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A Trump Comeback in 2024?

Happy New Year, you freaks.
December 31, 2021
Tim Miller's Not My Party: A Trump Comeback in 2024?

[Editor’s note: Watch Not My Party every week on Snapchat.]

Tim Miller: Happy New Year, you freaks. I feel like everyone was pretty down in 2021, but I don’t know. I thought there was a lot to like. The science smarties who brought us the miracle vaccines. We finally got infrastructure week. Olivia in the White House, and Orville Peck in Casper, Wyoming. The Giannis ‘oop to seal the title. A gay footballer in the NFL.

We can yassify ourselves now.

And best of all, we got to watch the sad, pathetic sore loser get shoveled off to his retirement home in Florida for good.

But did we?

You would think once we had finally exterminated the tangerine termite, that we would be able to move on to addressing other problems. Such as:

Why is this the warmest winter in . . . ever?

And shouldn’t we be concerned that the Chinese participated in a coverup of a deadly pandemic that started on their watch? And are now circling Taiwan like a bunch of vultures?

But it turns out, we can’t move on.

Even after a humiliating defeat, even after inspiring an assault on the Capitol, even after . . . I don’t need to list all the terrible stuff he does . . . this little pest will not die.

And worse than that, as things stand today, right now, New Year’s Eve 2021, the person in the world most likely to be president in January 2025 is Donald J. Trump.

Some of you might roll your eyes at that, but I’m dead serious. The prediction markets agree, and so do the bookies who allow you to gamble on stuff like this.

Here’s why they think that: Trump has said he plans to run again. And, you know, maybe the cheeseburgers will catch up with him, or he’ll decide he doesn’t wanna put in the work. But it’s hard to imagine the biggest egomaniac in world history sitting on the sidelines and watching all his fans flock to someone like Ron DeSantis. If he does run, the polls show he’ll be an overwhelming favor in the Republican primary.

And in the general election, he’d be running against an 81-year-old candidate in Joe Biden. Or another Democrat who hasn’t proven they have broad appeal with the electorate.

Put it all together, and I’m not predicting Trump will be president—but it’s much more likely than we should all be comfortable with.

And that y’all, is quite the fright. A Trump victory in 2024, or even a narrow defeat, would put the very existence of the world’s longest running democracy in threat. So to answer tonight’s big question, should our old orange acquaintance be forgot and never brought to mind?

My advice? Tonight enjoy yourself and celebrate 2021. Watch some football playoffs, put on that sparkly dress, drink some champagne, go out with your friends, and dance the night away.

But when you wake up, remember: that just because we got to be done with Trump, doesn’t mean that he’s done with us. And if we don’t want a rerun, it’s time for everyone to start taking this threat real seriously.

See you next week—next year!—for more Not My Party. Cheers.

[Editor’s note: Watch Not My Party every week on Snapchat.]

Tim Miller

Tim Miller is The Bulwark’s writer-at-large. He was previously political director for Republican Voters Against Trump, communications director for Jeb Bush 2016, and spokesman for the Republican National Committee.