The Iowa Focus Groups Want Them Some Trump

Hey there. It’s JBL. On the Secret Show with Sarah Longwell today, we talked about her focus groups with Iowa Republican voters, and also the new poles from New Hampshire. It’s pretty wild stuff. Here’s the show.

Okay. So, Sarah, you have been in Iowa, being famous with Judy Woodruff? Who I have long long really admired. I think she’s great. First of all, congratulations.

That’s very big time.

Well, Judy Woodriff is indeed the best, but she’s a big follower of the Focus group stuff And she’d asked me if we could do it like, we thought we could do it for TV. She’s got, like, a new segment. Now that she’s not hosting, she’s doing this like America at a Crossroads stuff. And so it was interesting because she she really wanted to dig in on, like, the divide in America and, like, how people felt about the opposing party. In this case, we were doing the two time Trump voters.

Two groups, one non college, one college, but I had not done a live group in a while, like, where it was me, around a table, with people, and so the camera has added it, But, you know, focus groups like ride to bike, and the first group, the non college group, was just a banger, because they were they were, like, hanging out in the the green room, like, where you before we we brought everybody in, and so they got to chatting, and so they really new. I think Are you calling them with alcohol?

No alcohol. You get,

like, you get, like, snacks. You get, like, pretzel sticks and chips. And so, by the time they came in, they were pretty comfortable, which is nice because I was I was worried about doing it for the cameras. But they were the other thing I was worried about is that I would, you know, do one of these for TV and that the group would sound sort of completely different than

the

rest of the groups I do, and that would be some kinda weird outlier that I’d have to try to explain. But it wasn’t. It was exactly like every other group. We did to so the the non college group basically went seven one for Trump. We talked a lot about

Is it two time Trump voters?

Yep. From Iowa. So we’re gonna caucus in the twenty twenty four primary. One of these interesting is that they Judy had specifically asked like

Judy.

She’s like, I

mean, walk your mail. My buddy, Judy.

And she’d wanted a range of opinions. And so we kinda go back and forth because I was like, well, you just can’t guarantee there’s gonna be a range of opinions.

Like, you just get you don’t

get what you get. And so we had screened just to try to get a couple people who, like, weren’t as into Trump in both groups so we could hear what it sounds like when somebody wants to move on from Trump. And but there was still only one guy in the first group, even with that, who was not gonna vote didn’t wanna vote for Trump in the Republican primary. The most interesting stuff was the indictment stuff because they were very clear that the indictment made them wanna vote for Trump more

—

Mhmm. — that, you know, the the whataboutism is super strong. Like, if people are if people are wondering, so something that’s interesting in the data that I don’t think people have quite gotten their heads around is there’s a lot of polls that come out that show that even there’s even a group of Republicans who think that Trump is guilty, but that doesn’t mean they’re not gonna vote for him. There was a guy in the second group, the college educated group who was like, I read the indictment. Trump is guilty.

We should not go down this path again. We should not nominate this guy again. And then right at the end before we wrapped, this guy had been really this guy was really thoughtful. He was very kind. He was even objecting sort of the frame of some of my questions about how they felt about Democrats because he thought it was sort of, like, overly negative.

And so I really liked this guy, but I was dying to ask. So right at the end, I was like, so if it’s Trump and Biden, who will you vote for? And he’s like, oh, I’ll vote for Trump. It’s like it’s very important. The stakes are too high.

And so, like, that is in the numbers. Like, that there are I think these college educated groups of of voters not exclusively, but I think that’s a big chunk of it because they How

did your college educated group break?

So they went hapsies, four and four. And these were to Santa Trump head to heads. Although, the funniest thing about the I just tweeted this, but it was, like, clear as day. Their heads were with DeSantis. They Ron DeSantis is, like, the main alternative, but their hearts were with Vivek, Ramaswamy.

Oh, boy. Name is pronounced Vive Ake. Like a heartache, vive ache. And they knew that, because I was I was having to follow that. Normally, there’s a he pops in a bunch of groups where somebody will be like, oh, you know who I like and But they’ll they’ll kind of be like, that vivid, you know, guy.

And this group, he’s been in Iowa a bunch. And so they have seen him a bunch.

I have been telling people for a couple months now. Don’t sleep on ViveK. Vivec, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis. I don’t sleep on this guy. He’s got the crazy energy.

