Election Eve Weekend Nerd Spectacular

However, buddy, and welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I’m Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bullwork. And this is our last episode before election day. And so we’ve got a very special episode for you today. It is a twist on the focus group.

Instead of talking to a group of orders, I’m gonna have four conversations with some of the nerdiest political nerds I could find to talk to me about the most important dynamics of Tuesday’s election. We are gonna start by checking in on what is happening in the crucial swing state of Nevada by welcoming back to the pod John Ralston the dean of the Nevada press corps. John, thank you for being here again.

Sarah,

it’s a pleasure to be here, and I wanted to say really quickly, some people like my stepdaughter doesn’t like being called a nerd. I love it.

Oh, I that’s the highest compliment I can pay. I know. And I gotta tell you from one political nerd to another, I am following you like a psychopath. I’m reading every word of your blog. Where you are breaking down the mail returns.

And I appreciate that you try to tell us, we still don’t know anything. But every kernel, every crumb. For people like us, I think, I don’t know, we can’t help ourselves. So I’m just gonna set this up really quickly, then I wanna get into what you’re seeing in the early voke count there. So the governor and senate race in Nevada, they’re just both nail biters.

And as we discussed last time, all of the ills of the last couple of years, inflation, COVID, crime, they hit Nevada especially hard. And that is also the ground zero for the Hispanic voter shift toward the GOP. And then you’ve also got this like insane Secretary of State candidate that I know you strong feelings about, but you have been tracking these early votes. Can you just explain, like, how this works your state, like, what is it that you’re getting? I I understand, like, there’s mail coming in, but, like, how are you getting this data?

Well, it’s

a really good question, and it it goes to the heart of why, you know, a lot of analysts this time of year say, don’t pay attention to the early vote. It doesn’t mean that much. It’s not that predictive. But it is in Nevada. And since I’ve been tracking this like the political nerd that I am for a decade and a half, Sarah, there are daily reports of who has voted.

And when I say who has voted, I mean, the party in their names. I’m not really interested in the names, but I am interested in the party. Because it’s pretty predictive in Nevada of what the actual vote will look like. And if you consider that in a normal year, two thirds of the vote is cast before election day. You can model certain things off of that and you can make predictions off of that.

I wish I were the case this year, by the way, Sarah. This is the hardest year since I’ve started doing this to predict at least not yet what’s going to happen. And is it because you just can’t tell which way the Indies are gonna

go? Like, what is it that’s making it so hard to predict? Particularly this year?

I’m never completely sure which way NDs are gonna go or who the NDs are in this cycle compared to other cycles. But that’s only part of the problem. As you know, Nevada just instituted universal mail ballots to everybody in twenty twenty because of the pandemic, and then the Democratic controlled legislature voted to keep it that way. And so the only parallel that we have in terms of voting patterns with a lot of mail is twenty twenty. And there is there is not a lot of mail this time, though.

I expect that there to be less, right, it’s not a presidential. Year, but it’s coming in very radically and very slowly. And and most of the people I talked to and I and I came to this conclusion myself, sir, is I thought to turn out would be some pretty high fraction of twenty twenty where it was about eighty percent. I thought it might be as high as seventy percent or at least in the mid sixties. And now it looks like we may not even get to sixty percent because there seems to be less male and people seem to be unclear about why that is, is it a post office issue?

Is there a backlog? People aren’t sure, although I think it’s the former, not the latter. You think it’s a post office issue? I do because, you know, I have good relationships with the people who are counting these in the county here in Clark County where seventy percent of the vote is, and they say they’re processing everything they get every day. And the numbers are just astronomically lower than they were in twenty twenty.

I mean, not just from a presidential year to a midterm year, but just a huge drop off. And by the way, that is a problem for the democrats who are dominating the mail every time it comes in by almost a two:one margin while the Republicans are winning the early vote, the in person vote by a somewhat less margin, but the turnout there is more robust. Is it possible maybe just

people aren’t using as much mail because the pandemic’s not a thing as much and they’re gonna go vote on election day or they’re voting in person. I wish

I could give you a definitive answer to it. And as you know, around this time of year, not only do we, as political nerds, want to have definitive answers, but the people who read us or listen to us. Say, come on. Just tell me who’s going to win. And and I I just I I don’t know the answer to that question.

And there’s a lot of speculation about election day turnout. Let me just tell you the figure from twenty twenty, the first year that we had mail ballot in here. Eleven percent only turned out on election day of the total electorate that voted in twenty twenty. And Republicans did very well on election day as they generally do. There is some thought, and I think by Democrats hope that Democrats, because there isn’t a pandemic, as you said, are going to go back to voting in person and a lot of people do like to vote on election day.

I have to tell you, Mike, that tells me that’s not what’s going to happen, Sarah, but I wouldn’t say definitively it’s not. Well, why does your gut think that? Because it seems to me that all the winds are are blowing against the democrats. Here. And the machine that the Democrats have erected here, which is the best in the country, probably has been doing everything it can with the help of the culinary union, which I’ll remind your listeners is the biggest union in the state, has sixty thousand members half of them are more Hispanic, has been working really, really hard to get the vote out.

And I just don’t think any of that is geared toward a big election day turn out. And I think more Republicans wanna vote on election day than Democrats. Now again, I had said this many times too, and I hate to sound like of the man with caveats, but this is an apple year and all the rest have been oranges that I’ve covered.

Just to go back to your thing about the post office though, is what you’re saying there, they’re just being so slow with the mail. Because I saw this on your blog. Suddenly, the mailman came and there was this big influx of mail Is it possible that that could continue to happen and they just come in, like, more janky than they usually do? I

think janky is the most accurate scientific words describe it, Sarah, because it has been very erratic this time compared to the predictability of twenty twenty with the mail bailing. And I can tell you, I don’t know if a person on either side and smart strategists on either side who wasn’t surprised at either the erratic mail returns or the volume being so far down. Most people thought there would be about one point one million voters turning out in Nevada out of the one point eight million registered, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s down to a million or maybe even a little less, and that’s in the sixty percent range. But here’s the thing. We we have to remember this.

And this is what the Democrats are hoping for, is that The mail can continue to come in until four days after the election as long as it’s postmarked by November eighth. Now that’s good for the democrats. It may be bad in the sense that if these races are very close, as you and I have been talking about in the Republicans, are slightly ahead on election night and then mail starts to come in, you can imagine what that’s going to look like. So when you’re talking to Democrats there, are they losing their minds? What’s the vibe?

If you just went by Twitter, which no one should ever do. Yes. They’re losing their minds. But so the more experienced ones are more like John, don’t write our obit yet. We’re in the game.

And I think that’s the best description. They only have about a point and a half lead statewide in the ballots return, which is low for the so called read machine here. But that organization still exists, and it’s tilted very much toward mail return. So That is why I think they’re puzzled and hopeful that the male will stop its janky pattern and pick up a more regular pattern starting very soon. And can you just explain to the listeners?

Because

I’ve been finding it pretty interesting. You talk about it in terms of, like, Democrats need to build a wall to kinda come up against, like, the rural votes and then the in person. Can you explain both the geography and how you’re thinking about that firewall? What does that mean?

