Everyone Is Asking the Wrong Question About Iran
Emergency Triad: There are three important questions that can be answered right now. Not one of them is about “should.”
Over the last 48 hours most discussion has focused on whether or not America should have attacked Iran.
This is the wrong question because
that decision is ultimately a judgment call, with no objective answer; and
the net outcome of the U.S. attack cannot be known on a near time horizon.
At some point we will know enough to make a reasonable judgment weighing the cost/benefit of this strike. That point is weeks—or months, or maybe even years—in the future.1
Instead, we should be focusing on three knowable questions that can be answered—objectively—right now.
1. Does Iran still possess a nuclear program?
On June 21, President Trump said that the U.S. military had struck the nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Esfahan. He claimed that, “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
On June 22, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth agreed with the president’s claim: “Many presidents have dreamed of delivering the final blow to Iran’s nuclear program, and none could, until President Trump.”
Immediately after Hegseth spoke, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, contradicted both the president and secretary.
“Final battle damage will take some time, but initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction,” Caine said.
A reporter then asked Gen. Caine: “You said the battle damage assessment is still ongoing, but do you believe that some nuclear capability in Iran remains?
Caine’s response: “I think BDA is still pending, and it would be way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there.”
So the president and secretary of defense say that Iran’s facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” and that Iran’s nuclear program has been “dealt the final blow.”
But the chairman of the Joint Chiefs says that it is much too early to give any sort of accurate assessment of the damage done.
Either the general is lying to the American public or the president and his secretary of defense are lying to them.
Which is it?
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