188 Comments
User's avatar
⭠ Return to thread
The Silver Symposium's avatar

It is absolutely amazing to watch Pelosi, who herself railed against notions that she was too old for her job, now pivot to shank one of her biggest defenders.

Nevermind that even if the Dam breaks, there is no one who could replace Biden. Regardless of whether we believe he's actually fit or not, he won every primary. Millions of people cast votes for him. Furthermore, unless the plan is to nominate Harris, who has no constituency, all of the money and organization so far will have been wasted.

Beyond that, we do have polls for other fantasy candidates, and all of them are losing to Trump. So the question is, do you pick one of the ones who polls say does worse than Biden or do you stick with a guy who has managed for four years and has roughly a 50/50 shot of winning?

Baffling to me that Democrats are so bad at politics they'd rather toss the election to candidates doing worse in polls than Biden.

Expand full comment
Bruce Brittain's avatar

Your crystal ball is just as cloudy as anyone else's, Mr. Symposium, so your prediction that "no one could replace Biden" has a 50/50 shot of accuracy. Sure, there was a democratic 2024 primary of sorts but it was mostly a coronation, kind of like the Hillary coronation of 2016. How did that work out?

Fantasy polls are even less helpful than actual polls. They match up "low name recognition" candidates with DJT. Useless. Had Biden done the patriotic thing in 2023 and announced he would not run in this election, there was plenty of time to hold a robust democratic primary which would have exposed the democrat's deep bench (or so they claim) and created name recognition for the eventual winner. Polling that person against Trump would have had some meaning.

In the meantime, we're watching the republic fade to black in the very manner that Lincoln predicted, rotting from the inside.

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

If progressives had done the "patriotic" thing in 2016 - we would never have been stuck with Trump.

If Republicans had done the "patriotic" thing anytime over the last eight years, we wouldn't have been stuck with Trump.

So blaming Joe Biden for recognizing that a. way too many voters will only vote for a white man and b. he's the only competent candidate in the fucking race is just ridiculous.

Nancy Pelosi plays chess eight moves ahead. I'm curious how this ends up but my bet is Biden wins in November.

Expand full comment
Bruce Brittain's avatar

Ms. Collins, I try very earnestly not to be "ridiculous". If you are interested, you can read a post I wrote in February 2023. It predicted that there was going to be an age problem for Biden if he ran again in 2024. Ergo, I am not new to this point of view, bad debate performance or not.

"Dear Joe". https://13thclown.com/?p=2954

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

So yes, you thought Joe Biden was too old last year.

Hooray for you.

Who exactly did you expect to replace him? Where was the move to draft that person in the last 18 months?

Did you call for Obama to drop out when he had a bad debate?

Is it really really more important for you (and Bill Kristol I might add) to be "right" than to actually admit to reality?

Normally, the person to replace him would be his VP but you know and I know, the reason most of you are getting hysterical is because his VP is a black woman.

So feel free to continue moaning and wailing while the rest of us work to get Joe Biden re-elected.

Somehow we'll survive without you.

Expand full comment
Bruce Brittain's avatar

Ms. Collins--

Your replies are full of anger and insults. I find them off-putting and disappointing. Clearly you haven't read my other comment today wherein I address the misogynistic and racist issues for some voters as regards Kamala Harris. In spite of what you believe about me as being either or both, I am personally offended. One supposes, Ms. Collins, that whoever the democratic candidate is in November, that you will vote for them and not vote for DJT out of spite for even the legitimate discussion of whether Joe should be the candidate at this point in time. We're on the same team. We just disagree on the best strategy for beating DJT. I make my points without resorting to insults and thinly veiled sarcasm. "Hooray for me."

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

Oh, Mr. Brittain, if you think that was sarcastic, you really have no clue.

I will be voting for Joe Biden for the same reason I just sent more money to Joe Biden - because he's an excellent president and I want four more years.

You on the other hand are living a fantasy where in the next four months, we find some extra-special Democrat to replace him, re-run the primaries and pretty much waste everyone else's time whining that Biden is old before settling down to the fact that one bad debate is not the whole game.

You're also ignoring the fact that this moaning and groaning is exactly what most people despise about this party and certainly will not convince a lot of them to get out and vote for Biden.

So until you convince me that you have A GD CLUE about how the US runs national elections, I will continue to be sarcastic.