John, can you please nerd out for a few minutes? Well, you insist, Sarah. So Nevada, as I’ve talked before, is essentially three states. With Clark County, Las Vegas, having seventy percent of the vote, Washoe County, Orino, the other urban area, having about fifty eighteen percent of the vote, and then the rest is in the fifteen rural counties, which are all deep red. What the Democratic machine has been able to do successfully in every cycle, at least since two thousand and eight, with only one exception, that was twenty fourteen, is build what I call a firewall in Clark County of banks democratic votes, and they have such a big lead of predictable democratic voters by election day that you can’t make up for it in either election day or the votes cast in the rest of the state because There are so many more votes in Clark County than anywhere else.

The issue this time is that there is not huge turnout in Clark County. Their for the Democratic lead is not that great. The firewall, which was forty seven thousand by the end of early voting in the last midterm is only about twenty three, twenty four thousand right now. So that that is not a good sign for them.

Okay. Well, one of the things I really wanted to follow-up with you on is the Secretary of State Race. Because I gotta tell you, so in the sea of I think terrible candidates on the Republican side who are election deniers. You know, Kerry Lake is looking very formidable in Arizona. Hersha Walker looks like he’s gonna be able to take that thing to a runoff.

But but one sort of bright spot, I think, is that at least in the polling, some of these really horrible secretary of state candidates, Jim Marchant, being one of them, but Mark Fincham, another one in Arizona, they’re pulling behind the governor’s candidates. Like, which is odd. Right? It’s like odd that people would even know anything about the the Secretary of State Race. How is the Secretary of State Race looking to you?

I’ll

answer that question in a second, but since you did the lead in that you did, I want to make it clear to everyone listening that it is not partisan at all to suggest that some of these terrible candidates, and they’re almost all on the Republican side who are election directors or conspiracy theorists or just plain cookie It’s dangerous to elect them to public office. I think if you’re a Republican or democrat or independent, you should be really worried about that, especially considering what what happened after twenty twenty. I’m sorry to get up on my soapbox for a second there. Now, Preach, brother. So the the bottom line is is with Marsha Marshaan is all of those things.

He’s an election denier. He’s a conspiracy theorist. He’s a cooke. I’ve said in many places, and he’s maybe the most dangerous person ever on the Nevada ballot. Listen, I have not seen a poll where he is losing, which is very disturbing to me.

Now there are a third of the voters undecided They, finally, in the last few weeks, run some really good negative ads, exposing him for who he is. But the real danger for people who are worried about election deniers here in the state, and we have more than just Marshawn, is if there ends up being some kind of a red wave in Nevada. Sarah, you and I listened to focus groups where nobody here knew what the secretaries they did or who the candidates were. So if it’s just partisan voting patterns taking over, Jim Archon can get elected. I think that’s very worrisome.

Very worrisome. And I guess from all the early mail, you can’t tell anything about Hispanic. Or can you from the geography? Is there any any way to tell?

You really can’t tell that much. And there is a phenomenon in Nevada which may or may not exist elsewhere, where Hispanics tend to decide late, at least a significant percentage of Hispanics pend to decide late. Now in the senate race, Katherine Cortez Masstow, who has not worn her heritage on her sleeve, has change her what what she wears on her sleeves during the election cycle, which may or may not be a coincidence, and they are making direct appeals. The Republicans also low I’ve spent more money than I’ve ever seen trying to get Hispanics to move away from the Democratic Party. I’ve seen a lot of polling on this.

Sarah, some of it shows Catherine Cortez Masstel underperforming with Hispanics. And by underperforming with Hispanics, I mean, significantly under sixty percent, which is I think what she needs to get, but there’s other more recent polling that indicates she may be hitting her marks there. But as far as the turnout, I just don’t

know. Well,

and this is where I thought that maybe Cisco Aguilar who was running against Jim Marshot for secretary of state. And maybe people don’t think this way I was like, well, you know, he’s Hispanic. Will that help? Would that give him a little bit of an edge with Hispanic voters? Just like sheer looking at a name and saying, Oh, that person’s Hispanic.

Or do you not see that happening? Well, listen,

even though it’s it’s said, you know, when when white people talk about how Hispanics vote, it’s so patronizing to say, that Hispanics vote for Hispanics, but it’s true of every demographic group. There is a certain percentage who will use identity politics, and that’s how they will vote. The problem, of course, with Cisco, is who was a perfectly reasonable candidate, is he has been virtually invisible to most voters. And so if they see a Hispanic surname when they go and fill out their ballot, are they more likely to vote for him? Certain percentage will be?

Will it be enough? I don’t know the answer

to that.

Okay. Talk to me about the governor’s race. You’ve got Steve Sisylak, the Democratic incumbent, Joe Lombardo, the Republican who I think as we discussed last time, he’s a bit of a denier, but he’s mostly a secret normie. Like, he’s playing Mago, but he’s like, definitely one of the better Republicans out there, just a low bar, but you talked a lot the last time about Syslak. There being some frustration with how he’d handled things like getting people there, COVID money, and things like that.

How do you think that’s shaping

up? Well, I

think that the conventional wisdom on both sides and and there’s good reason for it, Sarah, is that Cislac is running behind Katherine Cortez Masstel. And that Lombardo seems like a more reasonable choice to independent voters and maybe some crossover Democrats because they’re so mad at Syslak than Laxalt does to Katherine Cortez. So if you remember from those focus groups, every single one of those potential swing voters said they would vote against Waxhaw mostly because of his pro life position while there were about a third of them maybe who said they would consider voting for Lombardo because of what I referred to as the COVID hangover. And so I think Democrats are more worried about sisela. Than they are about Katherine Cortez Mass, so they’re worried about both.

But but I think the worry is much more acute about Syslak because he’s the governor, because he can be blamed for every ill in the state, and they’ve linked him to Biden too, fairly or not. And so I think he’s probably in more trouble than Katherine Cortez Masstel, although I I wouldn’t be surprised by any matrix in those two races, Sarah, whether they both the democrats lost, both the democrats won or one and one. Evan,

can I ask, and this is my last question before we invite our next guest in to talk Arizona. But I would say people went from kind of being, like, Cortez Masto, she’s done. Like, that’s the seat that gets flipped. To now, like, weirdly, people like, slightly more bullish on her and they’re much more worried about, I don’t know, Georgia, Pennsylvania, some of those other states. Does anything changed there?

Depends what people you’re referring to. I I hear people on both sides. I guess

I would say conventional wisdom — Yeah. — when it goes. I’ve heard a lot more people say they think she’s gonna hold on. Than we’re saying it four months ago.

I think that’s certainly true, and I think it’s because and again, you hear this from Republicans who know what’s going on as well. She has run a really, really good campaign. Her media has been sharp. She has been ubiquitous, including in the Hispanic community over the last couple of weeks or months. And so that that if she can hang on, it’s because of her work ethic.

And I talked about her being a workhorse, not not a show horse. And because her media has been so, so good.

John

Ralston, Nevada, it is such an important state. I wish you guys were not on the West Coast. You’re gonna be behind where it’s gonna take forever to know what’s going on. Actually, I’m sorry, do you guys get to open the mail early? Like, Pennsylvania, they don’t do it, and it could take forever.

What’s your counting

gonna be like? Like, when do you think you’ll have results? They will open all the mail and the and the early vote, hopefully relatively early on election night for those of us who live on the best coast as opposed to where others might live, Sarah. Sure. I would guess that we’ll have most of the early vote in and posted by about midnight, maybe earlier.

And I have I have to say you will know a lot then. And and people wanna know what to look for, look at those margins in Clark County. And if Katherine Cortez Massto does not have close to a double digit lead in Clark County, she’s in big trouble. Okay. I

just wrote that

down, double digit lead in Clark County. John Relson, for real this time. Thank you so much for coming on. Again, great to talk to you. Good luck with the next few days and other gonna be madness.

