LaCivita may be a dishonorable divider and occasional liar, but he's a political genius.
This right here. 2024 was Republicans telling trans people they are not allowed to be a part of society. This is further cascading to women’s rights and bodily autonomy. The economy is a convenient, socially acceptable shield they can throw up so they can hide from saying the thing they know will turn people against them. Now that we see how little folks care about the economy, I call bullshit on this being the voters main driver in 2024. Sarah, I believe the focus group participants are lying to you, using this same “but the economy” to hide behind their true feelings. If it was all about the economy, why are so many people not rioting now that it is worse? Because it never was about the economy.
I don't necessarily disagree however every Trump voter I know and talk to although not happy with the prices right now are still in the "we need to give the plan time" mental state. The rioting will come later but for my circle of MAGA people, they are still in the honeymoon stage
I’m not sure it’s a honeymoon stage as much as a shock that they made the wrong choice and can’t admit it to themselves yet. “giving the plan time” is just a way to tell themselves “I didn’t really make a mistake…did I?”
In epidemiology, we call this sort of lying to your interviewer "social desirablility bias". (And they may be lying to themselves as much as the interviewer) and acknowledge that it skews data.
Is there not a word for this in political science?
Yep, that's what happened. Harris did not run a woke campaign. I'm not sure she ever once even brought up her gender or ethnicity unless asked. People came away from the campaign convinced Democrats are unhinged woke because the Republicans constantly lied about them, and people were so stupid or so lacking in critical thinking that they bought it.
The ACLU keeps sending me donation emails with the writer’s “pronouns” in the signature. They are hopelessly woke and so are the Democrats. I voted for Harris to avoid Trump, and for no other reason. I won’t vote for Vance or Don Jr either, but once again, not because the Democrats aren’t really woke. They are woke.
While members of the ACLU likely vote for Democrats if they vote, the ACLU is not the Democratic Party. I get it can be annoying to have people using their pronouns when it's obviously unnecessary, but for me at least, it's not a relevant detail when I vote. When you get donation solicitations from Harris or Biden, I'm thinking they're not signing off with their pronouns, and I doubt many other Democrats are, either.
The rightwing paints the Democrats as dangerously woke, if that's a thing, but it's not based in reality. It's propaganda. To the extent they even attempt to justify such claims, it's through cherrypicking and nutpicking, or through deceptive framing. The Democratic Party is not campus protesters; those kids didn't even vote for Harris. The last Democratic president was Joe Biden. The last Democratic presidential candidate was Kamala Harris. The last Democratic House Majority Leader was Nancy Pelosi. The current Democratic House Minority Leader is Hakeem Jeffries. The current Democratic Senate Minority Leader is Chuck Schumer. This is the leadership of the Democratic Party, not Chase Strangio.
Sorry, I voted for Biden thinking he was a moderate, and he went all woke on me with student loan forgiveness and a lot of far left policies. Kamala Harris was woke imho, and I voted for her to avoid Trump. Nancy Pelosi, I will give you, not woke. Jeffries I don’t know enough about. Nor Chuck Schumer. But woke sticks like glue to the Democrats whether you think it’s deserved or not. It’s CRT, DEI, pronouns, micro aggressions, and all the rest of that stuff. It’s NPR even though I listen to my local NPR station every day, and I signed that letter that Protect Public Media sent me. The Democrats are a big tent party that includes all the woke folk, and until they effectively disassociate themselves from that mindset, they will have a hard time getting votes from center right folk like myself who can’t bring themselves to vote D just to stop the GOP. My BIL for example, voted 3rd party because he hates Trump but refuses to vote for a Democrat, despite being socially liberal and a vegetarian environmentalist. The Democrats aren’t fiscally conservative enough for him. Come to think of it, BIL is okay with our niece who is nonbinary they/them and polyamorous, so he’s not a perfect example. He’s a classic Rockefeller Republican. Loose socially but tight fisted with money. Eliminate all social welfare.
In any event woke makes Democrats lose votes, which is why the “Harris is for they/them, Trump is for you” campaign worked so well. It has to go.
I agree that the woke label sticks to Democrats, but yeah it's not deserved, and it's because the other side has constructed an effective and efficient lie machine. I can't see how Biden went woke with the loan forgiveness; it may be a policy you disagree with, and it may be too far left for you, but it's not woke. Had the policy been loan forgiveness unless you're a white male, that would be another matter.
