What If DeSantis Doesn't Run?

And why you should hope he does.

(Composite / Photos: GettyImages)

1. Maybe He Isn’t Running?

Let me drop two items here for you to consider:

George Conway🌻 @gtconway3d

It makes no sense for DeSantis to run this cycle. To beat Trump, DeSantis would have to go hammer and tong in a one-on-one race against him. DeSantis isn't capable of that, it isn't going to be one-on-one, and even if he were and it was, DeSantis would end up alienating a good… https://t.co/zstzMsMYFs

Lucy Caldwell @lucymcaldwell

Good morning! Re-upping this because I still stand by it... Ron DeSantis is not going to run for President in 2024. https://t.co/17JPLa3Am4

Jonathan Swan @jonathanvswan

Fox News Poll: Trump’s lead grows in GOP primary race, now over 50% support foxnews.com/official-polls… #FoxNews

foxnews.comFox News Poll: Trump’s lead grows in GOP primary race, now over 50% supportFormer President Donald Trump has expanded his lead in the Republican primary race, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis being the only other Republican with double digit support.

Conway’s argument is that the smart play for DeSantis is to fleece donors up until the last second, then decline to run, then hope Trump loses to Biden, and then run in 2028.

I don’t agree with this view as analysis, but it’s possible that DeSantis could agree with it.¹ Especially if his position continues to deteriorate over the next 12 weeks. (And that's the timeline we're looking at, by the way. Republicans who want to seriously contend for the nomination probably have to be in the race by the end of June.)

So just for a moment, let’s pretend that it’s July 1 and DeSantis is out. What does the primary dynamic look like?