Trump has faked being a businessman all his life, covered initially by his father’s money, then by the can’t-lose property market. He faked it in a fake book written by someone else and then faked it on TV. And now he’s got an odd narcissistic craving to fake being a peacemaker, so he’s come up with a fake peace deal for Ukraine that someone else - the Russians - have written for him, and he’s too lazy to make it in any way fair, so it’s just what Putin wants. Pathetic. He’s a traitor to all of democracy.
I have been reading Philips O'Brien and generally agree with him on most things, particularly our shared disdain on pundits who grab onto whatever crumbs Trump throws out there. That said, I appreciate Cathy staying calm and analytical. I just hope Europe will stiffen their spines. I am being simplistic but Ukraine can easily be today's Sudetenland.
This is DOA in Kyiv. They will never accept this. If they need to, they will go alone. The have no other choice. To surrender to Putin means the end of Ukraine. Putin has promised it.
^ remember this is what serious world leaders do. The real conversation about this war is happening in the UN right now, not on Truth Social/Xwitter. It’s devastating to see that one of those speakers is unlike the others– and he’s speaking for the American people. Let that sink in.
Update 5:15pm EST: it just ended so watch the replay. Since the first post there have been at least 10 mentions of Trump and other cabinet members social media posts as evidence against how ridiculous it is to normalize chaos, and have world leaders wait for the next tweet so they can figure out what to do with this war.
Update 5:25pm: Oh my God there is an actual fire. Wasn’t me, I’m in Texas.
Actually it's not nearly as bad as you described. I watched the Security Council meeting. The US representative calling for a ceasefire and he threatened Russia with more sanctions if they keep attacking, and he stated the US will continue to provide weapons purchased for Ukraine by the EU. He also demanded that the stolen Ukrainian children be returned home.
The internal contradictions are par for the course now, but I’d put more weight on the part about the United States providing “generous terms for Russia, including sanctions relief”. Then he went into the part where I grab the world’s smallest violin: “Ukraine's counterattacks in turn have hit Russia's energy sector and other critical infrastructure, further constraining Russia's ability to fuel its war economy. And Russia has now suffered more than a million casualties. It has endured severe international sanctions.” His remarks about this unprovoked invasion contained no mention of Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, or right to self-defense.
Out of curiosity and disbelief, I had multiple models analyze the transcript and the consensus is “surprisingly conciliatory” toward Russia, “treating Russia as a legitimate negotiating partner instead of an aggressor”. Sounds like their usual “framework of a plan” nonsense but to bribe, not punish. And he wants the rest of the world to get on board with that, but also increase their sanctions? And buy our weapons to use in a war we’re prolonging… there were no major American concessions because we’re profiting. As to Ukraine, the analysis is “notably more complicated and contained implicit pressure” to accommodate Russian asks, even giving them some territory they don’t occupy now. Like whole cities are party favors for Trump to hand out. Russia needs to go home empty handed.
Cathy, Thanks for the reporting. I thought Trump's new strategy was to ignore Ukraine and maybe it will just go away. If he wants to fiddle around with peace plans, why doesn't he come up with one for America?
The one thing cited in Cathy Young's excellent piece that argues against some collaboration between Russia and the US is the cratering energy sales. The rest is plausible, though as usual uncertain. One of the frustrating things about the war is the way Trump's administration flip flops and Europe dithers. Support for Ukraine seems continuously conditional. It comes and then it slows or is "held up". . .Biden's administration wasn't much better. Russia simply cannot be trusted in anything at all. Having "peace plans" with the regime is meaningless, In a reverse of Clausewitz, to Russia negotiations and agreements are the continuation of war by other means. The failure of the west generally to honour the Budapest memorandum, despite whatever corruption may exist in Ukraine, is a bitter fruit force-fed daily to the Ukrainian people.
Is the Surrender Plan real or fictional? I ask, What?
Why is the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, LtGen Kellog USA (Ret.), who has announced his resignation (effective 01/2026), in Kiev with US Army Secretary Driscoll, who has reportedly given Ukrainian President Zelenskiy a copy of the Surrender Plan (https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-donbas)?
It's important to note, of course, that Zelenskiy himself has not been charged with the most recent corruption scandals within his government, at any level, but they tar him politically.
I posit that the corruption schemes and acts alleged by U.S. government leaders and friends of our Felonious Oath-Breaker, as well as those involving himself, are far worse than those in Ukraine. There's no persuasive argument justifying corruption at any time, anywhere.
This push for Ukraine to surrender to Russia, as this U.S.-backed "Plan" does, is a corruption of our historical support of freedom and democracy in the world.