Thanks. I always enjoy it, Sarah. See you, man. That was an awesome conversation with John Ralston. And I want you guys to all go check out his blog where he is tracking all of this stuff.

It is the Nevada independent dot com. Go check it out and follow his mail returns. Okay. Next up, we are going to Arizona. Now just like in Nevada, all the races there are tight and, like, Governor and Secretary of State races are the races that keep me up at night.

And Arizona also has some weird stuff going on like Arm vigilantes watching ballot drop boxes. So I went and found the smartest Most knowledgeable person I could on Arizona. Bram Resnick, the host of Sunday Square off on KPNX in Phoenix, Bram, my man, thank you for being here. Glad to

be here. Thanks for having me. I had

been pronouncing your name, Bram, and my team told me that I have been saying it wrong. That’s

not unusual. You’ll often hear politicians call me Braun because they think it bugs me. But I get it. It’s something you live with with the name Bram. So

speaking of politicians that you get into things with, so you and I met when I was out in Arizona, And then I saw you go viral. You were kind of mixing it up with Kerry Lake, the scariest governor candidate in the country. When you were given her, you know, a tough time about not answering questions. Just as a setup, you’re the political guy out there. You you are the the face of sort of the political Sunday show just tell our listeners, like, what it’s been like to cover these races this cycle?

We’ve

never faced a challenge like this. So I wanna say there are a lot of really talented political reporters in this town, and I’m really lucky to work with them because some extent we’ve been support group for each other. In fact, late last night, one of them was walking up my street as I was walking my dogs. We ended up talking for an hour. So it’s a really good group of people.

It’s a it’s a small place in a lot of ways, so you get to know people pretty well. And see them often. What’s it been like? Well, I’ll I’ll put it to you this way during the primary election when I was on air reporting out the results of the Republican primary back in August. I said Karen Taylor Robson.

She was the challenger to Kerry Lake. She wins, you get four more years of Doug Doosey. If Carrie Lake wins, you get four years of Donald Trump. And so far, that’s proved correct. She is like Donald Trump in virtually every aspect.

She is a COVID denier. She is an election denier, but at the same time she has the gifts of a longtime TV anchor

as a

presenter, as a politician. She is, I think, one of the most charismatic politicians on the stage today. She is also a pugelist. You’ve heard her attack the media, her favorite porter. Her favorite reporter is somebody who worked for the Gateway pundit.

I probably shouldn’t even call him a reporter, but that’s Carrie Lake’s idea of news. She says it and you repeat it. And so that’s been a challenge for us as journalists. And and we’ve never seen anything like it, not just as journalists, but as news organizations. How do you cover this?

And how do you cover it?

Well, it’s it’s challenging. You know, you kinda have to pick your spot. You won’t do a one on one interview with me. She early on, she created a viral video of me asking her question. She claimed I didn’t swear to the pledge of allegiance at an event.

Turned that into a viral video. And then several months later, I bought two ads on my TV show, showing that viral video.

I’ve never seen that

before,

if you. These are

politicians and professional trolls.

Yeah. But I think what we face in here in Arizona with the Trumpiest ticket in the country, I believe, the statewide ticket, has election deniers up and down.

And what

we have here, what we’re dealing with here is the same thing the National Media has dealt with with Donald Trump is somebody who will just say things that aren’t true. You’ve got to fact check them. What do you put on air? And especially when, you know, as journalists, you know, I said this when she put those ads on my show, you know, we don’t want to be the story. But she is making us the story.

And so the question is, how do you push back without it appearing to be your feelings are

being heard?

Yeah. Right. We’re all professionals.

This is what you deal with and have dealt with for years, but not to this extent. Since she

was in the

media for so long, she was in the newscaster herself you know her from that world?

Only really

the way voters might, which is from watching her on TV, she was a news reader. For twenty five years. I don’t know of any journalist who thinks of her as a journalist. Since then,

I’ve

you know, I knew of her, knew her reputation. And that kind of thing, but never really had any kind of relationship with her. We also knew that in the preceding two years, or so, made them three years. She had gone far to the right. When you say her

reputation, what do you mean? This is based on

what I am told by people who had served her in a bar people who have dealt with her. She was the queen bee, and she was somebody who could be a tough person to deal

with.

I’ll add that that skid on Saturday Night Live came pretty close to the mark sending back two thousand salads. She thought she was she was in charge.

Okay. Well, let’s talk about these sort of individual races. And so Carrie Lake, is running against Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State, and I have a couple questions related to Katie Hobbs. One is she sort of gambled on this idea that she wasn’t gonna debate. When I did the last focus group and I talked about this when I went on your show, there was a couple people And at least one guy, he was gonna vote for for Kelly, for Senate.

But he was gonna vote for Kelly Lake because he was mad, Katie Hobbs wouldn’t debate.

Do

you think it was the right call for her not to debate? How do you think that’s factoring in with voters? In retrospect, it

was a terrible call. This

became

rather than having, say, one bad debate night with Carrie Lake two months ago, this became a story that doesn’t end even I think CNN was talking about it the other night. This story had legs her campaign certainly didn’t anticipate, and frankly, those of us in the media didn’t anticipate. But

it

just

wouldn’t end because Carrie Lake helped it not end, and then Katie Hobbs then got an interview she wasn’t supposed to

get based

on the agreement between the debate organizer and the debate broadcaster. So that was a whole other story. It’s probably something she could have shook off, but it just came to fairly or unfairly define the campaign as someone who won’t deal with the public all that

much. Why

do you assume it would have been a bad night for Katy House? Like, she has tons of material to work with for offense. Like, you don’t have to be a genius. To be like, you won’t say you’re gonna certify an election. Like, you have been lying to the voters.

You would not engage in good governance. Like, I don’t know. It just doesn’t seem that hard. I’d understand Carrie Lake is beautiful and charismatic, blah blah blah. Like, make her look like the nut that she is.

Glad

you brought that up. I’m not saying it would have been a bad night, but let’s assume worst case scenario. It’s a bad night.

Yeah.

Right? You move on and find ways to deal with it. And from my reporting and the email exchanges I’ve seen between the POPs campaign and the debate organizer, it was clear she never was going to debate. They talked about trying to reach an agreement, then she wanted forums, a one on one form. There is a way to debate a person like

Carrie Lake. Mark

Kelley debated Blake Masters. He was a pretty aggressive debater and candidate himself. And it was a very structured debate. Right? Sixty seconds for Kelly, Blake Masters forty five to a butt, Kelly forty five to respond to Masters.

What do people remember from that? Not much. And that’s a debate Katie Hobbs could have

had. Yeah. You know,

Kirsten Cinemas is kind of a model for this in twenty eighteen. She didn’t even acknowledge your opponent. You just looked straight at the camera and

you

say what you want to say. You don’t engage. There is a way to do it But again, Katie Hobbs never wanted to do it. You know, we know this. Katie Hobbs has been a politics here for about ten years.

Or so. She is not a great retail politician. One on one, you know, she’s easy to talk to. But in terms of, you know, explaining positions, She’s not somebody who’s talented at that. Yeah.

The other

thing, there’s like a dust up in the state right now. They’re trying to make Katie House because she is the current secretary of state. They want her to what? Not — Yeah. — not oversee the election, which is interesting because that’s the whole thing that happened with Kemp and Stacey Abrams, the first time is he was secretary of state and she accused him of taking people off voter rolls and whatnot.

