America Lost. Iran Won. Trump Shat the Bed.
America will leave Iran weaker; the Islamic Republic will be stronger.
1. The Speech
It is true, as the president said last night, that the Iranian navy and air force have been almost eliminated.
It is also beside the point. The Islamic Republic has never been—and never wanted to be—a naval power. They have never made extensive use of air power. Those two branches have nothing to do with the regime’s strategic goals. Trump bragging about winning the sea and air wars in Iran is like Norway taunting America over beating us in the Olympic biathlon: America does not care about the biathlon; we’re a hockey country.
The Iranian leadership cares about two things: preserving its theocratic regime and possessing strategic weapons.
When this war ends in “two or three weeks” the Iranian regime will be more securely in power than it was before the war and it will have demonstrated the power of a strategic weapon.
America will have lost. Iran will have won. Let’s examine the scope of our defeat and their victory.