Bright Spots in a Bleak February
Nine stories to counter the vibes of the doomiest, gloomiest month.
THIS LAST MONTH WAS HISTORIC, in a bad way. The United States left the free world waiting and in doubt about the future of Ukraine, because the Republican partyās once unshakable commitment to liberty has been overtaken by its commitment to Donald Trump.
The former and potentially future American president invited Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to attack NATO nations, and continued ordering his own party to oppose the defense of the sovereign nation Putin invaded two years ago.
Days later, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny diedāpossibly murdered upon Putinās orders, certainly a victim of unjust and brutal imprisonment. Meanwhile, as world leaders gathering at the Munich Security Conference agonized over whether the United States would abandon Ukraine, the Russians captured the city of Avdiivka and Republicans in the House of Representatives refused to bring the long-delayed funding bill up for consideration, let alone passage. Trump, of course, compared himself to Navalny but has refused to criticize Putin for having him killed.
This followed Trump and Republicans killing off a package of bipartisan border fixes, paired with Ukraine aid, because it would have helped Ukraine, the border, and President Joe Bidenās political standing.
But scattered here and there amid all the terrible news of this month there were bits of good news. Hereās a quick tour of nine things to be thankful for as February comes to a close.
1. Sweden joins NATO.
Hungarian President Viktor OrbƔn, a MAGA favorite and Putin pal, relented after nearly two years, consenting to vote Sweden into the alliance. Finally, a bad day for Putin.
2. Congress can still pass Ukraine aid.
A few brave Republicans, led by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, may yet succeed in getting Ukraine funding to the House floor. Fitzpatrick, who just returned from Ukraine, is asking House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring up his bipartisan, scaled-back security aid bill that also includes border policy. āWeāll find a way to get this to the floor,ā he said on CNN late last week, āmark my words.ā
A new Pew Research survey of American adults shows that 74 percent believe the war is important to our national interest. So itās all hands on deck to encourage every last House Republican who quietly supports defending Ukraine to step up now and sign a discharge petition, circumventing their partyās leadership, and doing whatever it takes, as Adam Kinzinger noted.
If Johnson secretly wants Ukraine aid to pass, while he publicly opposes it to please Trump, he will not stop the bipartisan effort to get a vote. And from what he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyāthat appears to be the outcome Johnson intends.
In an interview with CNN this week, Zelensky said Johnson assured him Congress would approve it. āWhen we spoke to each other, he said that he will do everything to support Ukraine, and heās on our side,ā Zelensky said, adding, āhe said he will do it.ā
This is great newsādonāt be a liar, Mike.
3. Whither impeachment?
Speaking of Russians, the indictment of Alexander Smirnov, former FBI informant working as a double agent and snookering House Republicans, has likely tanked any prospect of impeaching Biden. Trump wants his own impeachments expunged and has demanded a Biden impeachment. House Republicans, who had yet to produce evidence linking Biden to a high crime or misdemeanor, were certain Smirnov was going to provide it. Sad!
4. The GOP is now allied with Putin.
If Ukraine aid is forced to the floor and approved, it will be in defiance of Trump. After denigrating NATO since 2016, furthering Putinās goal, Trump has now given Russians the green light with NATO nationsāāto do whatever the hell they wantā to any European nation that hasnāt spent 2 percent on its defense.
The death of Navalny, no surprise, didnāt move MAGAāMarjorie Taylor Greene isnāt sure it was Putinās fault. When pressed on the subject, Greene said, āI really could care less,ā adding āI am honestly not interested in that discussion.ā
Bill Kristol recently wrote in Morning Shots that Democrats must spotlight this alliance: āThe likely nominee of one of our two major political parties is pro-Vladimir Putin. This is an astonishing fact. It is an appalling fact. It has to be a central fact of the 2024 campaign.ā
From Smirnov to Ukraine aid, itās clear congressional Republicansāwittingly, or unwittinglyāare working for both Trump and Putin now. And Kristol is correct, that support for Putin will be a problem for Trump and the GOP with swing voters. āThose who seek to save the country from a Trump second term can and should hammer home Trumpās fondness for Putin.ā
Trumpās a Putin fanboy, pass it on.
5. Trump is hurting for dough.
Trumpās personal finances are buried under half a billion dollars in court judgments, one of which accrues $112,000 of interest per day, and if he thought his $50 million in legal bills were bad in 2023, just wait for 2024.
The Republican party is struggling to close a funding gap with the Democrats. While 91 criminal charges were initially great for Trumpās war chest, grassroots energy is dipping, according to the receipts. Trumpās campaign is collecting 62.5 percent fewer small dollar donationsāthose less than $200āthan he did four years ago, according to CNBC. He also started 2024 with 224,000 fewer donors than they did in 2020.
Biden raised $42 million in January, and has more at this point in the cycle than any Democratic candidate ever. His campaign has $56 million, compared to Trumpās $30.5 million, and the Democratic National Committee had nearly three times the cash the Republican National Committee did at the end of January.
Read Marc Caputoās latest MAGAville to learn how, for Trump, āthe numbers right now arenāt good.ā
6. Trump is vulnerable with Republicans and independents.
Nikki Haleyās determination to contest primary elections she knows she will lose has shown a consequential fissure in the party that could lead to Trumpās defeat in November. In her first two one-on-one contests with Trump, in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Haley has swept with independent voters and won a quarter or better of Republicans who believe Trump lost in 2020.
According to AP VoteCast, slightly more than 1 in 5 Republican primary voters said they will not vote for Trump in the general election if he is nominated.
Another data pointāTrump also underperformed his polling for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
7. Wisconsin ends one of the worst gerrymanders in the nation.
New, fairer maps made it through the stateās GOP-controlled legislature and were signed into law by Gov. Tony Evers. This is huge progress toward the goal of making districts more representative, making elections more competitive, and making every vote matter. This also gives Democrats a shot at winning majorities in the state assembly and senate.
8. The IVF debate is a heavy cudgel the GOP canāt wish away.
No matter how many Republicans join the newly converted, or loudly champion IVF, the Alabama Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos are children puts Republican extremism, way beyond abortion, in stark relief. This issue is far more tangible, easy to understand, and widespread than other complicated threats arising in post-Roe America, like women with ectopic pregnancies being refused treatment by doctors afraid of being sued. Too many Americans have themselves used, or know someone who has used, IVF to have children. It is also vital to cancer patients whose fertility might be put at risk from chemotherapy treatments.
Democrats can highlight this issue in powerful, compelling ways. They can start by citing this case, and running ads warning that frozen eggs or embryos may no longer be safe in any red state.
Gavin Newsom knows this. The California governor is investing leftover funds from the recall campaign against him to run ads in red states highlighting our new reality.
9. Trump is going through some things.
The political press has paid an abundance of attention to Bidenās quiet voice, long pauses, and stiff gait. But Trump has been kicking the crazy into high gear, just in time for the general election, so there is lots of great video and audio piling up. Agreeing that Biden should be president, confusing Haley and Nancy Pelosi, calling his own wife by the wrong name, and spending a lot of time talking incoherently about water in appliances. Want to know who is making good use of these ramblings? The Biden/Harris campaign.
Many Americans appreciate the danger of Putin, want freedom for Ukraine and for families struggling with fertility, and oppose extremism and lies. Trump is weaker than he appears in polling, and his wallet is about to take a punch. There is light in this dark tunnel.
