The Incredible Shrinking Ron DeSantis

Plus: The GOP’s struggle in keeping up its attacks on Joe Biden.

[Editor’s note: Watch Not My Party every week on Snapchat.]

Tim Miller: DeSantis is freefalling to the dumps while Biden is feeling the bump.

Jon Favreau: Is an 80-year-old president who rips lines at Rehoboth in a five-inch inseam bathing suit and aviators—is that the kind of leader we need right now?

Jon Lovett: It’s the kind of boyfriend I need right now.

Miller: This is “Not My Party,” brought to you by The Bulwark.

Miller: Hey y’all. In politics, sometimes things can be exposed that you didn’t expect. Right Steven?

Sam Seder: Crowder habitually exposed himself to other male staffers.

Jon Flint (Héctor Elizondo in Beverly Hills Cop III): Why am I not surprised?

Miller: For DeSantis stans, their candidate’s campaign skill has been a similarly unexpected, unpleasant reveal.

Jackson Dragon (John Owen Lowe on Unstable): He’s not doing great.

Miller: The last time I broke out the Not My Party Meter—just three months ago!—we gave DeSantis a 20 percent chance to be the next president. Today he barely has a 20 percent chance to be the Republican nominee. What happened?

Elizabeth McCord (Téa Leoni on Madam Secretary): Couple of things actually.

Miller: First, Trump’s indictment rallied GOP voters to their man’s defense, rather than inspiring the realization that it would be actually insane to nominate a criminal for president.

Kinsey Locke (Emilia Jones on Locke & Key): I guess the bar’s even lower than I thought.

Miller: And now DeSantis is echoing Trump’s own talking points about how his opponent really is a martyr.

Homer Simpson (from The Simpsons): But not in a sacrilegious way.

Miller: Next, he’s undermined his best argument—that he’s more electable than Trump—in two ways. One, by deciding to run to Trump’s right on cultural issues, arguing that the former president is too nice to LGBT people. That’s not exactly a winner in the suburbs.

Pepper Brooks (Jason Bateman in Dodgeball): That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for him.

Joshua Burgin (Tate Donovan on Friends): I’m thinking no.

Miller: Second, he’s revealed himself to have a rather weird personality?

Peter Griffin (from Family Guy): That’s unfortunate.

Miller: When it comes to DeSantis acting strange, I regret to inform you that the orange-angutan has made a rare good point.

Donald Trump: Changing his name in the middle of the campaign to DEE-Sanctis, it just doesn’t work. Never change your name in the middle of a campaign.

Ron DeSantis (multiple clips): Ron DEE-Santis. . . . I’m Ron DUH-Santis. . . . I’m Ron DEE-Santis. . . .

Casey DeSantis: This is my husband, Ron DUH-Santis.

Ron DeSantis: I am Ron DEE-Santis.

Whip Whitaker (Denzel Washington in Flight): Make up your mind.!

Miller: So who knows, maybe the next three months will be better for DEE-Sanctis than the last three. But for now, he’s going the wrong direction.

Mr. Zelner (Steve Ireland on Friends): Not good, Ron.

Miller: So as DeSantis falls, has 2023 brought positive trends for the man who would be his general election opponent? It’s certainly true that Biden’s favorability numbers remain low, but in my view, this largely reflects concerns about his age—something the White House recently tried to address by shortening the stairs on Air Force One.

Saxon Master (John Simm on Doctor Who): There you go, gramps.

Miller: But there are a series of other indicators trending Biden’s direction. Axios called it the “GOP’s crumbling case against Biden.” On crime, immigration, and inflation, the three issues Republicans have attacked Democrats on most aggressively during the Biden years, things are looking up.

Sandy Cheeks (from SpongeBob SquarePants): Can’t argue with those results.

Gina Dabrowski (Annaleigh Ashford in B Positive): But he is old.

Miller: Violent crime rates are declining, with a 10 percent drop in homicides in 2023. Both illegal border crossings and inflation rates have reached their lowest point in two years. And—fingers crossed—but it appears we might be avoiding the post-COVID recession everyone was warning about.

Bruno Madrigal (from Encanto): Knock, knock, knock, knock, knock on wood.

Miller: Look, I get you can always get ahead of yourself with these kinds of predictions. The last time I predicted “hot Joe summer,” the president’s polls tanked that very month thanks to Afghanistan and a spike in COVID.

Playground dad (Anthony Anderson in The Back-Up Plan): Double whammy.

Miller: But as of right now, if you had to choose whose shoes you’d rather be in—Biden’s sneakers or DEE-Sanctis’s wellies—I’ve got to say, not a close call. We’ll see you next week for more Not My Party.