None of this addresses what happens if the Mariupol Model spreads across the other urban centers of interest like Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv. How does the Ukrainian military fight artillery barrages when the Russians start trading their casualty rates for civilian ones elsewhere? How do they combat the Grozny/Idlib/Mariupol tactics…
None of this addresses what happens if the Mariupol Model spreads across the other urban centers of interest like Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv. How does the Ukrainian military fight artillery barrages when the Russians start trading their casualty rates for civilian ones elsewhere? How do they combat the Grozny/Idlib/Mariupol tactics that have worked time and again? If there's one thing that the Russians *have* kept in good supply logistically it appears to be artillery shells.
If cities are reduced to rubble and most of the defenders are now refugees, then there's a lot less resistance to be faced once you take what's left of the city. The Russians may only need to employ DNR/LNR militias at that point. We'll find out soon enough in the case of Mariupol that's for sure.
None of this addresses what happens if the Mariupol Model spreads across the other urban centers of interest like Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv. How does the Ukrainian military fight artillery barrages when the Russians start trading their casualty rates for civilian ones elsewhere? How do they combat the Grozny/Idlib/Mariupol tactics that have worked time and again? If there's one thing that the Russians *have* kept in good supply logistically it appears to be artillery shells.
If cities are reduced to rubble and most of the defenders are now refugees, then there's a lot less resistance to be faced once you take what's left of the city. The Russians may only need to employ DNR/LNR militias at that point. We'll find out soon enough in the case of Mariupol that's for sure.