It is yet another abrogation of our principles equal to the moves by the Project 2025 fascists for massive deportations, unconstitutional tariffs, and political prosecutions of U.S. citizens.
The official support of this Surrender Plan should result in impeachment and conviction.
In other words, Que Hay Nueva Todavia (Poor translation what else is new). However good timing for a summary of what's been going on recently outside America First Land
Several forces are at work here and lead to the cloudy picture Young outlines above. Add to all the moving pieces, Trumps increasingly obvious dementia and you have the current situation. Even in his current state, he seem to still fear and be succeptable to the Kompromat the Krimlin and possibly Netanyahu have on him. I wonder what would happen if other parties had and threatened to use Kompromat? Would it help to even the playing field?
Russia is about to collapse. Whether that's a week or year, it can't sustain the war. Ukriane is getting stronger and can sustain the war. The West must combine forces with Ukraine to fight Russia's modern drone army. Better hope Ukraine wins because Russia can take Europe as of today.
Russia’s about to collapse but could also take Europe? Not sure that those two assertions are consistent.
The first may be true, although historically Russia is always on the point of collapse, yet always somehow manages to stagger on in one form or another. However taking Europe (the whole continent?) is just nonsense. Yeah, we need to rearm and Germany probably needs some nukes, but Russia’s performance in Ukraine and what it shows about the way their military budget has been misappropriated over the past 25 years suggests that Russia’s chances of conquering Europe are essentially zero. I’m not sure they could even take the Baltics at this point.
There are only two modern militaries in the world today, Russia and Ukraine, because they are fighting with drones. Europe could not stand up to Russia because their military power is irrelevant when faced with drone warfare. They would not be able to absorb the losses and would surrender. Remember 1939/40? The US is a Russian puppet so don't expect any better.
I love treating war as a real estate transaction! Having worked with Business Development organizations, the last thing a BD director like Witkoff wants is to tell the boss it can’t be done…..because they’d be fired. Or worse, if the company realizes that it’s not a good business, the department gets shut down completely.
Someone has someone else by the cajones ...
Trump has faked being a businessman all his life, covered initially by his father’s money, then by the can’t-lose property market. He faked it in a fake book written by someone else and then faked it on TV. And now he’s got an odd narcissistic craving to fake being a peacemaker, so he’s come up with a fake peace deal for Ukraine that someone else - the Russians - have written for him, and he’s too lazy to make it in any way fair, so it’s just what Putin wants. Pathetic. He’s a traitor to all of democracy.
Trump is a Russian fool tool.
Thank you for your coverage on the Ukraine war Cathy! I’m glad the Bulwark is adding this reporting to the publication.
I have been reading Philips O'Brien and generally agree with him on most things, particularly our shared disdain on pundits who grab onto whatever crumbs Trump throws out there. That said, I appreciate Cathy staying calm and analytical. I just hope Europe will stiffen their spines. I am being simplistic but Ukraine can easily be today's Sudetenland.
Thanks for the clarifications, Cathy. Your reporting always shines a light into areas that the enemies of Ukraine do their best to keep dark.
This is DOA in Kyiv. They will never accept this. If they need to, they will go alone. The have no other choice. To surrender to Putin means the end of Ukraine. Putin has promised it.
🔥This is NOT A DRILL:
please everyone what Mike Waltz just said at the UN about 30 minutes ago. The short version:
“The war has been devastating for Russia because [all the ways they’ve suffered] and Ukraine needs to stop their attacks now.”
… Among other things. It was unbelievable, and I’m afraid it won’t get enough attention to matter. It was nuclear. And I hope it starts a fire.
https://www.youtube.com/live/vYRfQo6JMxc?si=fzSdzDskC4PzIqPi
^ remember this is what serious world leaders do. The real conversation about this war is happening in the UN right now, not on Truth Social/Xwitter. It’s devastating to see that one of those speakers is unlike the others– and he’s speaking for the American people. Let that sink in.
Update 5:15pm EST: it just ended so watch the replay. Since the first post there have been at least 10 mentions of Trump and other cabinet members social media posts as evidence against how ridiculous it is to normalize chaos, and have world leaders wait for the next tweet so they can figure out what to do with this war.
Update 5:25pm: Oh my God there is an actual fire. Wasn’t me, I’m in Texas.
Actually it's not nearly as bad as you described. I watched the Security Council meeting. The US representative calling for a ceasefire and he threatened Russia with more sanctions if they keep attacking, and he stated the US will continue to provide weapons purchased for Ukraine by the EU. He also demanded that the stolen Ukrainian children be returned home.
No major concessions were made by the US.
