On another site I made the prediction that Russia will have essentially abandoned Crimea and Kherson by the end of July. No need for actual Ukrainian soldiers to be put at risk, just Russian logistics being so destroyed that they cannot remain. With Zaporizhia to follow in August for the same reason (I know, I know, "Put down the hopium pipe, dude!)
Ukraine is a few drone swarms shy of ending ALL fuel production in western Russia. This weeks footage and reporting of average Russians desperate attempts to find fuel will be as nothing compared to NEXT weeks footage of average Russians attempt to find fuel. The Creator/Director of the 'Mad Max' franchise may well put out a statement next week that even HE never envisioned such citizen on citizen violence. Things are going to get very ugly in Russia very soon. The collapse has been going slowly since the invasion. I think, now, Russia is at the 'all at once' point (shout out to Hemingway!).
So. Putin has broken his contract with the Russian people. Utterly. They are being rudely woken up to the fact that theirs is a nation in collapse, that they will no longer be permitted nice things. Putin is finished. May be a month, may be three, but Russia will be in some kind of unique 2026 Russian populace revolt by October. Huh? Why does that feel familiar?
Thank you, Ms. Young. Given your background and experience, I always appreciate the insights found in your essays.
Adding to the chorus, thank you for this thorough and honest assessment, it seems to me. It's hard to find reliable information about the Ukraine/Russia axis I feel I can trust, so I really appreciate your in-depth journalism.
I have to believe the Chinese have noted Russia's inability to subdue a country with 1/3 of the Russian population. There will not be much anyone can do if China decides to support an independence movement in Russia's eastern provinces.
Had the Democrats been successful in the election this war would have been over months ago.I am angry at Trump and the GOP but I am also mad at the European countries for not realizing the danger to themselves and getting dully behind the Ukraine. We will all get behind them with a New Democrat in the White House and get this war ended by pushing Putin out of Ukraine. Ukraine should join Nato and the EU. The U.S. will have to rebuild from voting to the military.
Europe at large now knows they must provide for joint security without the US, something of which they were not full aware until after Jan 20, 2025. At this point US support would be welcome but not necessary. With European support Ukraine has become a cutting edge military power through its drone development. As a US citizen I envy Ukraine’s ability to develop cheap effective weapons versus our reliance on huge (bloated) expensive platforms.
Agree. Germany got entangled in buying Russian gas (Nordstream Pipeline) and a few smaller countries are openly pro-Putin (notably Hungary, although not anymore.
If only there was a country with a history, dedication and liberal democratic government that could insert itself in help to finding an end to this war. Of course it would have to have the most impressive military in history, geopolitical expertise, and recognize its own interest in the conduct and outcome of this war.
I am pretty sure there is no one else in American journalism besides Cathy Young who continuously gives us this complete, detailed and deep info about what is happening with the Ukraine war and with Russia in general. You are a treasure, Cathy, and the Bulwark is lucky to have you.
Very good ‘sitrep’, Cathy. You are following this as closely as it should be followed by anyone with a sense of what is important in the world stage.
I found it very interesting that Lukashenko went to meet with Xi after that strange encounter with Putin in Valdai. We will probably be able to make some educated guesses by the time you write your next article!
Wow. Superb column, thx.
On another site I made the prediction that Russia will have essentially abandoned Crimea and Kherson by the end of July. No need for actual Ukrainian soldiers to be put at risk, just Russian logistics being so destroyed that they cannot remain. With Zaporizhia to follow in August for the same reason (I know, I know, "Put down the hopium pipe, dude!)
Ukraine is a few drone swarms shy of ending ALL fuel production in western Russia. This weeks footage and reporting of average Russians desperate attempts to find fuel will be as nothing compared to NEXT weeks footage of average Russians attempt to find fuel. The Creator/Director of the 'Mad Max' franchise may well put out a statement next week that even HE never envisioned such citizen on citizen violence. Things are going to get very ugly in Russia very soon. The collapse has been going slowly since the invasion. I think, now, Russia is at the 'all at once' point (shout out to Hemingway!).
So. Putin has broken his contract with the Russian people. Utterly. They are being rudely woken up to the fact that theirs is a nation in collapse, that they will no longer be permitted nice things. Putin is finished. May be a month, may be three, but Russia will be in some kind of unique 2026 Russian populace revolt by October. Huh? Why does that feel familiar?
Thank you, Ms. Young. Given your background and experience, I always appreciate the insights found in your essays.
Is Ukraine accepting refugees of political repression? Asking for a friend...
Thanks for that excellent reporting Cathy!
Adding to the chorus, thank you for this thorough and honest assessment, it seems to me. It's hard to find reliable information about the Ukraine/Russia axis I feel I can trust, so I really appreciate your in-depth journalism.
I’ve been sucked into The Bulwark by its incessant opinions, but honestly hard news reporting like this is what really makes my membership worthwhile.
I have to believe the Chinese have noted Russia's inability to subdue a country with 1/3 of the Russian population. There will not be much anyone can do if China decides to support an independence movement in Russia's eastern provinces.
Good read. Thanks.
Had the Democrats been successful in the election this war would have been over months ago.I am angry at Trump and the GOP but I am also mad at the European countries for not realizing the danger to themselves and getting dully behind the Ukraine. We will all get behind them with a New Democrat in the White House and get this war ended by pushing Putin out of Ukraine. Ukraine should join Nato and the EU. The U.S. will have to rebuild from voting to the military.
Europe at large now knows they must provide for joint security without the US, something of which they were not full aware until after Jan 20, 2025. At this point US support would be welcome but not necessary. With European support Ukraine has become a cutting edge military power through its drone development. As a US citizen I envy Ukraine’s ability to develop cheap effective weapons versus our reliance on huge (bloated) expensive platforms.
Agree. Germany got entangled in buying Russian gas (Nordstream Pipeline) and a few smaller countries are openly pro-Putin (notably Hungary, although not anymore.
Great! Now make it stop.
If only there was a country with a history, dedication and liberal democratic government that could insert itself in help to finding an end to this war. Of course it would have to have the most impressive military in history, geopolitical expertise, and recognize its own interest in the conduct and outcome of this war.
If only…
I am pretty sure there is no one else in American journalism besides Cathy Young who continuously gives us this complete, detailed and deep info about what is happening with the Ukraine war and with Russia in general. You are a treasure, Cathy, and the Bulwark is lucky to have you.
There’s also this Substack, which you can read free.
https://olgalautman.substack.com/
Great work, Cathy. I always read your updates on the war, I think your analysis is very valuable and helps me understand the situation.
Very good ‘sitrep’, Cathy. You are following this as closely as it should be followed by anyone with a sense of what is important in the world stage.
I found it very interesting that Lukashenko went to meet with Xi after that strange encounter with Putin in Valdai. We will probably be able to make some educated guesses by the time you write your next article!
Thank you.
Thank you for this, Cathy. Your reporting is much appreciated.