Allan Lichtman’s “Keys” Are BS
This one weird trick does not actually predict election results.
1. I Guess We’re Doing This
The idiosyncratic mobile gaming company that publishes a dead-tree newspaper released a video this morning in which the 77-year-old Allan Lichtman runs and flexes and shimmies his hips. And then goes through his “keys” to predict the 2024 election.
The video is here, but you’ll hate yourself if you watch it. That’s why I did it for you.
First let me spoil it: Lichtman says that Kamala Harris is going to win. His “model” requires 8 of his 13 “keys” to be true for the incumbent party to hold the White House. The Harris campaign satisfies at least 8 of them. Lichtman leaves open the possibility that Harris will ultimately satisfy as many as 10 of the keys, so it’s not even all that close.
Should you be comforted by this news?
Hard no.
Lichtman’s “keys” are nothing more than parlor tricks and folkways, the political equivalent of wearing garlic to protect yourself from vampires.1
Let’s talk about them.
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