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Stephen Leuchtman's avatar

Whoever these top Democratic officials are, they’re not at all in tune with the grassroots. Bodnar got booed in Ravalli County in early May. He’s a scandal plagued out of stater who won’t get more than 10% of the vote no matter how much they try to make fetch happen.

Here’s the thing, the entire premise of the campaign is flawed from jump. Grassroots Dems and Rs are pissed about the out of state dark money. Here’s a solution to that: we will run a candidate from out of state, completely tied to Missoula, with out of state dark money.

There is a light years difference between what Dan Osborn is doing and this peculiar little man who lied about his resume and tried to cover up sexual harassment at the U (after being hired to turn the page from a little rape problem with the football team).

The people endorsing Bodnar are an array of has beens with very little connection to the average voter. They have a theory of the electorate based on the fact that 2 in 5 voters identifies as an independent. But individually these folks have very little in common. They range from the Bernie Sanders left (about 20% of independent voters) to the Bo Gritz right (about 30%). Seth doesn’t scratch any of those itches.

I’m running in SD43 as a Democrat and have knocked on around 500 doors, and I haven’t talked to one person who is interested in Bodnar’s candidacy which is why he had such a difficult time gathering the signatures.

The idiocy of the Fireweed plan is that it just is more fantasy politics by people who have been separated from the state too long

Neil Berkson's avatar

Yes...............But. The forest for the trees is that if Republicans could lose any--let alone all--of Montana, Idaho and South Dakota Dems probably run the table. Even if the Dems dropped out in those states, DSCC would not spend big money--if any. Nebraska is in play so the Dem dropping out there is great. Any of the other 3 would be nice but not dispositive of Dem chances. North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska are most seriously in play. Nebraska also. Any--let alone all-- of Iowa, Texas, Florida going Dem should have us dancing in the street. Plus Dems have to and should hold Georgia and New Hampshire. For my money, Dems need a minimum of 52 seats to render Fetterman and Vance irrelevant.

CLS's avatar

I have said this before and will say it again. The Democratic Party needs a name change. Humans are just too weirdly stuck on 'labels', and the D label has become toxic after decades of anti-D propaganda. We need a new name. It's not like that has never happened before.

bitchybitchybitchy's avatar

How likely is it that any non-GOP candidate is going to win in Idaho or Montana? Just curious

Clay Bradley's avatar

Frank Church was defeated in 1980, which means that he was reelected in 1974.

Tai's avatar

Seth Bodnar is impressive and way more electable than any Dems in Montana. What an own goal by the Dems.

Stephen Leuchtman's avatar

Seth Bodnar is a scandal plagued, charisma negative dude. He can't even state a coherent reason for Montanans to elect him without a speechwriter.

He's a Pennsylvania native tied to Missoula (the least popular city in the state) without any grassroots support, in a very anti-dark money environment in the grassroots in both parties.

D B's avatar

This is really well deserved for the MTDEMs. Decades of severely lacking state party leadership only out done by a national party of the same and unwilling to fund the state parties. There are many cheap senate seats available, but the DNC let's the GOP take them for a bargain while setting piles of cash on fire in places like FL, CA, NY, and TX.

Andy Reed's avatar

You have to wonder where the pack in North Dakota got its money from and whether it was really from Republican operatives on both coasts: the Southeastern Atlantic Coast and the Gulf Coast.

Frau Katze's avatar

Judd Legum found a couple of supposed progressive PACS being funded by Republicans. Here’s one of his articles.

https://popular.info/p/progressive-champions-pac-is-a-gop

Andy Reed's avatar

Right. I've read about them. And I think that's what was in the back of my mind sparking my comment.

MatCauthon's avatar

I don’t know anything about her or this race. I looked her up and she has crazy eyes, so this story tracks.

Ray Van Cleve's avatar

This is the kind of analysis I like from the Bulwark!

Also - Frank Church is a fun throwback

mollymoe222's avatar

“ As one Montana Democratic official put it to me: “Alani [Bankhead] now really believes she won the election. . . . But she didn’t win the election, somebody decided she was going to win the election. And that somebody created a monster.”

Who wants to bet that big donation came from a super secret PAC funded by Republicans? If Bankhead hasn’t been able to figure out that she is being used as a spoiler, well, that’s alarming.

Stephen Leuchtman's avatar

Bodnar is the spoiler, and the out of state dark money supporting Bankhead was designed to make it easier for him. He has no natural support

Scott Hanlon's avatar

Great reporting. These are the trenches where the future of our politics are fought.

willoughby's avatar

Troubling sign of the times.

Trent Ford's avatar

Independent here from an “R state” (Alabama) and for those of you outside this kind of environment, congratulations. But here, you have to do serious political calculus and fighting with party machinery to fight for our democracy right now. Alabama has a Republican supermajority and the census fight will be coming up in addition to all the bullcrap and corruption flowing down from the national level. Our Republican candidate for governor (Tuberville, current senator 🫠) doesn’t even live here and is on record of not having known the three branches of government. The Republicans have money, a few big Democrat candidates will get some, but the rest of everyone is going to be taking shoestring budgets and elbow grease to fight campaigns 10x-ing their fundraising without the republicans putting in much work in many cases

jdz2002's avatar

Get. Out. Of. The. Race. Or be prepared to be responsible for the Republicans retaining control of the Senate.

Stephen Leuchtman's avatar

Great advice for Bodnar and his dark money supporters.

Scott Amderson's avatar

Too many Democrats treat party membership as a suicide pact. They will lose elections rather than speak from the heart or risk offending some interest group or say something deviating from the party line on some totally insane progressive position (I can’t say no to taxpayer funded sex changes for illegal immigrants in death row!). Or just being practical like supporting someone who has a bleeping chance instead of backing a sure loser. And you’d think Democrats from these particular states would be hungry enough to win that they could set aside egos. Oh well.

Stephen Leuchtman's avatar

The ego in this case is Jon Tester's and Max Baucus's and the out of state billionaire data center builder who is funding Bodnar. He was the third person they asked, and has enough scandals in his recent past to sink a Trump battleship.

The grassroots energy is heavily against dark money, and it's all Bodnar has. This idea that he is the best chance of beating Alme, when he struggled to get 12,000 signatures with hundreds of paid circulators, is ridiculous.