What do you think about this deal?

Look, Katie Hobbs or whoever is in that position swore an oath to do the job. I would assume that Katie Hobbs will uphold that oath. This is her job. We had a similar situation, I believe, back in twenty fourteen. When the defense secretary of state ran in the Republican primary for governor.

I don’t remember anybody asking him to excuse himself or accuse himself. Could

be wrong,

I don’t remember that. Carrie Lake has brought this up from time to time. It’s a position Katie Hobbs is in. I think the irony is is that if Carrie Lake were in the same position, having to certify an election that she lost, what do you think she would do? And what do you think Katie Hobbs would do having to certify an election that she lost?

It’s

a great point because I I mean, I can answer those

questions. Yeah.

Carrie Lake would not certify it. Katie Hobbs will. And, like, you just know that.

So moving

to the senate race. You’re right. I watched that debate between Kelly and and Masters. And I thought Masters was, like, weirdly robotic. He was, like, a debate bot.

But he was, you know, crisp and clear and and whatnot. And Mark Kelley is fine. But I’ve been a little surprised, you know, Mark Kelley has led in every poll basically ever. It’s one of those races that Republicans pulled out of at one point because they didn’t see it as one of all. But he looks like he closing strong in the way

that all the

Republicans seem to be closing strong is do you feel like that’s what’s happening there or do you think Kelly that there’s still a lot of people that are there to support him.

I do not

make any predictions. Just like vibes.

Is vibes vibes louder?

Yeah. The

vibe. I

don’t think we we’ll we’ll ever know what quite is going on here. What I see is, a, I see, typical voter behavior, they start to make decisions — Yeah. — and make choices and maybe they had a feeling about somebody a vibe. About a candidate. But now as it gets closer to decision time, they’re making decisions.

And I need to remind you, early ballots have been in voters’ hands here for three weeks. So they are literally making decisions. I think a million ballots have been filed so far out of a projected three million or so. One thing I’d like to point out for folks who aren’t that familiar with the environment here is in this midterm election,

people know

I think that Republicans have a registration advantage over Democrats here. But in a midterm election, you might see Republicans having an eight point turnout advantage against Democrats. That’s just the way midterms are. This one might be different. It looks like we’re gonna have a record turnout.

It’s a possibility, but in general, they have a turnout advantage. And so You know, if you’re a a Democrat and if you can win a race by two points, like Pearson Cinema did in twenty eighteen and Mark Kelley did in twenty twenty, with the help of a lot of Republicans, let’s say, ten percent of Republicans going your way, you know, a differential of say fifteen points on the independents, you have a chance of winning, but you’re not going to win by five points or eight

points. If

you’re a Democrat. So this kind of close race is what you would expect. And you could argue that, look, given the headwinds, the Democrats face here, Phoenix has the highest inflation rate in the country. Those are pretty stiff headwinds and yet their neck and neck. We have a conservative columnist here who I respect Bob Rob, a longtime columnist who says, you know what?

Is this worth a Trump ticket? Republicans might be up by five points across the board.

Oh, one

hundred percent. Just the fundamentals, favorite Republicans, in such an unbelievable way, reason that Democrats are competitive in so many of these places is because of the candidate quality. We’ve done a bunch of focus groups in Arizona with swing voters. And I would say there wasn’t a lot of love for masters, generally. People thought he was weird and disliked him.

But do you think people have been, like, warming up to him as he’d been running a decent campaign? And he’s one of the guys who like, kind of scrubbed Trump from his website, like, changed his position on abortion. Like, he did try to pivot. Yeah. So do you think he’s done that successfully?

You

know, he’s been campaigning more with Kerry Lake, who was doing better than he was. Maybe there’s a halo effect there. You’ve talked about negative partisanship. You know, lesser of two evils. You know, I think

what you

see on the Democratic side and Obama was here you know, he just emphasized democracy. Is democracy an issue you can win with?

But a

colleague who’s a pollster here and says, democrats are just not presenting this issue in the right way.

People

get

five dollar gallon gas by capital d democracy.

It’s tougher to

get. If you talk about your right to vote, The next election, what could happen if, say, a governor Kerry Lake and a Republican legislature and a secretary of state Mark Finchum went to work over the next two years on our election laws. If you put it in those terms, it might be, might

be

more relatable to voters. There’s still five dollar gallon gas and rent that’s way beyond many people’s means and grocery prices that are too high. That’s that’s a real fact they deal with every day. Maybe, you know, democracy be would be more relatable if presented in that

way. But

it’s not. And so it does fall back to those issues that everybody feels. Every voter feels it. Yeah. And so that has to be a significant thing when it comes to making a decision?

Howard Bauchner: It’s

true. Here’s a question though. I’m pretty interested in sort of like when we’re gonna get results from different places, but in Arizona, there’s, like, a weird thing happening with hand counting. You can tell me if I’ve got this wrong, but right, there’s, like, a couple of, like, counties or towns that are saying they wanna be able to hand count and that is gonna make things take forever. Everything seeps in when it takes longer, you know, that’s when they spiracy theory start to breed.

Yeah. What’s your what’s happening? Yeah. So let’s break this

down. So the hand count

is set to be

done in Cochise County, a Southern Arizona county. There are about sixty thousand votes there in an election. So, you know, pretty sparsely populated County. Trump won it by, I believe, twenty points, sixty forty, over Biden. It is a three person county board.

One Democrat two Republicans who are hardcore

election

deniers, and they want a hand count. And it’s all about keeping alive the idea that you can’t trust the election. They don’t seem to

know what they’re

doing. They don’t seem to understand how long this will take, but I’m not sure they care. As for who’s behind it, We know the local Republican Party Chair was one of the eleven fake

electors.

He’s involved as is

one member of the

county board who was at the January sixth intersection, another member who’s also a pretty far right Republican.

Right

now, it’s isolated to one county. Small county could be kind of a demonstration they’re thinking of, but it does appear aimed at just in some way, undermining faith in the election. They say it’s about restoring

faith. You

know, I guess, we’ll see when you look at the characters involved, you do have to wonder about the motives. Now, your question about

results.

Very good question. Our

elections change

dramatically in twenty twenty. Not for the reasons people might think.

Because Republican behavior

changed dramatically. Because of

at the urging of

Donald Trump, not to trust early ballots, they

showed up

at vote centers on election day with early ballots. If you show up on election day, those ballots don’t get counted immediately. They’ll be counted the next day or the day after because there’s a process that early ballots go through. The majority of early ballots will be counted by the Sunday night here in Maricopa County, but there’s still gonna be a few hundred thousand that aren’t. And right now, I can tell you our elections officials are concerned.

If you look at the turnout, there’s somebody who tracks turnout daily, turnout, Republican turnout is behind Democratic turnout as we head into the weekend. There is

a concern

that once again, you’re gonna see a large number of Republicans showing up on election day, Tuesday, to either hand in their early ballots or fill in a ballot on the spot. They’re concerned about scenes of lines outside polling places that will be again misinterpreted as problems. When they’re not problems. It’s a different kind of voter behavior, Republican behavior,

that’s affecting

the ballot count. So there will be ballots uncounted at midnight on Tuesday, there may be some races that aren’t decided yet. It’s

quite likely

there’ll be some races that aren’t decided yet. And that

could go

on for a couple days. But they are counting the ballots the way they always count the ballots following the rules and the procedures laid out.

