I keep hearing if Ukraine falls to Putin "the Baltics will be next". If Putin had pulled off a Blitzkrieg like Hitler did in Poland and France that idea might be a realistic worry. But even IF Putin wins this war the cost will be great enough that he isn't going to whip around and go into direct conflict with NATO. Even after a substant…
I keep hearing if Ukraine falls to Putin "the Baltics will be next". If Putin had pulled off a Blitzkrieg like Hitler did in Poland and France that idea might be a realistic worry. But even IF Putin wins this war the cost will be great enough that he isn't going to whip around and go into direct conflict with NATO. Even after a substantial pause to reconstitute his depleted material and human resources.
I don't think anyone in the West is really expecting a definitive Ukrainian victory. Everyone knows that barring a total rout of one side or the other there will be a negotiated settlement of some sort and the West wants to give Ukraine the strongest possible hand in those eventual negotiations. But, no, Ukraine is not worth a wider armed conflict in Europe... so threatening to have one isn't really helpful.
American enthusiasm for Ukraine, like American enthusiasm for everything that captures their attention, is a mile wide and an inch deep. Anything that would require Americans to suffer any involuntary sacrifice, however slight, will be used as a cudgel by Republicans to defeat Biden. Just look at the demagoguery around gas prices.
I keep hearing if Ukraine falls to Putin "the Baltics will be next". If Putin had pulled off a Blitzkrieg like Hitler did in Poland and France that idea might be a realistic worry. But even IF Putin wins this war the cost will be great enough that he isn't going to whip around and go into direct conflict with NATO. Even after a substantial pause to reconstitute his depleted material and human resources.
I don't think anyone in the West is really expecting a definitive Ukrainian victory. Everyone knows that barring a total rout of one side or the other there will be a negotiated settlement of some sort and the West wants to give Ukraine the strongest possible hand in those eventual negotiations. But, no, Ukraine is not worth a wider armed conflict in Europe... so threatening to have one isn't really helpful.
American enthusiasm for Ukraine, like American enthusiasm for everything that captures their attention, is a mile wide and an inch deep. Anything that would require Americans to suffer any involuntary sacrifice, however slight, will be used as a cudgel by Republicans to defeat Biden. Just look at the demagoguery around gas prices.