Well, tell me you so you and I we did a whole episode at one point about how this is something that you said a long time ago that I had just This is one of those not j b l is always right, but like j b l looking around corners has like a a deep insight about a dynamic that you might not otherwise think of. But your idea that, like, the actual alternative of Trump was likely to be a black swan candidate that maybe we hadn’t even heard of.

Yeah.

I don’t know that I don’t because the the way that they were talking about Vivec was more like, I don’t think he can get there, I just don’t, you know, but like, he’s the one I’m most interested in. And so, you know, because they all armchair quarterback, they tend to have sometimes there’s like a collective act, like, until more people break for him, and people feel like he actually has a chance, which is not impossible. But there was, they liked him and they liked Tim Scott. That was the other person. That so it’s and the first group actually of non college was actually had more women than men.

It was, like, six two women. And it was interesting because some of them had seen him on the view. Him Scott going on the view was smart. And I don’t know if you saw the clip of him on the view, but it was quite good. I’m glad

you didn’t talk about his banking committee hearings?

He didn’t. That’s not what he talked about.

Okay.

I was such an interesting place to talk to people though just because they are really tuned in. And because the the people come there. And so, I’m not surprised Vivec is popping a little more there than anywhere, just because he’s showing up.

What did they think of DeSantis? Ron DeSantis, do they do they love him? Or are they a little, like, I don’t know.

So, they like him. They don’t love him. They like him, but You know, it’s a little bit this thing about him being a regular politician. This is what Vivec has.

Yes.

These borders do not like people that are regular politicians.

They’re done with that. They know that they realize they don’t have to take that anymore. That they can win the presidency with a fucking reality game show host. They they’re never going back.

Oh my god. A woman. There was a woman in the group named Nola, and she was she was great. You know, I think about focus group participants slightly differently than I think about regular people, because I actually what I what I really appreciate in those moments is both candor and, like, ability to articulate sort of why they think the things that they think, and she was great at both. She literally said, and I’ve had a lot of people say this in the groups.

I asked them if they liked the direction of the party, I was asking them if they and yes. The answer was at a resounding yes from all of them, they wanna go doesn’t matter if it’s Trump or not Trump. They wanna go in the Trump direction. The Make America great again direction. They all say they’ve gotten more conservative.

One of the most conservative and the groups had voted for Obama talked about what our regret it was and how how much he’s changed and educated himself since his Obama vote.

Oh, has he done his own research?

They’ve they they’ve all done they’ve all done a lot of research.

A lot

of a lot of podcast listeners, you know, Buck Sexton and Clay Davis was name checked. The blaze was name checked. Obviously, a lot of Fox News that were always the same of there were Fox News Years, and there were Tucker viewers. Those are slightly different. This guy was a Tucker viewer, who had changed his mind.

You know, he’s a dude, probably in his late thirties, early forties. But the but she, Nola, said, we’re never going back. And and people say that. And that is such a it’s why these it’s it’s the thing that Nikki Haley Mike Pence and the rest of them don’t get about what’s happening with their voters. They they just don’t they don’t know this for, I I guess, because it’s so in there, it’s so clear, it’s so deep.

Now did these people clock how how are they on policy? Are they against the Biden initiative to spend billions of dollars on rural electrical coops? Do they think that that’s terrible?

No. They mostly talked about open borders

—

Oh. — and they talked about the economy. I talked about Tim and I did a topper for the we have a cool Tammy Baldwin, Sunday Tano coming your guys’ way, but when we taped our where we did it about your Biden Sunny Days triad, you know, Biden morning in America. And it’s just such a contrast, like, when you sort of pull together the stats and paint a rosy picture, I get it. I I I Tim and I picked a knit over the inflation numbers because just because they’re sort of coming down overall, they’re still way up.

Compared to a few years back, but that’s what people talk about. They say that they think the economy is in shambles, that everything is so expensive. When they go to the grocery store, housing prices, gas prices, like, that is what they talk about.

Gas prices are down. This is the grocery store stuff, dairy, milk, meat is down, vegetables are up. Like, I I understand people have feelings, but that’s just not what reality is, and I don’t I don’t know how to fight with them about that, the people. I

wait. Sorry. Can I tell you one other thing that got

brought out

of gate? It’s gonna give

you a transition,

which is the other thing that people namechecked out of the gate as an issue, because I pressed them a little bit when they were saying, you know, ugh, the policies are just and I was like, well, what can you, you know, which policies? And Woke policies was sort of the response, and

then quickly went into trans issues.