Expand full comment
Sko Hayes's avatar

You remember how well Dean Philips and RFK Jr. did against Biden, right?

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

The best of pundents are no better at predicting than the rest of us at the moment. The age issue was always trouble for Biden. And now it is probably a game changer (since the debate)

Expand full comment
Bruce Brittain's avatar

Virtually no one knows Dean Philips and RFK, Jr. is a whacko. So, your point would be?

Expand full comment
Sko Hayes's avatar

My point is incumbents rarely have challengers, and those who do lose.

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

People ran against Biden.

Those people lost. And by the way, they lost by bigger margins than Haley lost to Trump.

Expand full comment
Bruce Brittain's avatar

Quick, Ms. Collins (and no Googling), name those "people".

Expand full comment
Sko Hayes's avatar

Already named, above.

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

Dean Phillips

Marianne Williamson (who did better than Dean Phillips btw)

Uncommitted (who also did better than Dean Phillips.)

Would you like me to go back to 2020?

Or do you not remember the weeping and wailing about Biden's age in 2020?

Expand full comment
Don Gates's avatar

Dean Philips was the only one with the stones to do the right and necessary thing, and he got ridiculed and denounced. I wasn't opposed to what he was doing, but I wasn't a defender of his, either. No matter what, Phillips was not the guy to do it, he was just the only one willing to do it. Phillips was right, and everyone who said otherwise was wrong.

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

Dean Phillips has no real experience except that he ran the family business.

Didn't we learn our lesson in 2016?

You say stones -- I say delusions of grandeur.

Expand full comment
Don Gates's avatar

I said he wasn't the guy to do it. But he was the only one who did. And he was right. We needed someone other than Biden as the nominee.

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

Because the most legislatively successful president since LBJ should have let his party tear itself apart while running against a nut job?

Do tell.

There's a reason it was Dean Phillips and not Gavin Newsom who challenged Biden.

And don't kid yourself -- if Newsom had smelled blood in the water, he would have done it in a heartbeat.

Expand full comment
Migs's avatar

Remind how good of a president the following are:

Scott walker

Jeb bush

Ron desantis

Nikki Hailey

Marco Rubio

Tim Scott

Hillary Clinton

Bernie

I don’t know what the answer is but believing that these candidates who have (1) no money, (2) no national brand, (3) no campaign team, and (4) have never run nationally.

Trump has murdered like 30 “great” politicians. The chances we can pick the right one and they can make the case against a generational politician in 2 months is super steep. Waving that off seems profoundly risky

Expand full comment
Bruce G's avatar

"we do have polls for other fantasy candidates, and all of them are losing to Trump"

CNN is out with a poll today showing EVERY other mentioned candidate outperforming Biden. A full 75% want a different candidate. (56% of self identified Dems want someone else)

This is a real issue. Burying your head in the sand and pretending it isn't is the way Trump gets elected.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

The polls I'm using are here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Which as far as I know, are the most up to date polls. Biden wins about half of them, Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, and Buttigieg all lose.

I'm not burying my head in the sand, I'm looking at the data as we have it.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

The rubber will meet the road once we get all the post debate polls out.

Expand full comment
Bridget Collins's avatar

Why?

When in the last two years have polls been accurate?

Expand full comment
DJ's avatar

None of these people are currently campaigning except Biden.

Right now the election is a referendum on Biden. His only hope is if he can turn it into a referendum on Trump.

Expand full comment
Migs's avatar

Yeah they have the same chance of going up as they do down. I don’t understand how people do t realize this.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

Agreed.

Expand full comment
Rita Parker's avatar

Hell, they apparently want Trump to win. Pathetic.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

Personally, I think they've always been like this. In 2020, it caused Bloomberg to enter the race, because the party was so baffled and terrified that all of it's women and minority candidates failed, and the only one with any chance to win was Joe Biden.

Biden of course, crushed Bloomberg like a paper cup with the backing of southern black voters, because as it turned out, Biden had a really strong constituency with actual voters, not the ones the focus groups said existed.

This seems to be a theme with Democrats; they talk a lot about voters that don't exist. We've had primaries, and not only was no one willing to get into the race, the ones who did lost by huge margins. In one case, when Biden wasn't even on the ballot!

So apparently, their message was 'the people have spoken unless we dislike what the people have chosen so we'll decide on our own who the candidate should be!' Which has never gone well for any party in American history.

