In the statement "Had NATO signals been ambiguous (even if their true intention was NOT to defend Ukraine), that would have raised Putin’s expected costs of war-he doesn't want to fight NATO. Even a small risk of NATO involvement would have forced him to tread lightly, and maybe, prevented the war.", the key word is MAYBE. But Putin has …
In the statement "Had NATO signals been ambiguous (even if their true intention was NOT to defend Ukraine), that would have raised Putin’s expected costs of war-he doesn't want to fight NATO. Even a small risk of NATO involvement would have forced him to tread lightly, and maybe, prevented the war.", the key word is MAYBE. But Putin has been chipping away at Ukraine (and Georgia and Moldova) for years and seems clearly to be intent on reconstituting some version of the Russian Empire, or at the very least a "greater Russia" that includes Belarus and Ukraine. So even with ambiguity from the West, there is a good likelihood of continued aggression from Russia against Ukraine, and then what? It seems like a certainty that if NATO countries did not intervene in Ukraine that (a) Ukrainians would have a massive sense of betrayal despite the absence of any promises from us (since people tend to hear what they want to hear rather than what was said unless it's made crystal clear), and (b) Russia would move the needle from "Maybe" to "Almost certainly not" in terms of us intervening in Moldova and elsewhere. And then what would we have gained from that ambiguity?
In the statement "Had NATO signals been ambiguous (even if their true intention was NOT to defend Ukraine), that would have raised Putin’s expected costs of war-he doesn't want to fight NATO. Even a small risk of NATO involvement would have forced him to tread lightly, and maybe, prevented the war.", the key word is MAYBE. But Putin has been chipping away at Ukraine (and Georgia and Moldova) for years and seems clearly to be intent on reconstituting some version of the Russian Empire, or at the very least a "greater Russia" that includes Belarus and Ukraine. So even with ambiguity from the West, there is a good likelihood of continued aggression from Russia against Ukraine, and then what? It seems like a certainty that if NATO countries did not intervene in Ukraine that (a) Ukrainians would have a massive sense of betrayal despite the absence of any promises from us (since people tend to hear what they want to hear rather than what was said unless it's made crystal clear), and (b) Russia would move the needle from "Maybe" to "Almost certainly not" in terms of us intervening in Moldova and elsewhere. And then what would we have gained from that ambiguity?