I'm not sure what other far left policies he may have attempted, but he did enact some left-leaning policies, as one would expect. I heard something about a trans-athlete executive order, maybe, but I'm not sure about that one.
I agree with you Don. I live in Wisconsin. Trump ads cycled through a small collection of predominantly anti-trans ads. These ads were targeted at Democrats and Independents airing during Morning Joe and in the evening during Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune. Harris and her supporters had no comeback for these ads.
Do you think ads matter anymore? The voters that handed Trump the win skewed younger and in groups that maybe don’t watch traditional TV with political “ads”?
Traditional TV seems aimed at reliable older voters like myself (65+). I've heard that it was everywhere. We 'cut the cord' after the election - in part to save money - and have now largely abandoned television.
"Trump won in 2024 because voters were upset about the persistent inflation resulting from COVID and were nostalgic for Trump’s pre-COVID economy and suckered by his “businessman” mythology. Trump was further helped by Biden being too compromised by age to be an effective communicator for his own policies."
This conclusion makes us feel better about the American voter, but I just can't get to this conclusion, because I saw the campaigns.
Trump ran one ad everywhere all the time because his team, based on their internal data, determined it was their most effective ad. Was this an ad about Joe Biden's "terrible" economy and how Trump would fix it on day one? Was it about inflation? No. It was about trans people. It was about how Kamala is for they them, and Trump is for you. I missed the economic message in their most impactful ad.
This is why, when people say they voted for Trump because of the economy, my reaction is, No, why did you really vote for Trump?
Don’t conflate the fact that a few points-worth of otherwise Democratic-leaning voters defected over the trans ad to that being the primary reason people voted.
There were plenty of other things going on. If the job of VP—as John McCain once said is to check on the President’s health daily and go to foreign dictators’ funerals, Harris was utterly negligent in the first part—that the rest of the staff and mainstream media were complicit is not an excuse: it was her job first and foremost to recognize Biden was not up to it if he wouldn’t recognize it himself.
And if she determined Biden was too old what was she supposed to do? Launch a coup? Scream about enacting the 25th amendment? What VP is his/her right mind would do that? She'd be vilified by the president's advisers, labeled disloyal and cut loose, all to Trump's benefit. This is Biden's cross to bear, not Harris's.
And to be clear—he wasn’t “too old”. He was senile—and unable to do the job, which includes sole authority over the nuclear arsenal. This is not a game.
Be a leader and ask him to resign. If necessary, calmly utilize the 25th amendment as intended. If she cannot do that, she has no business holding the office.
The economic message was a subtext of the ad.
The key element of the ad was the second part: "Trump is for you".
Essentially, the ad was saying that the Democrats are focused on cultural issues such as Trans rights, while Trump is focused on issues that are of interest to "you", the voter, which are primarily economic issues.
The ad would not have been effective if it was only about how Trump would take away Trans people's rights. It was the contrast between the things that the Democrats are focused on, and the things that Trump claimed he was focusing on.
The ad was definitely a total lie because in reality, Trump is very much focused on hurting Trans people & has little interest in helping voters economic situation. But an ad that is a lie can still be effective propaganda.
And what happened to his constant promise to lower prices of eggs, gas etc on Day 1. It’s gone the opposite way yet his voters accept it. It was a false reason to vote for him!
Among the Trump voters I know, it was Woke culture (especially LGBTQ) and anti-abortion. Every time I saw the commercial where the woman was complaining "we are losing control of our own bodies." in that plaintive tone, I thought....this is why the Trump voters I know will say they MUST vote for Trump.
Yep. And their willingness to stomach the economy getting worse under Trump hammers that point home. The problem is we let hate fester under the surface for decades. Reagan gave racists new language to make their racism communicable without getting grief for it (welfare queens, etc.) and openly courted homophobia. The Republicans have spent nearly 5 decades taking down the New Deal by appealing to the worse angels of our nature and now they're powerful enough to be open with their hate.
It's never just one thing is it? The anti-trans ad—and other cultural issues were definitely a factor. But that doesn't preclude the fact that high prices were also a factor. The most impressive legislative victories of the Biden administration were all long-term bets—infrastructure, climate, manufacturing. Lowering the RATE of inflation is not the same as lowering prices. The immediate economic reality was high prices at the pump, in rents, mortgages, and in the supermarket.
One thing tht made that anti-trans ad so effective was that it effectively boxed the Harris campaign into a trap. They decided not to counter it in any way. Anything they said in response would only reinforce the attack line—she's for they/them.
