Mark, I am grateful to you for articulating a complex issue clearly and concisely so most of the us can understand the factors involved in military systems (e.g., people, placement, processes, and policy).
What I take away from this is good strategy requires systems thinking - seeing how the whole is not merely a sum of parts. Interdependencies matter. Relying solely on quantitative measures risks developing blindspots to qualitative value like relationships. It may appear efficient but it undercuts effectiveness.
As you point out, "Force posture, therefore, should never be viewed as an accounting exercise. It should be seen as an exercise to provide strategic flexibility."
So, in sum, strategic reviews should be both systemic as well as systematic.
We're in for a world of hurt as we lose expertise like yours to myopic decision making...
"And the decisions deserve to be guided by strategy, informed by history, and measured not by the next budget cycle or the desires of a few, but by the needs of the next generation."
I wonder to what extent NATO-member governments are merely passive actors in decisions about American military downsizing in Europe.
I mean, couldn't they counter-threaten, as they did with tariffs? Charge rent for remaining U.S. bases? Or threaten to specify which American bases are to be downsized? I don't know that they would, or even if it would suit their ultimate interests, but I'm all for calling out Trump's bullying posture on every possible occasion. Otherwise, he gets away with bragging about his power to retaliate against any country--any person--that won't comply with his whims
General, well said- as always. With each new administration I am fully focused on who will fill those few highly responsible positions of Defense, State, DIA, NSA, CIA and key Ambassadors who impact military readiness. We want them to be patriots, not partisans, and civilians who know something about war. I am usually pleased, and even surprised, by how good most of them are. The Senate should be united in approving each one of them. Sadly, I do not feel safe nor confident with most of them this time around, starting with the Commander in Chief down through the list. I treasure your evenhanded treatment of the lot, suspecting that you, too, kick the desk often enough. You and the whole Bulwark team deserve much credit from all of us for what you are striving to do for our liberal democracy. It truly is all about duty, honor and country, and trust in the common voter and rule of law. I know you will keep it up, but I did want to express my appreciation for what you all do. Here's to another 250! Jerome
Copies to all Congress people and senators; their aides;each cabinet member; each executive branch officer whose responsibility or input might affect or be affected by this announced exercise; each person with nominal input into security or budgeting; and all the people I forgot who might need a big dose of the big picture. Strap on your email blasters and put everyone on notice! Mark Williams
It’s my understanding that this force reduction in Europe has been the plan since summer of 2023 when Project 2025 published its 900+ page Mandate for Leadership. The chapter on the DOD spelled out that the plan would be to basically pull our troops out of Europe and only defend them from a nuclear attack by Russia. Otherwise they were on their own. This chapter was written by Christopher Miller, a retired Special Forces Colonel who served as Trump’s Acting SECDEF for the last 2 1/2 months of his first term after he fired Mark Esper.
Perhaps LTG Hertling can give us some background on Christopher Miller and the P2025 DOD chapter that is now being implemented by the current force posture review. It doesn’t sound to me like they really need a review because they decided 3 years ago they wanted to do this, and there was never any strategy other than “we’re outta here and we don’t care what happens after we leave”.
Everything this administration has done so far was either predicted or planned by P2025, except, I guess, for the Iran War. The strategy is inside those 900+ pages, such as it is, and I doubt it takes into consideration anything recommended by Hertling.
I pray that the next administration will have enough scraps left to salvage relationships with our friends, regain credibility with our enemies, and have a strategy to restore world order.
If the U.S. wants to withdraw troops from Europe, there's a simple way to do that: Convince Putin to pull out of Ukraine and pay them for the damage Russia has done there.
This would show that Russia isn't a threat to Europe, which would justify reduction in our forces there.
So, it's up to Criminal Trump to talk with his buddy in Russia and pressure him to get out of Ukraine.
The point of withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe is to signal to Russia that the United States won't defend Europe from them. It's part of Criminal Trump's attempt to convince people that the world should be run by dictators, not democracies.
In that sense it is bad for every person on the face of the Earth.
Except for Vladimir Putin and a few other strongmen.
The Russians helped Trump get elected precisely for this policy disaster. They want to get back as many of their neighbors as they can. Perhaps Putin is telling Trump that the Americas are the US “sphere of influence,” so just leave Eastern Europe to him. Will NATO stand up?
Mark, Excellently written exposition. Hegseth wouldn't understand it and Trump would need it broken down into pictures. It's just another way for Trump to thumb his nose at our European allies, and since he wouldn't back them if anything happened anyway, they should tell him that they want him out of Europe altogether. Who could blame them? Another two and a half years of this guy will be hazardous to their health. Anyway, Trump is throwing distractions at us like Ukraine is throwing drones at Russia, we must not lose sight of the critical point on the horizon, the midterm elections. You know every nefarious angle will be attempted, we must be ready.
Exactly, with Belgium ahead 4-1 Trump will have to conquer Brussels, leaving the troops in Europe will save $. Unless they go with another airpower fail.
Mark, I am grateful to you for articulating a complex issue clearly and concisely so most of the us can understand the factors involved in military systems (e.g., people, placement, processes, and policy).