And

all that. But people might be left with the impression that, oh, it’s not working. There are problems, but I would urge people who might be seeing these videos if it happens. I wanna add

that. I’m

not saying it will, but it looks like we’re setting

up for that. You

now, you know, the story. I’ll add one more thing. And this

was a new

law that came about after Donald Trump’s narrow defeat here in Arizona.

The threshold

for recounts, automatic recounts, has been lowered to fifteen

thousand votes. That’s

actually given how close our elections can be in twenty twenty, five of the elections, if this lot been in place, there would have been an automatic recount and five of the

elections. One

of those elections was the presidential election. And

so it is possible

we will see recounts in races which will delay the final

results possibly

into mid December or maybe even Christmas. Oh my god. What

a nightmare? Ugh. Alright. So

last question.

Yeah. Secretary of State race. Mark Vitcham, one of the scariest people running for secretary of state, and there’s a lot of scary people running for secretary of state. But one thing that’s cheered me up is that I have seen him pulling behind his challenger, Adrian Fontez, and also behind Carrie Link. Like, he doesn’t seem to be doing as well.

And people are actually spending money in that race to define him. Yeah. What do you think? What’s going on there?

There’s gonna be some fascinating tickets blitting on Tuesday, isn’t there? Yeah. You think You might vote for Kerry Lake for governor, but vote for Adrian Fontas for Secretary of

State. Yeah.

I mean, wow. I mean, you could see a Kelly Lake Fontez vote, you know, just bizarre. And do

you think that’s because there’s been an a concerted effort to define Finchum? He is

yes. He has faced an onslaught of advertising. And he has been pretty well defined. And frankly, if you see him online or in videos, he’s defining himself. He is probably the most hardcore election denier in the bunch.

He actually he worked on it. You know, November thirtieth twenty twenty, he convened this event at a downtown hotel with Rudy Giuliani and some of the best known election deniers to just push this forward, to keep the doubt alive. And he is still that

way. Graham, my man.

Thank you so much for being with us today. For breaking down Arizona. It is the state I am most deeply concerned about, and we may have to talk about it again. Alright. After the election.

Thanks for being here.

Sure thing. Stay in touch.

Thanks to brand Resnick for stopping by now. Along with some last minute predictions, I wanted to explore potential fallout from these midterms in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. And for that, I wanted to bring in the guy who’s an even bigger, optimist than I am. Mister Bill Crystal, my good friend. Hey, Bill.

I’m not usually

introduced that

way and I’m not usually that optimistic, but I’m happy to play that role here and I and I am actually slightly more optimistic than the conventional wisdom about Tuesday. So

Good to be

with you anyway. Right? I

mean, you you and I talk like, every day. And I would say through this, yeah, I’ve been trying to tell everybody like mixed bag. There’s some bright spots. I feel like you have even been more bullish in this tough environment

than anybody.

Maybe that’s a misread, but where where are you? So this is this will play on Saturday, so we’re just like three days out. Where are we? I mean,

so actually one reason

I was bullish or at least not super, super bearish, very early on in twenty twenty two. And everyone else, people forget this now. It was Red Wave, Red Sonami, oh my god, twenty ten, or nineteen ninety four all over again. And I said, I just didn’t see it in the data, and there were other reasons I think that might not happen. And you and I, I think, agreed that one reason was the extremism of some of the Republican nominees as they emerged in twenty twenty two.

And then, of course, the polls changed after jobs. I also meant would mention the world could be a return. And the polls changed in the summer, and I thought it was a rare phenomenon for me. I was sort of right about this and right a little bit ahead of other

people

that it wasn’t going to be a red wave. Then the polls reversed some in September, October, and and I sort of maybe stubbornly sticking to the non red wave thesis a little more than I should, though. I don’t know. The polls now are very mixed. And my take up where we are is very close races and very hard to predict.

And we don’t know what turnout model is right. Is there a hidden Trump turned out as I was in twenty twenty, and Republican turned out. Is there somewhat hidden Democratic turned out? The polls have been off in every election. They’ve been off half the time and undercounting republicans and half the time Democrats.

Everyone’s so freaked out by twenty sixteen and twenty twenty that we’re more cognizant that they undercounting the republicans. I would still bet on the Senate saying Democratic. I just think Democrats are gonna be okay in Arizona and probably Georgia and Wynn Pennsylvania, which means they could lose bad. And I think Ohio was very much in play and at least other states aren’t totally out of play for a democratic pick up, actually, a couple or two of them. So I I tend to think a Democratic senate.

I do think Republicans almost certainly win the house. And I think what’s happening, this is sort of political science point, but I think an interesting one for twenty seconds. The trumpy parts of blue states are becoming more trumpy. So parts of New York, parts of California. Where it’s Washington and Oregon that have, you know, demographics resembling, let’s say, central Pennsylvania, places

to go

well. They were sort of held back from going the way Pennsylvania and Ohio went because they’re, like, in such blue states, you know, if you’re in New York. But at the end of the day, just do the kind of very, like, thirty thousand foot look at some of these districts. They look a little bit like districts that have gone Republican and Trumpy in the Midwest and elsewhere. And so there are house seat hiccups possible for Republicans.

In in the senate races, on the other hand, you know, there are heck of a lot of young and diverse voters in Atlanta and suburban female voters in the suburbs of Philadelphia as well as Pittsburgh. And there the dynamic, I think, is somewhat different. And the Trump votes already manifest itself, you might say, in states like that, in twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty. And I feel like the upside’s a little more on the Democratic side if they can get a decent, young, voter turnout on election day. I think we could have slightly diversion results in the Senate and the House slightly divergent results in different parts of the country.

We’ve gotten so used to saying correctly that it’s a nationalized election these days and polarization and the old the old days when one state would go, you know, fifteen points Democratic and then neighboring state, fifteen points from public, and that doesn’t happen that much anymore. But it could have a little more than people expect. So I think we could have crosscutting cards to some degree. And finally, I’m the governor’s secretary to say, which you’ve been following so closely. I mean, I’ll just ask you this.

That those I think are very hard to read, but a little better for democrats than than one might have thought a few months ago. No? Yeah. I

mean, I think to the extent that when people talk about waves, the point about waves is that it sweeps all the things in its path. Right? And that’s why I’ve been like, The wave’s not quite the right thing here because I think, you know, it’s not gonna sweep up a guy like Doug Mastriano, not just because he’s a particularly bad Republican. But because the Democrat, Josh Shapiro, is a particularly good Democrat. The things that really stuck out in the focus groups where a lot of times, you know, people are like lesser of two evils and I just just voting against the worst person.

People had a really positive opinion of Josh Shapiro in the swing voting groups. New specific things that he’d done, like knew who he was and just felt favorably about him. And I think we should look look at him as a potential emerging sort of Democrat star, especially if if Oz either wins or comes very close, but like he beats Mastriano by ten points or seven points or something. Gretchen Whitmer, I know people are starting to get nervous about Michigan, and I understand why they’ve had upsets there before, but I think Whitmer has she sort of battled back from a place where people were kind of down on her and I think things are looking good for her. You know, eaters, and Katie Hobbs.

Those people are kinda in, like, sisolac in Nevada. Those things are much more on the knife’s edge. But I do think that there’s just gonna be some of the democrat governors that do just fine. Look, if you if you’re looking through the lens like I am, which is sort of a democracy lens as opposed to, like, a partisan a democrat lens, the secretaries and state and governors races matter a great deal. And so I think they’re just gonna be more of a mixed bag.