The the women men playing women’s sports. I was surprised. I came up at the top in both groups, and I wasn’t surprised. I hear it. I I this this group, though, is just, like, it was just so top of my Yeah.

Do they have a lot of that in Iowa? Are the Iowa girls high school sports teams being ravaged by trans trans girls playing and winning all the things?

I wanna say, that actually Leah Thomas, I don’t know I don’t know why this was such a big there was some big story there

who no longer competes in sports.

Because she graduated. She’s graduated.

Yeah. Like Right.

But it’s but, like, somebody somebody said out of the gate, like because I asked about this because I was like, I didn’t know what he was talking about. But he was like, you know, do these biological men showering with the women? And I was like, when I I asked when where does that happen. And but he said, Leah Thomas, and I I didn’t know whether or not that was true, whether Leah Thomas showered with the rest of the team. Maybe maybe she does.

Again, we have had an entire episode about locker room showers, and you this vision of everybody showering together in a locker room sounds like prison, not athletics. I don’t think anybody does that or has done that since, like, nineteen fifty, that’s not a thing. That’s what prison showers are like. Dude, we

have talked about this, but I don’t remember what I can’t remember what I said, but I I’m sure that involved I played college sports and you did shower together and I hated it.

Yeah. And I said, when you said that to me, that’s when I said, that’s insane, that’s prison. That’s not how it works until a die. I have never heard of any we had again, nobody took showers like that. Everyone, you know, if you were in a locker room where it was group showers, nobody used them.

Okay. I I mean, I don’t know what to tell you. Like, the showers that were bed and now I’m, you know, I’m dating myself. This was twenty plus years ago now, but like, they were I mean, every locker room was built differently, but like, lots of them yeah. It was just like

You are the non renovated ones, had group showers. And what I’m saying is in all the athletics, I did in high school and college. If there was a place with group showers, you’re like, yeah. You know what? I’ll get on the bus and in my own stink, and I’ll shower when I get home.

This is what I did. But I was That’s what everybody did.

Nobody used green showers.

That’s wrong. I was the outlier, hundred percent.

Really?

Yeah. Definitely. We have had this conversation, and I’ve said this to you before. I’m sorry. I don’t think you did you play college athletics?

Yes. Yes. I did.

Okay. Okay. Okay.

I and I’ve done believe me, we would have sooner died than, like, all shower together. It’s, like, weird. It’s uncomfortable. No. Thank you.

Okay. So that brings me to a great I wanna play a clip for you of Donald Trump speaking in Greensboro. This week to a group of Greensboro Republican types. Okay. So bear bear with me here for a moment.

In critical race theory, transgender, and Saturday, and other inappropriate racial sexual or political content will not show you. It’s amazing how strongly people feel about that. You see, I’m talking about cutting taxes. People go like that. Talking by talking about transgender, everyone goes crazy.

Who would have thought five years ago you didn’t know what the hell it was? Donald Trump just out there speaking the truth because he’s right. This is what I don’t understand. So I I wrote about this yesterday. The Biden administration building a couple of bridge crossings in in Alabama and other this is part of a program.

Across the country and more rural areas to try to make it easier for first responders to get into communities at places air trains frequently come and stop. We’re cutting off access and and to to roads to people. I don’t know that there is a single trans athlete playing high school sports in the state of Alabama. If there is, it sure as hell isn’t the Biden administration’s job to do anything either for or against it, and yet trans high school athletes is going to drive. I I I bet I bet my entire house.

More votes in Alabama than the building of actual infrastructure in their communities that makes their lives better. I don’t understand it, Sarah Longwell,

you do understand it.

No, I don’t. I thought that people cared about the economy and kitchen table issues, not the and and the stuff happening in their neighborhood. Again, I’ve Believe me. If if your entire school in in Smith City, Alabama, is just rid if half the kids are trans now and the the men the boys football team from two thousand and twenty two is now the girls’ soccer team in two thousand twenty three, then I could say, like, yeah. Alright.

That’s not the federal government’s job, but I could see them saying, hold what just happened here. That doesn’t seem to be the case. These people were living their lives exactly as they did two years ago, five years ago. The difference is they’re angry that somebody somewhere else may or may not be living their lives differently. Like, I don’t know.

Like, maybe San Francisco is you know, has trans athletes in one of their schools or something, and that makes them angry. I don’t understand it.