I don't think they want trump to win. I think they cannot imagine themselves winning, because they're so convinced that they can only lose no matter what hand they play.

Expand full comment
Eva Seifert's avatar

Thank you for saying what I've been trying to say.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

I would be in favor of replacing Biden if there was some other candidate that was A. winning primaries and B. polling better than him. Neither is true. Biden won every primary by a huge margin. Every supposedly better candidate is polling worse than Biden is against Trump.

So unless a unicorn springs up from the ground, the best chance is still Biden.

Expand full comment
Rita Parker's avatar

MAGA wants Trump. The GOP got on board because everyone who went against him lost. The majority of us want Biden but Dems as a whole have no steel in their spine. Biden's gotten more support from Adam Kinzinger than Nancy Pelosi! The hysteria over a bad debate performance is ridiculous. Thank you for what you said.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

CNN has brand new polling out regarding all Dem Candidates against Trump.

Expand full comment
Ray Oyler's avatar

And it shows Harris the closest to beating Trump, and that includes Biden. Caveat that it's only one poll.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

With many to follow.

Expand full comment
Eva Seifert's avatar

Yup!

Expand full comment
Jennifer's avatar

Elizabeth Warren crushed Bloomberg in one debate and he wasn't the same after that. If she had only taken on Bernie the same way she might have had a better showing.

Biden had nothing to do with Bloomberg's failure.

An incumbent hasn't been primaries since 1980; to expect that to change in 2024 is silly thinking.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

First of all it is up to Biden whether he stays or drops out. Secondly, if it wasn't for Clyburn's endorsement before the South Carolina primary, Sanders would have been the Dem. nominee.Then Trump would have won. I wonder if Clyburn has Biden's ear as to influence what Biden does?

Expand full comment
Don Gates's avatar

Regardless of whether we believe he's fit or not? I have no interest in running a candidate potntially unfit for office in an election we must win. When the facts change, it's time to reevaluate your course of action. The facts have changed, and it's unfortunate that they changed after votes were cast in uncontested primaries, but incredibly fortunate they changed while there is still time to do something about it. There is something seriously wrong with the president, and it's not going to get any better.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

I don't believe he's unfit, and I don't believe that there is anything seriously wrong with him. I also don't think you can evaluate that in a single 90 minute period.

More importantly, we already have a mechanism for dealing with that, so if he's actually unfit, then his cabinet can remove him. Unless they do that, the proper thing to do is to vote for Biden.

Expand full comment
Walternate 🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇺🇹🇼🇩🇰🇬🇱🇲🇽🇵🇦's avatar

With all due respect, the problem isn't what any of us would do. I think it's fair to say, if you're here at The Bulwark, then you're voting for the Not-Trump candidate. It's all of those people that aren't here; those that aren't Democrats; those that, much to our dismay, may be willing to elect a King Trump (given the recent SCOTUS ruling) because Biden seems too old and my eggs are too expensive. Those are the people I fear most; the ignorant with a chip on their shoulder.

Expand full comment
Don Gates's avatar

I'm going to vote for him. I'm just not sure he's electable.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

I'm voting for him. I don't think he is electable now. I thought he had a decent chance(50 %) until the debate.The age and acuity issue will get worse now.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

Welcome to politics! No one knows if a candidate is electable until the votes happen.

But right now, he's the most electable using all the available data we have, and we already went through 'is he electable' in 2020 with him.

The other thing is all 'electable' means is 'will people vote for him.' The GOP understands that anyone is electable if the they put an R next to their name to their voters. If Democrats understood this, then we would not be having a problem. Instead, they kneecap themselves at every opportunity.

Expand full comment
William Vobejda's avatar

Have you been watching him for the last year or so? Do you care about the next 4 years if he wins? I will vote for him too, but only because of his opponent.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

The reality is that the future is the future, and the present is the present. Our current situation is not our future situation. Our present requires defeating Trump; if we need to replace Biden after that point that's a different conversation, and one we've had before as a nation.

But if the worry is 'can Harris be president' then perhaps the question is not about replacing Biden but about replacing Harris.

Expand full comment
William Vobejda's avatar

If the only goal is hoping we beat DT, then I agree Biden’s chances are better with KH on the sidelines. I’d like to see Wes Moore considered.

