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John Kelly's avatar

The people who say that there is some equivalence between Trump and Biden-- that they are two sides of the same coin and that they represent right and left political extremes that are more or less equivalent distances from the center --are Trump voters, not Biden voters. This is the exact definition of "both-sidesism," which is a resident idea among the American Right, and not the Left. If these people don't vote for No Labels, they will vote for Trump in much greater numbers than for Biden. But these are the people to whom No Labels makes its overtures.

The No Labels pitch is that both Trump and Biden are too extreme, but that is an inherently conservative talking point. No Labels, especially with a Republican at the top of the ticket, is going to hurt Trump much, much more than Biden.

Similarly, RFK Jr appeals to Trump's base of MAGA voters far more than anyone who might vote for Biden. The majority of Americans see the clear danger of letting Trump back into government, and are prepared to vote for whomever the Democrats nominate, whether it's holding their nose for Biden or proudly doing so. They know that votes for any third party candidate work toward electing Trump.

It's my belief that if RFK Jr and No Labels are on the ballot next year, they will keep Trump under 40% in most states.

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E2's avatar

That wasn't Sarah's conclusion about No Labels. plus.thebulwark.com/p/the-evidence-is-in-no-labels-should-get-out

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John Kelly's avatar

Indeed it wasn't, nor is it the conclusion I've seen anyone else make. But I just don't see a disingenuous conservative ticket using fallacious conservative talking points to win the votes of people in the middle, and succeeding. They'll win over some Biden voters, but I think they'll be outnumbered ten to one by won-over Trump voters.

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E2's avatar

What we used to recognize as "conservative talking points" often *are* in the middle now, though, inside the range of the expanded coalition that elected Biden. Those values are not what Trump voters are responding to. The "freedom agenda" of George W. Bush (emphasizing American leadership in promoting international democracy) is rhetorically much closer to Joe Biden than to Trump.

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Dave Yell's avatar

A few months ago,JVL suggested(half jokingly) the RFK jr should run in the GOP. He might come in second.That wasn't as farfetched as it seemed.

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E. A. Bare's avatar

I sincerely hope you are correct in your analysis but the Kennedy name still wields a lot of power among democrats and is almost as despised among republicans as is Clinton.

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RCS's avatar

Excepts MAGAs are obsessed with believing JFK Jr is alive and a Trumper (not to mention that if JFK himself was alive today, he’d be one of them too).

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Dave Yell's avatar

Here is a tell; Trump people are now attacking RFK jr for running as an independent.

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John Kelly's avatar

I'm not saying there isn't work to do. Democrats need to get the message out about RFK Jr between now and the election(or the suspension of his campaign). Heavily-online MAGA adherents will not be affected by this messaging in the least, but that's fine in my opinion, if it would take support from Trump.

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