Well, I’ll tell the world. I mean, okay, fine. I mean, I and I will answer you sincerely even though I know

that you know this a truth. First of all, the media that they

consume is replete with every story. Anywhere that it’s happening, there hearing about it, and they’re hearing about it sort of constantly, which makes it seem like it’s happening a lot more than it is, but also it is really happening in certain instances, right? So the, there’s a women’s bike I don’t really know anything about biking, so I don’t know whether they call it a tournament or what? A race? I guess a race?

Probably a race, not a tournament. Race.

That has been dominated by a a trans athlete. And, you know, March it’s something like Martinez and Avertalova. Like tweets about in frustration. And so, and other, there’s like a real divide in the world of women’s sports. Over this.

Totally understand that. And I believe me, I get that. But that’s not like Joe Biden doesn’t do anything about that. That’s not what

Okay. But but this is this is about is about people and this is this is how people talked about it in the focus groups where they’re just like, you know, the world has gone upside down. Men are women, and you know, black is white, and up is down, and the world’s gone crazy, and everyone’s lost their minds. And like, it doesn’t it’s not about Biden in particular. It’s about the level of catastrophizing that they feel over how things are changing and things in the culture are changing.

And so, like, when they hear that, all the time, they feel like and like, I agree that it’s not happening nearly as much as they think. It might not be happening quite as little as you think, too. Like, it does come up quite a bit now. And I think that the that part of the problem is, like, the n c double a or the bodies that govern these things. It’s just gonna to come up with a very clear set of standards if this to to sort of take this issue off the table or just have it be what it is so that people so anyway, that is one of the reasons you’re talking about.

The other thing, just on the economic piece, I know this is something that Biden been pretty concerned about, which is they passed their infrastructure bill, and they’re now in the process of rolling it out in all kinds of places, the different things, And guess who shows up at all the ribbon cuttings. Guess who put

that president? Yeah. The the Republicans who voted against it.

That’s right. And voters do not know the Like, when Europe This is like Republican congressman is there taking credit for it and showing up and you know, there is just I’m telling you the people on the ground are not aware of the dynamic. They just think, oh, great. I love my congressman. Marjorie Taylor Green showed up for something she voted against, did like the ribbon cutting of a new I can’t remember what kind of building it was.

And so this is why. I mean, there’s an answer to your question. It’s not just a cry in the universe. Like, there are reasons that this happens. And then some of it’s just that the plain tribalism of it all, which is, you know this was something where we we I asked a couple different questions than I normally do because sort of PBS was interested, and they were, so I asked sort of straightforwardly, like, what do you think of Democrats?

And people were, like, pretty polite, you know, about the like, when you asked directly, you know, they’re, oh, well, you know, they they what they really feel is that Democrats are judging them. They don’t feel like they judge Democrats, etcetera. But I was I I sort of have the that, like, straight on question actually doesn’t feel particularly authentic to me because I I do think, like, they’ll always they’ll they’ll always talk that way. Right? They’re not gonna be like, Democrats are evil.

Especially when they know the cameras are on.

Yeah. I mean, that’s that’s probably it. Although, they were pretty candid for the cameras. But I I the the thing that you have to hear is them saying things like, Well, Democrat, like, no, they all believe the election was stolen. Right?

Democrats cheat at elections. Okay. Well, if you think that Democrats are the kind of people that steal elections. Like, you don’t think that well of them. Like, you think fine, you know, like, or you think fine of your so you might think okay of your neighbors in way, but like, you have this broad sense of Democrats, especially in other places who are deeply evil.

They certainly thought, you know, there’s a lot of Joe Biden is, like, his family is doing him a disservice, I this is there’s a lot of this too that it’s it’s unfair to Joe Biden what they’re doing to him, keeping him out there being potted around. And so, like, there’s no sense of Joe Biden doing things that improve their lives.

That’s amazing to me. Instead, they’re worried about like, cycling tours where there’s a like, I I mean, I’m

It’s a stand in. I think it’s a it’s a stand in for a culture they don’t understand that it’s changing in front of them. And I like

But not joining in their neighborhoods, Right? I mean, if you’re in Iowa, your neighborhood in Iowa was the same.

Nah. I mean, this is I’m not sure this that’s quite true. Right? I mean, I think that What things that’s weird about the transit? We we could do a whole episode on this, and we probably should.