That would be believable if they were angry about prices now, but they’re not. I don’t buy the “we need to give him time” excuse. We are coming close to 6 months and he has not only not lowered prices, he couldn’t even keep them steady.
I fully expect them to be screaming “we need to give him time” between gasps and gulps of salt water as they drown.
Have you seen Elliot Morris's analysis of polling data? Worth looking at. There's definitely some buyer's remorse setting in. If the election were held today, he concludes, Harris would win.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/do-trumps-voters-regret-voting-for
Republicans, by and large, are still with him. But among independents, polling on Trump and the economy is underwater. People are concerned about prices, inflation, recession, tariffs.
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52123-approval-donald-trump-recession-fears-financial-anxiety-economy-grading-universities-may-2-5-2025-economist-yougov-poll
Reminds me of the Willie Horton ad about marginal tax rates.
Lol excellent! 🤣
Exactly. People lie all the time when completing surveys. Who will openly admit, I voted for Trump because he's hilarious, or I hate women, or I'm profoundly racist, or I wish I could get away with grabbing them by the pussy? Almost no one. I'm with JVL on this one: the American public has a character issue, a profound character issue.
And Republicans since at least the time of Reagan have been encouraging that terrible character issue in us.
Bingo. And fear of “the other”. Race baiting lies that the media didn't want to touch. Did they think that Americans were smart enough to disseminate? Turns out we aren't.
Has anyone else noticed that the anti-trans hysteria is directed only at trans women? Men have very fragile sexual egos, is my assessment. They seem teetering on the edge of having their own sexuality questioned.
Infuriating as it is, it’s not complicated. The bigots see them as weird, sad women cosplaying men and not a “threat” to anyone.
Christine Jorgensen was a transgender stripper. She came out in the 1950’s and had a long career as an entertainer. Men seemed to love her shows. Didn’t worry about her playing sports.
Certainly not a threat to their own male sexuality the way trans women are. Too much sympathy there, and voila! “You must be gay!”
Yep, it's always transwomen. It's like the misogyny is so ingrained that they view transmen as aspirational.
True that. The sports issue is just a fig leaf. And anecdotally; I know a handful of trans people and gay people who have never, ever hurt me. But I’ve lost count of the times I’ve been hurt by straight white males. I carry bear spray . . . But not for bears.
The simple yard signs, e.g., Kamala - high prices / Trump - low prices, we're also very impactful. Trump's campaign staff were geniuses at simple appeals to simple emotion. LaCivita may be a dishonorable divider and occasional liar, but he's a political genius.
Trump sure exploded his "low prices" promise in a few short months.
Amen Don!
People voted for Trump because whether they are aware or not, he hates all the same people/things that they do.
This right here. 2024 was Republicans telling trans people they are not allowed to be a part of society. This is further cascading to women’s rights and bodily autonomy. The economy is a convenient, socially acceptable shield they can throw up so they can hide from saying the thing they know will turn people against them. Now that we see how little folks care about the economy, I call bullshit on this being the voters main driver in 2024. Sarah, I believe the focus group participants are lying to you, using this same “but the economy” to hide behind their true feelings. If it was all about the economy, why are so many people not rioting now that it is worse? Because it never was about the economy.
I don't necessarily disagree however every Trump voter I know and talk to although not happy with the prices right now are still in the "we need to give the plan time" mental state. The rioting will come later but for my circle of MAGA people, they are still in the honeymoon stage
What plan is it of which they speak?
I see no plan! 🤔
They always extended a presumption of good faith to Trump, extracting it from what they should extend to Trump’s opponents. It’s baffling.
I’m not sure it’s a honeymoon stage as much as a shock that they made the wrong choice and can’t admit it to themselves yet. “giving the plan time” is just a way to tell themselves “I didn’t really make a mistake…did I?”
In epidemiology, we call this sort of lying to your interviewer "social desirablility bias". (And they may be lying to themselves as much as the interviewer) and acknowledge that it skews data.
Is there not a word for this in political science?
What about social acceptability bias?
Stupidity!
Cletusitus
They can lie to her because they lie to themselves so easily.
Nutshell: they vote for cheap pols who hate whom voters hate.
Key GOP platform plank: We will expand hate nationwide, to red, to blue, to you. Hate. It's a winner.
The next time someone says that Dems focused on "woke", they need to watch the Republicans campaign ads. Every single one was about "woke".
