Mike Johnson, Welcome to the Thunderdome.

The Speaker is on thin ice. And it’s not even day one.

Photo by RICHARD PIERRIN/AFP via Getty Images

With the 119th Congress set to convene for the first time tomorrow, Mike Johnson finds himself with very little room for error as he attempts to remain speaker of the House. He may seem to be in much better shape than his predecessor, the ousted Kevin McCarthy, but the truth is that Johnson will face serious challenges on his way to getting the votes to lead the chamber.

The day will start like this:

• At 11:00 a.m., the 118th Congress will formally end.

• At noon, representatives will gather to elect a speaker. A majority, not a plurality, is required to win the gavel.

• After that, members will be sworn in en masse.

• Finally, a formal rules package will be adopted, requiring a majority. This vote typically reflects the final speaker vote.

Seems simple, right? Not a chance.

As things stand heading into Friday, the House majority will be 219 Republicans, who will sit across from a 215-Democrat minority. That means the magic number for Johnson remains 218, if all 434 members of Congress are in attendance. (Why 434 instead of a full set of 435 representatives? Because Florida’s 1st District will not have a member to be seated, as the individual who won that seat has given up the role for a job at One America News; he is also battling allegations of violating Florida’s statutory rape law.)