The internal contradictions are par for the course now, but I’d put more weight on the part about the United States providing “generous terms for Russia, including sanctions relief”. Then he went into the part where I grab the world’s smallest violin: “Ukraine's counterattacks in turn have hit Russia's energy sector and other critical infrastructure, further constraining Russia's ability to fuel its war economy. And Russia has now suffered more than a million casualties. It has endured severe international sanctions.” His remarks about this unprovoked invasion contained no mention of Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, or right to self-defense.
Out of curiosity and disbelief, I had multiple models analyze the transcript and the consensus is “surprisingly conciliatory” toward Russia, “treating Russia as a legitimate negotiating partner instead of an aggressor”. Sounds like their usual “framework of a plan” nonsense but to bribe, not punish. And he wants the rest of the world to get on board with that, but also increase their sanctions? And buy our weapons to use in a war we’re prolonging… there were no major American concessions because we’re profiting. As to Ukraine, the analysis is “notably more complicated and contained implicit pressure” to accommodate Russian asks, even giving them some territory they don’t occupy now. Like whole cities are party favors for Trump to hand out. Russia needs to go home empty handed.
Cathy, Thanks for the reporting. I thought Trump's new strategy was to ignore Ukraine and maybe it will just go away. If he wants to fiddle around with peace plans, why doesn't he come up with one for America?
The one thing cited in Cathy Young's excellent piece that argues against some collaboration between Russia and the US is the cratering energy sales. The rest is plausible, though as usual uncertain. One of the frustrating things about the war is the way Trump's administration flip flops and Europe dithers. Support for Ukraine seems continuously conditional. It comes and then it slows or is "held up". . .Biden's administration wasn't much better. Russia simply cannot be trusted in anything at all. Having "peace plans" with the regime is meaningless, In a reverse of Clausewitz, to Russia negotiations and agreements are the continuation of war by other means. The failure of the west generally to honour the Budapest memorandum, despite whatever corruption may exist in Ukraine, is a bitter fruit force-fed daily to the Ukrainian people.
Is the Surrender Plan real or fictional? I ask, What?
Why is the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, LtGen Kellog USA (Ret.), who has announced his resignation (effective 01/2026), in Kiev with US Army Secretary Driscoll, who has reportedly given Ukrainian President Zelenskiy a copy of the Surrender Plan (https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-donbas)?
It's important to note, of course, that Zelenskiy himself has not been charged with the most recent corruption scandals within his government, at any level, but they tar him politically.
I posit that the corruption schemes and acts alleged by U.S. government leaders and friends of our Felonious Oath-Breaker, as well as those involving himself, are far worse than those in Ukraine. There's no persuasive argument justifying corruption at any time, anywhere.
This push for Ukraine to surrender to Russia, as this U.S.-backed "Plan" does, is a corruption of our historical support of freedom and democracy in the world.
It is yet another abrogation of our principles equal to the moves by the Project 2025 fascists for massive deportations, unconstitutional tariffs, and political prosecutions of U.S. citizens.
The official support of this Surrender Plan should result in impeachment and conviction.
In other words, Que Hay Nueva Todavia (Poor translation what else is new). However good timing for a summary of what's been going on recently outside America First Land
Several forces are at work here and lead to the cloudy picture Young outlines above. Add to all the moving pieces, Trumps increasingly obvious dementia and you have the current situation. Even in his current state, he seem to still fear and be succeptable to the Kompromat the Krimlin and possibly Netanyahu have on him. I wonder what would happen if other parties had and threatened to use Kompromat? Would it help to even the playing field?
As always.
Russia is about to collapse. Whether that's a week or year, it can't sustain the war. Ukriane is getting stronger and can sustain the war. The West must combine forces with Ukraine to fight Russia's modern drone army. Better hope Ukraine wins because Russia can take Europe as of today.
Russia’s about to collapse but could also take Europe? Not sure that those two assertions are consistent.
The first may be true, although historically Russia is always on the point of collapse, yet always somehow manages to stagger on in one form or another. However taking Europe (the whole continent?) is just nonsense. Yeah, we need to rearm and Germany probably needs some nukes, but Russia’s performance in Ukraine and what it shows about the way their military budget has been misappropriated over the past 25 years suggests that Russia’s chances of conquering Europe are essentially zero. I’m not sure they could even take the Baltics at this point.
There are only two modern militaries in the world today, Russia and Ukraine, because they are fighting with drones. Europe could not stand up to Russia because their military power is irrelevant when faced with drone warfare. They would not be able to absorb the losses and would surrender. Remember 1939/40? The US is a Russian puppet so don't expect any better.
I love treating war as a real estate transaction! Having worked with Business Development organizations, the last thing a BD director like Witkoff wants is to tell the boss it can’t be done…..because they’d be fired. Or worse, if the company realizes that it’s not a good business, the department gets shut down completely.