Obviously, the thing I’m scared about the most is

Carrie Lee. Yeah,

and the effect of that after the election. If if some percentage of the candidates who were only running because Trump recruited them, supported them, helped them in the primary, And then if they win the general election, which I would say, Carrie Lakes basically in that category, awesomes in that category, Hershel Walker’s in that category, the electoral candidate in Wisconsin, Michaels. And they all had Trump support. Trump pulled them across the finish line in primaries against, in many cases, better established. Republicans in their own states who were supported by the Republican establishment.

So Trump truthfully could take credit, Frank, getting the nomination. It was in a while. You got the nomination, but I mean, they can’t win the general election. We’re a suicide mission. And of course, our Democratic friends idiotically put money in to help some of those people.

Right? In their primaries. And if they win the general, the degree to which Trump gets to say, these people wouldn’t be here without me. It would be not a false statement. Right?

And they won, with me strongly supporting them and doing rallies for them. I think Trump’s strength in the Republican Party becomes greater than it is

If he’s

there with Kerry Lake and Oz and Walker as winners two days after election

day, it’s

a a continuation of the world we’ve been living in, but maybe even the saturation, don’t you think, on the Republican side? I do.

I do think it

intensifies something. So, you know, like, there’s been lots of times where people really accentuate the divisions between the McConnell Wang and Trump and everyone’s always looking for that establishment, MAGA fight. That stuff’s over. Like, Trump will have won definitively if he pulls all these guys over the finish line. And he will bounce into a twenty twenty four nomination as a kingmaker and the the way that the world is the most different is just how many people owe their careers to him as he’s running for office.

Like, they will all rush to endorse him. There will be no room for DeSantis or anybody else. Right? Because Carrie Lake will be the newly minted governor of Arizona. Trump will announce as we’re taping this on Friday, but Everyone’s got these scoops that Trump’s looking like he’s gonna announce on November fourteenth.

And so what all those people who they all rush to endorse Trump? And it’s basically over. Right? Like, who challenges him at that point? I’ll slightly

be less, you know, fatalistic because I quite overbid. It’s it’s strengthens him hugely and people who work kidding themselves about how, yo, we’re having a meeting with Glenn Youngkin in two weeks, and he thinks that’s a blame for him. I I tend to agree very much that unless people fight back very hard, very fast, and this is be an interesting test. All these donors who are telling to scientists privately, we like you better than Trump. You’re you’re more respectable.

You could win. Trump could lose. Well, they say two days after election today, I’m putting up billions of dollars for DeSantis. So will they kind of slink away and, you know, the Iran good luck. Yeah.

Let’s be in touch in a few months. Right? Say how it plays out a little bit. Right? I feel like you’re totally right about Trump’s strength.

The other thing that’s gonna start happening is if you’re an ambitious young you know, politician or someone thinking going to politics. Carrie like wins, Michael’s wins. What lesson do you learn? You learn that you should be like them? You learn that the most important thing you can do in a Republican primary almost anywhere in the country, honestly, at this point, is have Trump’s support.

The second most important thing you can do is sound like a Trump y election denying conspiracy, fostering, bigoted nadirous type because that’s the path to success. And so the degree to which this is a dynamic process. This is something you and I have always been struck by. I will say honestly, other people tend to take a sort of snapshot view of this and if they don’t see that it’s a movie, not a not a photograph, you know. The degree of the increasing radicalization of the party then, it’s not just the Portman and SaaS and until we leave the Senate and they’re replaced by if they win the J.

D. V.ances and and doctor Ozons of the world to owe their careers to Trump. It’s also that the people who run for the house next time and for the senate next time at your state, office next time are many Carrie Lakes and many Michaels is in Wisconsin and so forth. So I think the dynamic is in a very bad direction if though if they win. Some of those people lose, if the Harris Falls Ride, if some of these truck candidates lose and more than lose than the non tropic candidates.

If there aren’t non tropic candidates much anymore, then that stems that somewhat, but all he needs probably just from a b d a point of view. I mean, you’re the expert on this. That you think is I mean, lake is probably the biggest. Right? I mean, if if lake wins, you know, odds will lose whatever and people will say, well, federal law says governor.

So if Carrie Lake beats the sitting secretary of state in Arizona, after the whole world had decided she was so far beyond the pale that she couldn’t win. That’s awfully big for Trump, I think. It isn’t, you

know, it’s something I’m watching. All the anti anti’s already kinda line up and they’re doing this thing. They say, I mean, yeah, of course, she’s a crack butt, but man is she talented. Boy, is she formidable? Listen to how she answered that question.

Like, they’re already setting themselves up just to follow over themselves about her political acumen. Carrie Lake is a real game changer, not the least of which is she becomes kind of the Trump surrogate. Obviously, she becomes a vice presidential pick, but there’s a lot of people auditioning for that job. A lot of women, Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, other than ships probably sailed. I don’t think the scientists would do it, but I don’t know.

I don’t know. But the extent to which it just becomes a parlor game about Trump again, and everybody’s talking about Trump, and Trump is on the top of everyone’s mind, like, I don’t know. I just was on a secret pod with JBL talking about this, but what do you do? Like, what are the chances that the Republican national committee just

decides Yeah.

Who needs to have a race? Why have a device of primary? Right. Or Pence and Christie and,

you know, East Duchess and Rowan, but actually, you just said to some young and don’t. And Pompeo doesn’t and cotton doesn’t and suddenly it’s pretty what sided race, I should think. I mean, on the democratic side, since you mentioned, I think a point that’s really been neglected, which is they’re pretty good Democratic candidates who are running and winning in some places. I mean, Shapiro, And that’s the way that Tim Brian, even if he loses by a point or two, and we don’t know what will happen there. You know, pretty aggressive race.

We’ll Democrats have to wait to get these people together and say, okay, you guys have actually outperformed in very tough states. You guys know something about how to win in this universe we’re living in in America in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four. Tell us what we need to be doing, or the Democrats just gonna be sort of oblivious and, I don’t know, do whatever they do. I mean, I

think one of

the main downsides to sort of rerunning Trump is that people think it’s it is just that, a rerun. I think that Democrats should treat this as the existential threat that it is. This guy tried to stage a coup to stay empowered last time. He will now have a ton of secretaries of state, governors, senators of people in his corner that he didn’t have last time and not to mention all the state legislatures, you know, all the people who held the line with the exception of Brad Ravensburger, everybody who held the line is gone, like,

but obviously

And Kemp and Kemp and

Georgia. And Kemp and Georgia. I’m thinking, like, in

the state legislators, you know,

right? Those people

who are gone. And so

And do you see an Arizona who was quite important? That’s right. Forget. And so to your point about

how everybody’s getting worse and, like, you know, Trump spots of mini generation of mini trumps, and then they themselves spawn a new generation of mini Carrie Lakes and mini Marjorie Taylor Greens. On a very precarious situation in if the Democrats at that point don’t take the lesson very hard very seriously. And if Tim Ryan does come within one pointer, he’s the one place where I’m willing to be very bullish. Tim Ryan could potentially pull through and and do an upset. But if he comes close, he should become the national it’s the Democratic Party.

Or a guy like Josh Shapiro is very impressive. So they’ve gotta start thinking about that. I think they’re insane to run by and again, but there’s lots of people who disagree with me on that.

Yeah, I’m

with you on that. But even if they don’t run with I well, I’m sure why I wanna talk to them because there’s not much of a sense that they could learn something from these candidates. Who will have radically outperformed in a tough environment with eight point five percent inflation and and, you know, an unpopular president. I mean, if Tim Ryan gets within just think you could win, but let’s get Vegas with a point to two in Ohio, it provides a thirty seven percent approval or something. And, you know, the state’s been very lumpy the last two cycles.