But if we care about governing over the next 4 years, then a change in the top makes sense to me. A governor from a purple state (Michigan?) with Moore as VP would be my choice.

Expand full comment
Marie Josette Murray's avatar

Yes, I have been watching him, with great appreciation. He's older; doesn't move like he used to; still has his stammer; and he did have a miserable non-debate experience about which I'm still unsure we have even part of the story. But importantly, *debate is not what a president does 99.999% of the time*. They govern. He's got a surpassingly positive record that would have been even greater had the Rs not opposed every step. Even without Darth Vader, I'd be for him.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

It might not be a great comparison but Cabinet removal didn't work under Trump.

Expand full comment
The Silver Symposium's avatar

It didn't, because no one wanted to do it. It also didn't work under Reagan. And it wouldn't have worked under Nixon. But it exists, if they believe that's the best option. My point is, removing a president isn't like removing a prime minister in Britain; you're stuck with them for four years. That's how it is. That's how it's always been, and likely always will be.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

Removal by cabinet is dead and so is impeachments.Dead and buried by recent histiory.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

And those facts changed after last Thursday.

Expand full comment
Hugh's avatar

I have to assume Pelosi was not speaking off the cuff here, and she thinks it's useful to not shut down this discussion, probably based on non-public discussions or data. I'm 100% certain she wants Trump to lose whichever way that's possible.

It's true that Fetterman won his senate race even after a stroke, and most of us will 100% vote for Biden if he's the candidate anyway. But the Trump campaign is guaranteed to show adverts with clips of Biden's muddles talk from the debate and "Is this person fit to be President?", so Biden will now need to be a few percent ahead to counter this handicap.

I really don't think the money is insurmountable, and Biden could offer to make his campaign available to a replacement candidate. It's true there is a risk a new candidate could tank, but the initial poll from Biden's team shows them at the same level as Biden (before any post-debate drop) without any campaign to build name recognition that might boost them as a non-elderly non-Trump human being who can more clearly articulate policies. So it's not clear if changing would be good or bad.

Expand full comment
Tai's avatar

All I am asking for this July 4 is for people with actual influence within the Democratic Party to look at all facts and make an informed decision. Pelosi’s statement is giving me some hope that she is not going into the next four months flying blind. Although she is no longer the minority leader, but think she still has infuence.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

I think it is more than most of us who will vote for Biden against Trump. Trump and MAGA no longer need AI in campaigning against Biden.

Expand full comment
Barbara Bryniarski's avatar

why aren't the Dems running nonstop ads showing trump's muddled talking in his speeches? The Hannibal Lecter speech at Cape May, all his lies in the debate, windmills killing birds and causing cancer, the sharks and the electric batteries, etc..and how Climate Change doesn't exist and how he'll do away with climate change regulations if big business contributes a billion $ to his campaign.

Expand full comment
Don Gates's avatar

They're already running an ad about what Democrats were saying about Biden's age and fitness followed by some of his most egregious stumbles from the debate.

Expand full comment
John Tillinghast's avatar

Most of the public is not truly familiar with Whitmer, Newsom, etc. Put somebody likeable and sane on TV for 4 months and they might win through sheer Trump exhaustion.

Expand full comment
Dave Yell's avatar

Quite possible

Expand full comment
Charles Gonzalez's avatar

Biden does not have a 50/50 shot at winning - that’s the point of the current exercise. If the game was still at the point it was last wed then there would be none of this. Biden and his team did this - not anyone else. Show me a campaign blitz strategy that bangs the drum loudly and consistently for the next 4 months with Biden and Harris leading the daily charge and I’ll stay put - otherwise this is political malpractice of the highest order

Expand full comment
Susan D's avatar

I doubt those millions of primary voters would cast votes for Biden today. You call Dems bad at politics. I guess you think the Republicans who run a vile reptile three races in a row as being much better at politics. Dems will rally around a new candidate. A female would be great to point out the abortion travesty. A Black person would be great to keep the minority vote. Oh, I think I just described Kamala Harris! Can't wait to see the Trump Harris debate.

Expand full comment
Darin's avatar

Good for Nancy Pelosi. This means we have an opportunity of switching to a candidate that has a greater than 0% chance of defeating Trump. Joe Biden on debate night resembled King Theoden before being exorcised by Gandalf in The Two Towers.

Expand full comment