I'm going to give you the reason that I'm more optimistic than everyone else on Biden getting reelected. It's really not a complex reasoning either.
Reality is, we're in the before period, the time of dreamers and idealism. It's a time when people think that DeSantis could still make it. That someone like Haley has a shot. The average vot…
I'm going to give you the reason that I'm more optimistic than everyone else on Biden getting reelected. It's really not a complex reasoning either.
Reality is, we're in the before period, the time of dreamers and idealism. It's a time when people think that DeSantis could still make it. That someone like Haley has a shot. The average voter is not even aware that there's an election coming. To them, elections are in the far future of next year. Most voters don't even take a look at candidates until the last few weeks of the election.
And what that means is that the Sununu's and Hewitt's of the world can pretend that the GOP is totally normal and not trying to elect Trump, and the average citizen can complain about Joe Biden because they haven't internalized that Trump is going to run again. We've seen this before, because it's exactly what happened with the Democrats in 2020. They had a ton of candidates, all of them were mostly busts, insane billionaire candidates tried to claim that they were the voice of the people, and then Joe Biden revealed himself, and everyone was like 'ah, stability.'
Because Joe Biden's superpower is that he's not popular, because he's not meant to be popular. Joe Biden is the 'eat your vegetables' candidate. He's not fun. He's not interesting. He's boring. And he's meant to be, because that's why he got elected. Voters elected Joe Biden because they were exhausted after four years of Trump sucking up all the oxygen in the room. Biden's pitch to the voters was 'elect me and you'll forget I'm president.'
And so right now, voters aren't thinking 'man I can't believe Trump is running again.' They're thinking 'man, Biden kinda sucks. He's all old and boring. I hope we get someone new to run against him!' And then Trump is going to be the nominee, and the debate shifts completely. The debate is not Biden versus some imaginary possibility. The debate is Joe Biden versus Donald Trump.
Now, I fully accept that Biden is not exactly a strong candidate in the modern sense. He doesn't have hardcore fans like Obama or Trump. But very few people genuinely hate Biden. Most people are ambivalent about him. You know who voters REALLY hate? Trump. Liberals hate that guy, but so do moderates and independents. They really, really don't like him. That's something that has been shown in every election since 2016. In 2016 lots of them gave him the benefit of the doubt. But by 2018, he was a pariah, and voters are negatively polarized against him.
Which means that it's much easier for voters to pull the lever for Biden not out of love for Biden but out of hatred of Trump. Biden's entire pitch can and should be this: remember the last guy? Remember how exhausted you were? Remember covid? Remember the economy exploding? That guy wants to be in charge again. Vote for me, I'm boring."
Trump is incapable of reassuring anyone, and the GOP can't pretend that he's a normal guy because he's running as the distinctly abnormal guy. He's not going to listen to anyone, and everyone knows it. The Sununu's of the world have been desperately trying to keep a lid on the idea that the GOP is anything but normal, but that will be impossible once Trump is the nominee and his face is on everything.
The question being asked now is 'Trump or Biden?' We asked this question before, and the answer was Biden. Nothing has happened that seems to change the calculus that even voters that hate Biden would vote for him over Trump, because Trump is hated in ways that very few people come close to getting hated. He's got Justin Bieber hate. He's got Nickelback hate. For those of you who love wrestling, he's got X-Pac heat, in that he's got 'go away' heat because no one wants to see or think about Trump ever again.
Having him on the ballot, having him at debates with Biden, having him doing media tours? Voters are going to get both barrels of Trump right in the face, and they will remember why they didn't vote for him the last time. One of the reasons that Trump was so strong going into 2020 was that voters very rarely regret their previous vote, which is why incumbents are so strong. Once you pull the lever once, it's easier to do it twice. Trump managed to break that by being horrifically unpopular among most of the electorate, and it's unlikely he's going to avoid reminding people why that was.
Biden is like a house salad. You didn't order it, it's not why you came there, but it's harmless if boring. Trump is getting a raw steak when you ordered medium well. You're sending that back because it's actively offensive to your senses. And I suspect voters are going to respond that way.
You are 100% correct. After the Trump fiasco (which made stock options trading nearly impossible) I wanted a boring President who kept his mouth shut and did his job. My market trading has been stable ever since Biden was elected.
I just wrote a contrarian case to JVL's newsletter and then I read your comment. Yes, it is quite possible that it will turn out this way; Chris Stirewalt at the Dispatch basically has the same argument. The ONLY thing that complicates that are 3rd party candidates. I don't think No Labels will field one; but Cornell West and Jill Stein can do a lot of damage to Biden in swing states.
Re: Biden being a good president, albeit boring, yet so disliked, I feel like there's a Dark Brandon meme out there themed after the quote from The Dark Knight:
"Because he's the hero Gotham deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So, we'll hunt him. Because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. A dark knight."
Too bad I'm too lazy to find it on a Friday off before the holidays.
It depends on what era Ric Flair we're talking about. 1980s/90s Ric Flair? That would be a problem. But it seems more like present day Ric Flair where everyone kinda thinks he's pathetic as he's still trying to put on matches at his age.
I do think you're right that to his fans, Trump has the same kind of power, where he can talk about making their wives ride space mountain and they'll cheer. But I think that we have to consider that once Trump does become the nominee? His supporters are not going to be quiet. They are going to get worse, probably with his blessing, and voters who may not even dislike Trump are going to have to contend with his belligerent fans.
If modern politics is like a sports event, then nothing negatively polarizes someone against a team quite like obnoxious, off-putting fans.
