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R Mercer's avatar

WRT Civil War:

If there is a second civil war it will be nothing like the first one.

The first civil war had fairly clearly delineated geographic bounds and basically occurred on a state v state level. There were separate economies, pretensions to actual nationhood. A realistic probability that a separate nation with clear national boundaries and national structures could be created.

Currently the separation isn't really state v state, nation v nation. In many senses there is little distinction or separation on the fundamental levels of economy and social structure.

States appear red or blue on the basis of the population distribution between what we can loosely term urban and rural. If the rural population is larger the state is red, if smaller, it is blue--if they are even we call it purple. Some areas at the rural/urban boundary flip flop.

This doesn't make for neat battle lines or self-supporting economies that can sustain large scale conflict.

There will be a lot of terrorism and assassination, street violence. This will occur while a large number of the population is simply trying to get on with their lives (and those lives keep getting worse because of the mess).

Northern Ireland or Iraq or Afghanistan are closer to what you will see.

Steep decline ion the availability of things and massive inflation. Severely curtailed travel... a potential collapse of the economy on a scale not seen since the great depression--probably actually worse than that.

This is assuming the insurrectionists (at this point I am assuming the Right are the insurrectionists because, well---look around) can:

1) Get their act together ITFP;

2) Actually get more than the real whackjobs to engage in violence; and

3) Remain active for more than a few weeks.

It will be a mess like no one in this country (barring vets who served in Iraq or Afghanistan) has ever seen or experienced. I shudder to think about how bad it could actually get...

and we will get some form of dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship out of the whole thing. in the end.

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