Swing Voters Are Still Mad at Republicans About Abortion
In tight elections, that might make all the difference.
AMID ALL THE TALK OF INFLATION, war, and artificial intelligence, people are underestimating just how important abortion could still be to this fall’s elections.
That seems like an insane sentence to type because, after all, abortion proved decisive in 2022, when Democrats dramatically overperformed expectations. The consensus quickly formed that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade was the key contributor.
But when the Democratic party put a heavy emphasis on abortion in the 2024 elections, it didn’t pan out. That’s because voters were more motivated by economic issues. Fights around abortion moved to the states—where Republican controlled legislatures were passing sweeping bans—and receded from the federal level.
Today, Dems may have over-learned the lesson of 2024.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard voters—even swing voters and conservatives—say some version of “I’m pro-life, but I believe in a woman’s right to choose.” Translation: Voters can be personally uncomfortable with abortion and still believe that the state-level bans are a bridge too far.
In recent focus groups I’ve conducted, abortion still pops up as an issue. That’s especially true in states with very restrictive abortion bans—including some that have key Senate and gubernatorial races this year, like