I'm going to give you the reason that I'm more optimistic than everyone else on Biden getting reelected. It's really not a complex reasoning either.
Reality is, we're in the before period, the time of dreamers and idealism. It's a time when people think that DeSantis could still make it. That someone like Haley has a shot. The average voter is not even aware that there's an election coming. To them, elections are in the far future of next year. Most voters don't even take a look at candidates until the last few weeks of the election.
And what that means is that the Sununu's and Hewitt's of the world can pretend that the GOP is totally normal and not trying to elect Trump, and the average citizen can complain about Joe Biden because they haven't internalized that Trump is going to run again. We've seen this before, because it's exactly what happened with the Democrats in 2020. They had a ton of candidates, all of them were mostly busts, insane billionaire candidates tried to claim that they were the voice of the people, and then Joe Biden revealed himself, and everyone was like 'ah, stability.'
Because Joe Biden's superpower is that he's not popular, because he's not meant to be popular. Joe Biden is the 'eat your vegetables' candidate. He's not fun. He's not interesting. He's boring. And he's meant to be, because that's why he got elected. Voters elected Joe Biden because they were exhausted after four years of Trump sucking up all the oxygen in the room. Biden's pitch to the voters was 'elect me and you'll forget I'm president.'
And so right now, voters aren't thinking 'man I can't believe Trump is running again.' They're thinking 'man, Biden kinda sucks. He's all old and boring. I hope we get someone new to run against him!' And then Trump is going to be the nominee, and the debate shifts completely. The debate is not Biden versus some imaginary possibility. The debate is Joe Biden versus Donald Trump.
Now, I fully accept that Biden is not exactly a strong candidate in the modern sense. He doesn't have hardcore fans like Obama or Trump. But very few people genuinely hate Biden. Most people are ambivalent about him. You know who voters REALLY hate? Trump. Liberals hate that guy, but so do moderates and independents. They really, really don't like him. That's something that has been shown in every election since 2016. In 2016 lots of them gave him the benefit of the doubt. But by 2018, he was a pariah, and voters are negatively polarized against him.
Which means that it's much easier for voters to pull the lever for Biden not out of love for Biden but out of hatred of Trump. Biden's entire pitch can and should be this: remember the last guy? Remember how exhausted you were? Remember covid? Remember the economy exploding? That guy wants to be in charge again. Vote for me, I'm boring."
Trump is incapable of reassuring anyone, and the GOP can't pretend that he's a normal guy because he's running as the distinctly abnormal guy. He's not going to listen to anyone, and everyone knows it. The Sununu's of the world have been desperately trying to keep a lid on the idea that the GOP is anything but normal, but that will be impossible once Trump is the nominee and his face is on everything.
The question being asked now is 'Trump or Biden?' We asked this question before, and the answer was Biden. Nothing has happened that seems to change the calculus that even voters that hate Biden would vote for him over Trump, because Trump is hated in ways that very few people come close to getting hated. He's got Justin Bieber hate. He's got Nickelback hate. For those of you who love wrestling, he's got X-Pac heat, in that he's got 'go away' heat because no one wants to see or think about Trump ever again.
Having him on the ballot, having him at debates with Biden, having him doing media tours? Voters are going to get both barrels of Trump right in the face, and they will remember why they didn't vote for him the last time. One of the reasons that Trump was so strong going into 2020 was that voters very rarely regret their previous vote, which is why incumbents are so strong. Once you pull the lever once, it's easier to do it twice. Trump managed to break that by being horrifically unpopular among most of the electorate, and it's unlikely he's going to avoid reminding people why that was.
Biden is like a house salad. You didn't order it, it's not why you came there, but it's harmless if boring. Trump is getting a raw steak when you ordered medium well. You're sending that back because it's actively offensive to your senses. And I suspect voters are going to respond that way.
You are 100% correct. After the Trump fiasco (which made stock options trading nearly impossible) I wanted a boring President who kept his mouth shut and did his job. My market trading has been stable ever since Biden was elected.
I just wrote a contrarian case to JVL's newsletter and then I read your comment. Yes, it is quite possible that it will turn out this way; Chris Stirewalt at the Dispatch basically has the same argument. The ONLY thing that complicates that are 3rd party candidates. I don't think No Labels will field one; but Cornell West and Jill Stein can do a lot of damage to Biden in swing states.
Jil Stein is conceited ass.
Well-stated! I am going to read this every morning of 2024, Shawn, along with JVL’s #1 in this stack. Thank you!
Let it be so!
Wow! 👏🏾
This is terrific, Shawn.
Re: Biden being a good president, albeit boring, yet so disliked, I feel like there's a Dark Brandon meme out there themed after the quote from The Dark Knight:
"Because he's the hero Gotham deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So, we'll hunt him. Because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector. A dark knight."
Too bad I'm too lazy to find it on a Friday off before the holidays.
Like all of this.
I worry that Trump has Ric Flair heat and not X-Pac heat.
It depends on what era Ric Flair we're talking about. 1980s/90s Ric Flair? That would be a problem. But it seems more like present day Ric Flair where everyone kinda thinks he's pathetic as he's still trying to put on matches at his age.
I do think you're right that to his fans, Trump has the same kind of power, where he can talk about making their wives ride space mountain and they'll cheer. But I think that we have to consider that once Trump does become the nominee? His supporters are not going to be quiet. They are going to get worse, probably with his blessing, and voters who may not even dislike Trump are going to have to contend with his belligerent fans.
If modern politics is like a sports event, then nothing negatively polarizes someone against a team quite like obnoxious, off-putting fans.