What I take away from this is good strategy requires systems thinking - seeing how the whole is not merely a sum of parts. Interdependencies matter. Relying solely on quantitative measures risks developing blindspots to qualitative value like relationships. It may appear efficient but it undercuts effectiveness.
As you point out, "Force posture, therefore, should never be viewed as an accounting exercise. It should be seen as an exercise to provide strategic flexibility."
So, in sum, strategic reviews should be both systemic as well as systematic.
We're in for a world of hurt as we lose expertise like yours to myopic decision making...
"And the decisions deserve to be guided by strategy, informed by history, and measured not by the next budget cycle or the desires of a few, but by the needs of the next generation."
Uh oh, we're in trouble.
Removing troops make total sense if you are Putin or one of his whores
This doesn't end well. Like JVL says, "Good luck America."
I wonder to what extent NATO-member governments are merely passive actors in decisions about American military downsizing in Europe.
I mean, couldn't they counter-threaten, as they did with tariffs? Charge rent for remaining U.S. bases? Or threaten to specify which American bases are to be downsized? I don't know that they would, or even if it would suit their ultimate interests, but I'm all for calling out Trump's bullying posture on every possible occasion. Otherwise, he gets away with bragging about his power to retaliate against any country--any person--that won't comply with his whims
Xo
Olc
General, well said- as always. With each new administration I am fully focused on who will fill those few highly responsible positions of Defense, State, DIA, NSA, CIA and key Ambassadors who impact military readiness. We want them to be patriots, not partisans, and civilians who know something about war. I am usually pleased, and even surprised, by how good most of them are. The Senate should be united in approving each one of them. Sadly, I do not feel safe nor confident with most of them this time around, starting with the Commander in Chief down through the list. I treasure your evenhanded treatment of the lot, suspecting that you, too, kick the desk often enough. You and the whole Bulwark team deserve much credit from all of us for what you are striving to do for our liberal democracy. It truly is all about duty, honor and country, and trust in the common voter and rule of law. I know you will keep it up, but I did want to express my appreciation for what you all do. Here's to another 250! Jerome
Copies to all Congress people and senators; their aides;each cabinet member; each executive branch officer whose responsibility or input might affect or be affected by this announced exercise; each person with nominal input into security or budgeting; and all the people I forgot who might need a big dose of the big picture. Strap on your email blasters and put everyone on notice! Mark Williams
It’s my understanding that this force reduction in Europe has been the plan since summer of 2023 when Project 2025 published its 900+ page Mandate for Leadership. The chapter on the DOD spelled out that the plan would be to basically pull our troops out of Europe and only defend them from a nuclear attack by Russia. Otherwise they were on their own. This chapter was written by Christopher Miller, a retired Special Forces Colonel who served as Trump’s Acting SECDEF for the last 2 1/2 months of his first term after he fired Mark Esper.
Perhaps LTG Hertling can give us some background on Christopher Miller and the P2025 DOD chapter that is now being implemented by the current force posture review. It doesn’t sound to me like they really need a review because they decided 3 years ago they wanted to do this, and there was never any strategy other than “we’re outta here and we don’t care what happens after we leave”.
Everything this administration has done so far was either predicted or planned by P2025, except, I guess, for the Iran War. The strategy is inside those 900+ pages, such as it is, and I doubt it takes into consideration anything recommended by Hertling.
Thank you for continuing our education - appreciate it and all your service.
I pray that the next administration will have enough scraps left to salvage relationships with our friends, regain credibility with our enemies, and have a strategy to restore world order.
If the U.S. wants to withdraw troops from Europe, there's a simple way to do that: Convince Putin to pull out of Ukraine and pay them for the damage Russia has done there.
This would show that Russia isn't a threat to Europe, which would justify reduction in our forces there.
So, it's up to Criminal Trump to talk with his buddy in Russia and pressure him to get out of Ukraine.
It's really a way of creating a problem.
The point of withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe is to signal to Russia that the United States won't defend Europe from them. It's part of Criminal Trump's attempt to convince people that the world should be run by dictators, not democracies.
In that sense it is bad for every person on the face of the Earth.
Except for Vladimir Putin and a few other strongmen.
The Russians helped Trump get elected precisely for this policy disaster. They want to get back as many of their neighbors as they can. Perhaps Putin is telling Trump that the Americas are the US “sphere of influence,” so just leave Eastern Europe to him. Will NATO stand up?
Mark, Excellently written exposition. Hegseth wouldn't understand it and Trump would need it broken down into pictures. It's just another way for Trump to thumb his nose at our European allies, and since he wouldn't back them if anything happened anyway, they should tell him that they want him out of Europe altogether. Who could blame them? Another two and a half years of this guy will be hazardous to their health. Anyway, Trump is throwing distractions at us like Ukraine is throwing drones at Russia, we must not lose sight of the critical point on the horizon, the midterm elections. You know every nefarious angle will be attempted, we must be ready.
Are you insinuating that the Secretary of War doesn't understand military strategy?
He's the genius that planned the Iran war!
Oh, wait.
Nevermind.
Exactly, with Belgium ahead 4-1 Trump will have to conquer Brussels, leaving the troops in Europe will save $. Unless they go with another airpower fail.