Damon Linker at Eyes on the Right has another great post on abortion, The Culture War Over Abortion Will Never End.
Unfortunately it is paywalled, I'll quote a bit here about the breakdown of public opinion from a Marist poll given since 2009
"When respondents were asked to say whether and when abortion should be restricted, the results show a deeply conflicted electorate.
Twenty-one percent say the procedure should be available to women at any time during pregnancy.
Ten percent think it should be restricted after the first six months.
Twenty-five percent think it should be available only during the first trimester.
Twenty-six percent think it should be permitted only in cases of rape, incest, or the save the life of the mother.
Ten percent would limit abortion to cases when the life of the mother is at stake.
And 8 percent think abortion should be illegal in all cases."
In focus groups a common post-Dobbs sentiment was 'I'm pro-life but I don't want to ban early abortions, they should be up to a woman and her doctor'. Those people did not like Roe yet to their surprise missed it after it was gone. My feeling is they did not like establishing a constitutional right to what they saw as a social ill, yet they don't like government involvement either. First trimester unregulated but strong regulations thereafter is a compromise they can live with. An analogy is adultery - a positive constitutional right to cheat would be unpopular, but that doesn't mean people want a ban.
How does this tie-in with contraceptives? People who did not like Roe and now miss it are not the sort of people who oppose contraception.
At the same time activists are not great at electoral calculus, the 18% who want abortion banned outright are willing to alienate voters in the middle. They aren't good at balance and compromise. They aren't the sort to embrace contraception no matter how rational that would be.
Damon Linker at Eyes on the Right has another great post on abortion, The Culture War Over Abortion Will Never End.
Unfortunately it is paywalled, I'll quote a bit here about the breakdown of public opinion from a Marist poll given since 2009
"When respondents were asked to say whether and when abortion should be restricted, the results show a deeply conflicted electorate.
Twenty-one percent say the procedure should be available to women at any time during pregnancy.
Ten percent think it should be restricted after the first six months.
Twenty-five percent think it should be available only during the first trimester.
Twenty-six percent think it should be permitted only in cases of rape, incest, or the save the life of the mother.
Ten percent would limit abortion to cases when the life of the mother is at stake.
And 8 percent think abortion should be illegal in all cases."
In focus groups a common post-Dobbs sentiment was 'I'm pro-life but I don't want to ban early abortions, they should be up to a woman and her doctor'. Those people did not like Roe yet to their surprise missed it after it was gone. My feeling is they did not like establishing a constitutional right to what they saw as a social ill, yet they don't like government involvement either. First trimester unregulated but strong regulations thereafter is a compromise they can live with. An analogy is adultery - a positive constitutional right to cheat would be unpopular, but that doesn't mean people want a ban.
How does this tie-in with contraceptives? People who did not like Roe and now miss it are not the sort of people who oppose contraception.
At the same time activists are not great at electoral calculus, the 18% who want abortion banned outright are willing to alienate voters in the middle. They aren't good at balance and compromise. They aren't the sort to embrace contraception no matter how rational that would be.