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Craig Butcher's avatar

From about the time that the Republicans took over congress under Gingrich— that was when I first realize that the only thing preventing a sufficiently ruthless would be autocrat from attempting to seize control of the state is his own calculation of whether he can get away with it— his beliefs about the limit on what the rest of the world would tolerate and accommodate. Gingrich’s and his cohort’s outrages against comity and decency were a shock to me— it was like going into a bar where you had always been a regular and suddenly realizing that the old clientele had joined a motorcycle gang, and were clearly contemplating robbing and stomping you. After award of the 2000 election to the Republican by a politically motivated Supreme court, I was pretty convinced that the restraining beliefs about what would be tolerated were substantially illusion, and wondered how long it would take for the spell to break down utterly. I did think it might take the rest of my lifetime… Obviously I was far too optimistic.

The founders knew this; they were counting on an equipoise of interests to create ad sustain the illusion. I don't think any of the smartest of them (Adams, Madison, Hamilton) really had any confidence the thing would persist forever. It’s over now— Viz “Plan F”.

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H in SC's avatar

"But then Trump showed them what was possible. Trump demonstrated that the Constitution was run the honor system and that the strictures of liberalism were brittle. Trump showed these people that they could have the politics they wanted"

1,000%. These people have been around my entire 40 years on Earth, but they were low propensity voters. Trump drew them out of the fringes. My experience growing up in the rural South was that there were two distinct groups of rural folks : the traditional people who really do want to keep to themselves and the militant nationalists / proto Fascists / Primativists (in their mind) types. Again, I saw this 40 years ago. Even my Evangelical parents saw these folks as crazy and warned me not to associate with them. They never voted with the exception of maybe a Ross Perot, Pat Buchannon, etc. Trump brought them out, and while in a state like SC you don't really notice, in a state like Wisconsin it becomes much more evident. They've been aggrieved my entire life, long before Trump, long before globalization, long before social media, etc. These are the "burn it all down folks", and there are enough of them in the right places to make a significant impact. This explains the Bernie Sanders primary to Donald Trump general election voters. It also explains the Obama-Obama-Clinton-Trump voters (primarily Latinos), who aren't really ideological so much as aggrieved. Don't believe the argument on the left that these people would have still made waves had Clinton been elected. I can promise you they would have retreated to the fringes once again, but that horse is out of the barn so it doesn't matter now.

The worst part...absolute worst part...is the tacit, unwritten agreement between the traditional folks and the militants. It's disgusting. It has started to wane, significantly, but here's the problem - they're not going to vote for a Democrat. Even if by chance they can't stomach a vote for Trump in 2024, hypothetically, they'll just leave that part blank and vote straight ticket Republican down ballot for all of Trump's surrogates. The same people who for decades complained about minorities voting in blocs are now the most myopic, bloc-voting sons of bitches. Why not just stay home then? It's all about the Democrats destroying America (interpret that however you'd like). Some of the most Conservative people I know are even second-guessing the overturning of Roe!! WTF? It's a prime example of dog catching car. Their biggest concern is now we're going to have millions of new people on the government dole. No $hit, Sherlock!

My argument to everyone is vote for Democrats, and if their policies become too Progressive for your liking then vote them out in two years. Voting for a Democrat over a crazy Republican will likely lead the party to then nominate a more normal person the next time. If you're just going to blindly vote for a candidate based on party, either party, then please just stay home.

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