Dear Panicrats: You’re Going to Win
It doesn’t matter if Republicans try to rig the game or steal the House.
1. Post-Election
On Tuesday I wrote about how Republicans are hoping to use a combination of gerrymandering, court rulings, and liberal commitments to process in order to build something like the Electoral College for the House.
It’s working. The best estimate I’ve seen is that in order to win a bare majority in the House, Dems will have to be something like +4 in the national popular vote.1
Which—ha-ha, very funny—is not all that far from the advantage the Electoral College gives Republicans in presidential elections.
Anyway.
It gets worse.
Over at the UnPopulist, Andy Craig has a piece wargaming how Republicans could steal control of the House even if Democrats win.
The short version is that in January 2027 Republicans could:
Object to the seating of members from majority-minority districts by claiming that, per Callais, these districts were drawn unconstitutionally.
Without those members seated, Republicans would have a majority and could vote in their own speaker.
The new speaker could then refuse to seat any Dems voted in through special elections, as Speaker Mike Johnson did for seven weeks to Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva.
As Craig says, this is a modified version of Donald Trump’s January 6th Electoral College gambit. Very cool; very legal. Maybe.
Sensible people will look at this scenario and say, Don’t be a Panicrat.2 That could not possibly happen.
To which I reply: Are you out of your gd mind? We all saw January 6th. Everything is possible.
But today I want to speak to panicked Democrats—yswidt?—because in my heart of hearts, I am one of you.3
It doesn’t matter what Trump and the Republicans do. You’re going to win.
That’s right. The seventh seal is breaking. Strap in for some weapons-grade JVL hopium.
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