And the national party hasn’t spent much money on him, which is kind of unbelievable in my opinion. I mean, there’s a lot to be learned to write. I just think at the feeling that they don’t they don’t think of it quite that way though, you know, for some reason. Maybe they will. We can get them.

We can get them to think that way. Well, I was gonna say, you know,

you say politics is contingent, and I think that that is the case that if Democrats get defeated in major ways they lose these senate seats. There’s gotta be some reevaluation going into twenty twenty four knowing they’re facing Trump again. When you just said about this something, you know, we can do. I could get dour about what the possibility of people learning the lessons that need to be learned, but the fact is a whole bunch of people are gonna have to stand up. And just say, it can’t go on like this.

Like, you have to become more politically popular. You have to change this conversation. You can’t keep doing the same thing over and over again. Right. Anybody who’s happy about the idea of rerunning against Trump because they think he’s beatable, I think is playing a dangerous

game.

Yeah.

Totally.

Bill, any last words here? Because I don’t wanna keep you too long. The main lesson to be

taken from

twenty twenty two is Trump’s not going away. Trumpism isn’t going away. It dominates the Republican Party, and the Republican Party is gonna get fifty percent, maybe you can get forty nine, maybe fifty one percent, right, of the vote around the country. Basically, it’s very, very And so confidence that, oh, man, they’re really discrediting themselves. Can you believe these cookies, theories, they’re sprouting?

Confidence that that they’re gonna pay a price for that without making them pay price, without having a democratic strategy and messaging operation, and candidates who are capable of making them pay a price. That that is the biggest mistake to make. Whichever way these races that are on an knife edge go. Bill

Crystal. Thanks for coming by the Focus Group pod sharing your wisdom with us. We will see how things go. May the optimists always win? I’m

I’m with you in that

hope. See you. See

you.

Alright. Always

fun to have a visit for my pal, Bill Crystal. But now I’m gonna do a little, like, point of personal privilege. There is a guy in my office. Sometimes I’ve mentioned him on the other podcasts His name is Gunnar Ramer and he started as an intern with me like eighteen months ago. He is deeply impressive and he’s one of these guys He’s like a young Steve Kornacki.

We have whiteboards in our office, but he’s the guy who sits with his head and all the pulling. He has strong feelings about television advertising versus digital advertising, and he basically helps us set the strategy for a lot of the work we do in the actual races that we’re playing in. And so I talk to him every day, but I wanted you to hear from him because he is somebody who is deep in the weeds on this stuff. And I thought it would be fun to talk to Gunnar, thanks for being here, man. Thanks for having me.

I’m really excited.

Okay. So because

we had Ralston and Resnick on we’ve we’ve been focusing on the western states like Nevada and Arizona. But we haven’t talked as much about Pennsylvania and Georgia. Why don’t you give us an update on where both of those stand? Yeah, so

we can start with Pennsylvania. Listen, a Fox News poll had Joshua Piro up double digits over Doug Mastriano. And we’ve seen it tighten a little bit. Republicans are coming home as they start to pay attention to races. Doug Mastrono has been able to do some small TV buys, but Josh Shapiro is in a very good position right now, and I’m not concerned on the democracy scale.

About the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race. However, if I was, you know, working for John Federman’s campaign, I would be concerned, I think, pointing to our last PA focused group with these OZ leaners who saw the debate performance. I think that Republicans in a very real way are coming home to doctor Ozen. It’s not like you need fifty percent plus one, like in Georgia, in the Pennsylvania senate race. You just need a majority of votes.

And I think that us has positioned himself as he’s attempted to pivot and be more palatable to these swing voters. I think that it’s worked because again, these attacks and it’s ruthless attacks, it’s very clear and obvious to voters when they hear the message from Senate Leadership Fund and other Republican outside groups. Hitting Federman on crime and inflation. And I think that we’re seeing voters react to that negatively and coming home to us.

How come you think that

did experiments on dogs stuff didn’t do more damage? Because

it’s confusing. Right? It’s easy when you can just say John Federman was said this about cash bail or or whatnot. And then it sticks to very clear message. These people are being humbled with add over add right now.

And when you have a clear or consistent message coming from both awesomeself and outside groups. I think it makes it easier for voters to understand. And I think these wacky ahhs hits that Democrats have on him isn’t working outside of maybe the carpet bag or stuff. And to be clear, I think that there’s a lot of people when they’re taking a poll and say, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about doctor Oz? I think they say unfavorable.

A lot of them do, majority of them do, but I think some of these unfavorable OZ voters are still saying, yes, I’m voting for OZ over Federman for two reasons because I don’t trust veteran on issues related to crime and inflation. And doctor Oz isn’t some crazy person like Doug Mastriano. You know, these are traditional Republicans who liked check off a box and say, hey, I’m voting for one republican. And it’s definitely not Doug Mastroama for

them. Alright. So

you know I agree with you on this because again, we are in brain sharing mode. But what I’ve always kind of thought if Federman pulls this out, it’s gonna be because a bunch of Trump voters vote for him. Because they are like, Steeltown folks in Pittsburgh. Like, it’s not. The college educated suburban voters that we normally talk to the flippers, people who went for twelve and sixteen, buying in twenty.

Those are college educated

suburban Republicans.

They are right leaning independents or moderate Republicans. And like they can get comfortable with us. Don’t you think there’s going to be some subset of Mastriano Federman voters? Or I I’ve just I’ve always thought that that was gonna be something that existed and that they could even potentially under count those people because they do tend to chronically under count these voters in the polls So, is that not a possibility? I think

that right after the primary, there was a lot of talk if this was possible. And I think that at that time, it was possible, but I’m not sure John Federman rammed the kind of campaign that he needs to. I understand that he naturally comes off as some sort of populist, but I look to Tim Ryan in Ohio I think he’s done a much better job talking to these, you know, maybe traditional Democrats who went Obama, Obama, Trump. Trump, I think that someone like Tim Ryan has done a much better job of doing that than someone like John Federman. And Tim Ryan hasn’t been hit on crime and inflation the same way that someone like John Federman has.

Just because if Federman’s past comments. And I think before the primary two, we talked about why the Federman candidacy was something that could not work out for Democrats. And we knew these hits were coming. And over the summer, I think people got a little bit too excited And those that could sort of see SLF hits on Federman are coming. They’re coming after Labor Day and they’re really gonna work.

And that’s what we’re seeing. And that I think doesn’t happen if Connor Lamb is the Democratic nominee. I think he’s making the same exact pitch as Josh Shapiro is, and I think that the dynamics would be a lot different. Should he than the Democratic nominee. Yeah.

Poor one out for Counter

Lam, man. Alright. Let’s talk about Georgia. Eric Erickson is really pushing the narrative like Hirsch’s got it locked up. Everyone came home.

No one’s mad about the just scandal after scandal. The kids he didn’t raise and the fortunes he paid for allegedly. And, you know, it’s not even going to a runoff. Walkers got it in the bag. What do you

think? I

still think it goes to a runoff. I think Brian Kemp wins handily. Over Stacy Abrams, and I think that you’re gonna have enough support for the libertarian candidate, and you’re gonna have Walker sitting around forty nine, and I think warmock a little bit under that, and that’s gonna be a runoff. But I guess, Sarah, my one question for you, and we’ve talked about this before, and it’s who has the advantage if there is a runoff in the center race? How do you think about that?

