Fallout

Trump lied. Iran’s nuclear program wasn’t “completely and totally obliterated” So now what?

Maxar satellite imagery provides a second close-up view of the Isfahan nuclear facility showing severe damage after the airstrikes. Multiple buildings are visibly damaged or destroyed. (Satellite image (c) 2025 Maxar Technologies. GettyImages)

1. True Lies

As of this morning we have credible reports that the president and secretary of defense lied to the American people over the weekend. The Iranian nuclear program was neither “completely and totally obliterated” or dealt a “final blow” by the American strike.

Instead, the mission seems to have been a tactical success with limited strategic value.

“Limited” does not mean “no strategic value.” If it turns out that Operation Midnight Hammer set the Iranian nuclear program back by a year or three and there is no significant blowback, then it will still be a success.

But that’s not the only possible outcome. So let’s walk through some of the other, less nice, possibilities.