Because I’ve been trying to think about exactly how I feel about this. I think that the renewed or not feel about this, but I but exactly how to understand it. The renewed focus on the trans issues has also brought kind of a renewed backlash against the gay stuff that was there and that people were kind of, I guess quietly tolerating as the culture shifted on them, but like a lot of these places there are pride parades now, or the target in their community is festooned and they’re like, that’s the reason you see so many of these, like, TikTok videos or whatever, of people going into Walmarts and Targets, you know, pulling out clothes that are rainbow themed or for gay families, like, that’s they’re like, well, these this is supposed to be our culture. These I don’t know.

They don’t want to buy it’s not enough for them to not buy. You shouldn’t be allowed to buy the rainbow t shirt you should not you you and you and Tim should not be allowed to buy the rainbow t shirts.

Yeah. And they do it’s it’s like weird things too, like, because they’ll sell them for kids. Right? But the kids ones are really It’s like what parents would put on kids if it was like, you know, I have two mommies or whatever, which is like the things that people buy for you for babies showers and whatnot if you’re gay parents. So but I also but I also, on another hand, sort of understand I always think that I think it’s always like a little over the top.

Right? First of all, I think I just said this. I did some HBO special where they asked a bunch of gay people about gay stuff and I was like, I think a week is fine. Like, I don’t know why Pride is a whole month. And also, I do find it, like, over the top of the way, like, suddenly your Uber, map, has a rainbow trail on the map, like and you do go into a Walmart or a Target and everything is festooned in rainbows, and there’s a part of it that I’m just like, I think, hey, maybe we’ve just like over corrected on this slightly.

In part, and one of the reasons is, and Jane Shelston Cooster. Thank you. No, Jane Coolston. Okay.

Those are the two chains I know.

I’m sorry. Yep. She made this point, and it’s an excellent point that, like, part of what happened is there was this over correction for financial reasons.

Right.

Like, suddenly, everyone started chasing the gay dollar, and, you know, it became very People kinda, like, overdid it, especially in some of these retail places where they yeah. They’re trying to court either, I don’t know, And and Jane was saying, like, there’s this pink washing effect that then so anyway, I think that that’s some of the backlash. That, like, the culture has changed. And I think it was one thing when for them, for this group of people to feel like they were tolerating this cultural change and, like, tolerating it fine. Like, okay.

Fine. Gay people are gonna get married. They’re gonna live together. Like, Say Lavee, people should live their own lives, versus every time I walk into the big box store in June, like, the whole thing looks like a rainbow vomited. And I just I I I can I just don’t I don’t agree with the premise that nothing’s changed?

I don’t think it’s, like, the backlash then is, like, well, we should. I think the backlash to that backlash is, like, ridiculous, and I think that there’s we’re, like, relitigating a lot of LGBT stuff now in general. And I think there’s a lot of people who hadn’t been talking about this, who are now talking, and it’s clear they had not changed their minds. I think we were all in a comfortable place, making a lot of people had changed their minds about things that they really haven’t. So anyway.

But all this is outside of, like, federal policy. That’s what I keep coming back only

with Why do you why do you think some average person is, like, litigating? What is state policy? What’s county policy? What’s federal policy?

Because because I think they’re not morons.

I think they’re at morons. You don’t you do think they’re morons.

No. I just if they can’t make these distinctions, then they are morons. Like, if you’re mad at target, then stop shopping at Target. Target is a private company, Target will do Target is just there to make money. If Target could make an extra five cents by killing your grandmother, they would do it.

If they can make extra five cents by putting a rainbow sticker on every piece of merchandise they sell, they would do that. That’s all Target doesn’t have any beliefs. Target is is is a company there to maximize profits. You none of us want to live in a world where the president of the United States can lean on target to either put out Rainbow merch or not put out Rainbow merch.

Sure.

Except that I think many Republican voters think they do wanna live in that world, but only when their guy gets to do it. Yeah. Right? And this is they they would like president DeSantis to make make targets stop doing that. And I I think if you think that you’re either a fascist or a moron.

Okay. So talk to me very quickly about North Sarah Longwell. I’m not saying North Carolina, New Hampshire.

Well, so there’s been two poles in as many days here that have come out that have shown a little Chris Christie boomlet in New Hampshire.

Oh, what’s he up to? Three percent. No. One point seven.

Do you want to guess? Do you want to guess what he is?

These are my guesses. Because he was at he was at less than one. Right?

So Christie’s at nine percent. What?

Hey, again. It’s JBL. The conversation goes on from there. If you wanna hear the rest of the show, head on over to Bulwark plus and subscribe. We’d love to have you.