Yeah. This

one’s fun to game out because Alright. So right now Hersha Walker is no doubt gonna get helped just like Brad Ravensburger did in the primary by the long tail of Brian Kemp. And that goes away in a runoff. Camp’s not on the ballot. A lot of traditional Republicans aren’t turning out or might not.

You know? That’s

a possibility, and that hurts Hersha Walker. I think it probably comes down to whether or not Republicans have already have fifty one seats in the senate. Because if the senate hangs in the balance like it did last time, I just think that the Republicans will spend more money than god to pick up that senate seat. Like, if that’s the only one, they will do anything they can to push Hershel Walker over the edge So, I don’t know, it’s tough though. I well, do you have do you have a sense of this one?

Donald Trump

gets very involved, I think. In this senate runoff. And that wasn’t the case in January of twenty twenty one. He was actively telling people that the election was rigged. And so long as Kemp avoids the runoff, and it’s just about Hersha Walker, versus Rafael warnock, I think Trump comes in heavy there, and he really helps with the the rural vote in Georgia that didn’t come out in the same way back in the runoff in twenty twenty one.

Yeah. It’s hard

to know though. I mean, Georgia’s been the one place that’s kinda bucked Trump I think that Hershel benefits more from Kemp because Kemp gives him the normie validation. I think Trump, when he gets real involved, I’m I actually wonder how much that helps them. At

that point,

again, Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump will never have been on the same page so clearly as they would be fighting for Hershel Walker to get that sense. That’s right. Okay. Michigan governor’s race. Howard Bauchner: I

think Whitmer

is going to be fine. There’s been a little bit of panic, I think, with Michigan Democrats and seeing the Republicans come home. Yeah. There’s been some outside spending. There’s been debates between Whitmer and Dixon and Republicans are coming home.

And I think Whitmer is still in a fine position. And I think the further down ballot you go with these wacky Republican candidates, the democrats are gonna be just fine. I mean, with Christina Caramo, Michigan Secretary of State Canada. She has spent almost no money on television, same with Matt DiFerno. He spent some monies, the attorney general candidate in Michigan.

But I do wanna talk about what happened in Michigan that’s a little bit different because everybody likes to pick on Republican primary voters and they’ve made a lot of poor decisions this primary cycle with Carano and DePerno both got the GOP nomination at the convention. Right? So delegates voted for them, and they beat the establishment picks. They beat elected officials handily. Christina Caramo, QAnon says that abortions are satanic murder, all these crazy fringe podcast appearances, and she got two thirds.

Of the vote of the convention just because she was handpicked by Donald Trump. Seeing with the perno, he beats a former house speaker, Tom Leonard, easily in the convention. Just goes to speak that, you know, there’s a problem with Republican primary voters, but there’s also a problem with these conservative activists too who are shoveled through these crazy candidates. And Matt DePernod is under investigation for tampering with election machines. Right?

And he easily won. And there’s this recent study I think about it all the time. And what it took a look at is conservative activists and how they perceive elected officials and how conservative they think they are. And what the study found is that no matter how conservative someone’s voting record was they were perceived as less conservative if they did not support Trump. Now we know this with Republican primary voters.

Liz Cheney, doesn’t matter how much you talked about, how much of the times you voted with Donald Trump or Tom Rice in South Carolina, a very conservative member of Congress. If you don’t support Trump, you’re out with Republican primary voters. I think this Michigan example is that not only at the Republican primary voter level, are you out if you don’t support Trump, Same with GOP activists. And we saw that in Michigan. I think it’s a great example of that.

Howard Bauchner: You haven’t sort of

burst on the scene in

political punditry yet, but you will. But you’re you’re looking like deep at all these numbers because we’re, you know, you’re the one who helps us think about where and how we’re gonna spend our money. And so because you don’t have this scourge of conventional wisdom constantly being thrust upon you. Do you have any things that you think all the big shots are missing that, like, all the things they talk about in the cable networks or just silly narratives or bad narratives or they’re missing the point or there’s something you’ve seen that people aren’t talking about enough that’s contributing to this political dynamic. That’s

a great question. I don’t know. I have one critique that I’ve seen a little bit, but it’s a critique that others are making too. And it’s the looking at the early vote as a guide to how the midterms are gonna look. I think just doesn’t make sense because as we see realignment take place.

We can see who voted so far in the midterm, so we don’t know how they voted. Right? It’s hard to predict what the crossover support is. So I just idea of looking at early vote and all of that is some sort of predictor I think is missed by some political pundits.

Yeah. These last

few days right before the election are an actual nightmare because you desperately want answers and so you’re looking for all the anything you can find to give you some sense. But at the end of the day, nobody knows anything. Political punditries a scam. Nobody should participate. Alright.

Last question, Gutter. Are there any, like, upsets you think could happen? Like, what are your what are your outlier races that where you think people would be like, oh my god. That’s amazing.

I have a fun one for you. And I wanna preface this with saying I do not think it’s going to happen. But I would love if it happened, and that is this Oklahoma gubernatorial race. Right? It’s Joy Hofmeister who is an elected official statewide in Oklahoma and she is mounting a very decent challenge against a really bad Republican governor, Kevin Stitt, who has pissed off the tribes in the state.

Parents are mad that previously had to go to four day school days, and it would be absolutely great to have one of these former Republicans’ term Democrat beat a really bad Republican, and I love that, but I wanna ask you, Sarah, do you have any fun upsets that you’re looking forward to?

I mean,

know, I

bet to farm on Tim Ryan here. You know, like, there’s two outlier races. Right? One is New Hampshire with Don Baldwin who is a total insane person. Election denying lunatic.

Yep. And then there’s O’Dea in Colorado, who’s like a normie Republican from

the old days. And

who has said that the election was free and fair, who doesn’t want Donald Trump’s endorsement, and I don’t know. There’s like a part of me that would like to see someone like him do well while all the others fail. Like, I wanna see walker go down, masters go down, fans go down, and, like, those guys went down, but like suddenly there was an upset in Colorado, I would find that to be a good outcome because it would help with the narratives even though we’re still pushing a bolder uphill. That the insane people lose, and if you could nominate some decent people, they might win. No.

This

is totally

right. And what we should really hope for is Joe O’Dea does very well. And Heidi Gennahl, who’s the gubernatorial candidate going against chair Polist, does poorly. Because the day after she won the Colorado primary, she’s going on Steve Bannon show, she doesn’t call January sixth in its direction, and it would send a signal that if you nominate a moderate Republican who’s out on Trump, this is how you can perform. You can outperform the maga terrible Republican candidates.

And also Colorado has a Republican candidate who beat an absolute lunatic former county clerk named Tina Peters, and she won the Republican primary there in Colorado. So that is it’s a very interesting state. Yeah. They got a good Republican Secretary

of State candidate. Colorado too. Like, they’ve got a couple of good Republicans that it would be nice to see some of them do well in as long as all the other ones lose, as long as the bad guys lose. That’s right. Gunnar Ramer, thank you for coming and nerding out with me on a focus group podcast.

And Thanks to all of you. This is our last focus group podcast before Election Day. We will be back a few more times before the end of the year to sort of you clean up from these races analysis, find out who our swing voters ultimately voted for, so there’s gonna be more focus groups in your future. I’ve gotten so much out of these focus groups the last few years, and I hope you have to remember to vote if you haven’t already, keep the faith.

Thanks for listening.