Yep, that's what happened. Harris did not run a woke campaign. I'm not sure she ever once even brought up her gender or ethnicity unless asked. People came away from the campaign convinced Democrats are unhinged woke because the Republicans constantly lied about them, and people were so stupid or so lacking in critical thinking that they bought it.
The ACLU keeps sending me donation emails with the writer’s “pronouns” in the signature. They are hopelessly woke and so are the Democrats. I voted for Harris to avoid Trump, and for no other reason. I won’t vote for Vance or Don Jr either, but once again, not because the Democrats aren’t really woke. They are woke.
While members of the ACLU likely vote for Democrats if they vote, the ACLU is not the Democratic Party. I get it can be annoying to have people using their pronouns when it's obviously unnecessary, but for me at least, it's not a relevant detail when I vote. When you get donation solicitations from Harris or Biden, I'm thinking they're not signing off with their pronouns, and I doubt many other Democrats are, either.
The rightwing paints the Democrats as dangerously woke, if that's a thing, but it's not based in reality. It's propaganda. To the extent they even attempt to justify such claims, it's through cherrypicking and nutpicking, or through deceptive framing. The Democratic Party is not campus protesters; those kids didn't even vote for Harris. The last Democratic president was Joe Biden. The last Democratic presidential candidate was Kamala Harris. The last Democratic House Majority Leader was Nancy Pelosi. The current Democratic House Minority Leader is Hakeem Jeffries. The current Democratic Senate Minority Leader is Chuck Schumer. This is the leadership of the Democratic Party, not Chase Strangio.
Sorry, I voted for Biden thinking he was a moderate, and he went all woke on me with student loan forgiveness and a lot of far left policies. Kamala Harris was woke imho, and I voted for her to avoid Trump. Nancy Pelosi, I will give you, not woke. Jeffries I don’t know enough about. Nor Chuck Schumer. But woke sticks like glue to the Democrats whether you think it’s deserved or not. It’s CRT, DEI, pronouns, micro aggressions, and all the rest of that stuff. It’s NPR even though I listen to my local NPR station every day, and I signed that letter that Protect Public Media sent me. The Democrats are a big tent party that includes all the woke folk, and until they effectively disassociate themselves from that mindset, they will have a hard time getting votes from center right folk like myself who can’t bring themselves to vote D just to stop the GOP. My BIL for example, voted 3rd party because he hates Trump but refuses to vote for a Democrat, despite being socially liberal and a vegetarian environmentalist. The Democrats aren’t fiscally conservative enough for him. Come to think of it, BIL is okay with our niece who is nonbinary they/them and polyamorous, so he’s not a perfect example. He’s a classic Rockefeller Republican. Loose socially but tight fisted with money. Eliminate all social welfare.
In any event woke makes Democrats lose votes, which is why the “Harris is for they/them, Trump is for you” campaign worked so well. It has to go.
I agree that the woke label sticks to Democrats, but yeah it's not deserved, and it's because the other side has constructed an effective and efficient lie machine. I can't see how Biden went woke with the loan forgiveness; it may be a policy you disagree with, and it may be too far left for you, but it's not woke. Had the policy been loan forgiveness unless you're a white male, that would be another matter.
I'm not sure what other far left policies he may have attempted, but he did enact some left-leaning policies, as one would expect. I heard something about a trans-athlete executive order, maybe, but I'm not sure about that one.
I agree with you Don. I live in Wisconsin. Trump ads cycled through a small collection of predominantly anti-trans ads. These ads were targeted at Democrats and Independents airing during Morning Joe and in the evening during Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune. Harris and her supporters had no comeback for these ads.
Do you think ads matter anymore? The voters that handed Trump the win skewed younger and in groups that maybe don’t watch traditional TV with political “ads”?
You’ve never seen ads anywhere else but cable tv…?
Traditional TV seems aimed at reliable older voters like myself (65+). I've heard that it was everywhere. We 'cut the cord' after the election - in part to save money - and have now largely abandoned television.
They had them everywhere, including streaming services like Tubi. So it's not just "traditional TV."
Socials and podcasts - that’s where ads matter. Not to mention so-called first person accounts (i.e. rumors posted online).
They voted for him in 2016 in spite of the birther nonsense, and they have not changed.
That’s exactly it. Why do we think we’ll reason with the unreasonable?
Features not bugs
Well, some are bugmen too.