We shouldn’t overstate what happened last night, but we shouldn’t understate it, either: Today is the beginning of the endgame on Donald Trump.1 The results put in motion a number of dynamics that might bring about the defeat of Trumpism and will definitely force Trump and Republicans into decision points earlier than they had hoped.
We’re going deep on victory today. And hope. But with some clear-eyed understanding of the risks ahead. Let’s hit it rundown-style. My friends: This one goes to four.
1. Hispanic Voters Big Mad
The single most important data point last night was the Hispanic vote. Union City, New Jersey, was my bellwether here because it’s a heavily Hispanic town (81.6 percent Hispanic) that swung toward Trump for two consecutive elections:
Trump vote share, 2016: 19 percent
Trump vote share, 2020: 28 percent
Trump vote share, 2024: 41 percent
How did Republican Jack Ciattarelli do in Union City? Holy shit: