Boots on the Ground Because Idk Why Not š¤·āāļø
Trump might invade Iran because he canāt think of anything else to do.
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1. Maskirovka
The American regime is sending conflicting signals. The president says negotiations with Iran are going well. He orders ground troops to the theater. The administration leaks that Trump wants the war wrapped up in a week or two. The administration leaks that it is preparing a massive āfinal blowā which will include a ground invasion.
There is value in hiding your plans from the enemy.
Unless you donāt have plans and are making it up as you go.
So far evidence suggests weāre operating on that second rubric.
Early in the war I thought it was highly unlikely Trump would dispatch ground troops. Over time my view has changed. The available evidence suggests:
Trump does not have a strategic objective.
Without an objective, he does not know how to conclude the war.
You see this in virtually every report coming from the administration. The president talks about āendingā the war without having any concept of what that looks like. Does it mean regime change? Does it mean new Iranian leadership that the president personally approves? Does it mean complete and total obliteration of the Iranian nuclear program? Does it mean de-militarization of Iran? Does it simply mean returning the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo?
All of which is why itās clear that ground troops really are on the table. If youāre in a war, you donāt have an objective, and you need the enemy to agree to a cessation of hostilities, then everything is on the table. The operation has escaped confinement.
Letās puzzle this out.