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Travis's avatar

Double-checked this and you're right, point acknowledged. But do you think Turkey will enforce that as a NATO member if Russian warships approach the straight? Even if the straits aren't an option, flying works just fine. We flew all of our people into Iraq/Afghanistan post-invasion. You don't need ships.

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Mary Brownell's avatar

I appreciate the back and forth between Travis and TCinLA, both of whose comments I have read and both of whom seem to have background military knowledge. I feel like I am getting additional information to add to the very thorough treatment of topics from JVL (thanks to you, JVL.)

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Color Me Skeptical's avatar

What is RussiaтАЩs airlift capability? Is it comparable to the U.S.?

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Travis's avatar

Doesn't need to be that much when round trips are an option.

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Mar 22, 2022
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Travis's avatar

If flown through Iraqi/Iranian airspace from Syria they dodge all of NATO airspace and can take the Caucuses leg to Sevastopol. Not a straight line, but very doable.

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Mar 22, 2022
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Travis's avatar

Alright, lets assume the Russians get *zero* replenishments from Syria/Libya and *maybe* no replenishments from Belarus. What's the Ukrainian military's counter to the Mariupol Model once it spreads to Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.? What does the Ukrainian mil do to counter the trade of Russian KIAs for civilian casualties via standoff ordnance?

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R Mercer's avatar

This is why you need a surge in equipment like attack drones that can be used in counter-battery and logistics denial. Nobody is going to out-artillery the Russian army, directly (not without having the equivalent of the US Air Force available).

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Mar 22, 2022
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Travis's avatar

I truly hope you're right. I just know that once Mariupol falls there'll be a lot more artillery batteries and shells available elsewhere. Kharkiv has already gotten a good amount of this treatment but not to the degree Mariupol has based on before/after Maxar imagery at scale.

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