There are two stories here. One is that Trump easily won the Iowa Republican caucus by a percentage that is a record for that primary in a normal election cycle. Which is the caveat. This is not a normal election cycle. Trump is effectively running as an incumbent yet was only able to barely get more than half the votes. Meaning that nea…
There are two stories here. One is that Trump easily won the Iowa Republican caucus by a percentage that is a record for that primary in a normal election cycle. Which is the caveat. This is not a normal election cycle. Trump is effectively running as an incumbent yet was only able to barely get more than half the votes. Meaning that nearly half supported someone else. It seems to me an incumbent should be expected to do far better than that. If Biden had a primary like this the media would be declaring his candidacy effectively over and Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Barack Obama, the Clintons, and every other Democratic Party luminary would be begging Biden to drop out.
Also, there are the polls that indicate that about 30% of Iowa Republicans would consider Trump unfit for office if he is convicted of a crime (there have been several recent national polls with similar results), and half of Nikki Haley's supporters would vote for Biden if Trump were the nominee (I think the poll of Haley supporters is even assuming no new negative developments). Both these outcomes seem to be on track to happen within the next few months.
If these polls are any indication that Bannon line of Republican voters who don't vote for Trump could be dramatically expanded. In 2020 about 5% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supported Biden. Imagine if that percentage could be doubled in 2024, and in addition many more Republicans who can't bring themselves to support Biden vote third party, stay home, or maybe write in Liz Cheney or someone else. Democrats and their anti-Trump allies need to set a goal of getting about 30% of Republicans to not vote for Trump. Does that seem ridiculously ambitious, considering the GOP's deeply entrenched and fiercely enforced party loyalty? Yes, but if 15% - half that 30% - ultimately decide that they're done with Trump, this would deliver the decisive blow and landslide electoral defeat needed to defeat MAGA once and for all.
In our deep-red SE area, GOP rumblings of not even voting in '24 are increasing; slowly, quietly, but it's heard in more venues per my democratic friends' reporting since before Iowa caucuses. FWIW.
There are two stories here. One is that Trump easily won the Iowa Republican caucus by a percentage that is a record for that primary in a normal election cycle. Which is the caveat. This is not a normal election cycle. Trump is effectively running as an incumbent yet was only able to barely get more than half the votes. Meaning that nearly half supported someone else. It seems to me an incumbent should be expected to do far better than that. If Biden had a primary like this the media would be declaring his candidacy effectively over and Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Barack Obama, the Clintons, and every other Democratic Party luminary would be begging Biden to drop out.
Also, there are the polls that indicate that about 30% of Iowa Republicans would consider Trump unfit for office if he is convicted of a crime (there have been several recent national polls with similar results), and half of Nikki Haley's supporters would vote for Biden if Trump were the nominee (I think the poll of Haley supporters is even assuming no new negative developments). Both these outcomes seem to be on track to happen within the next few months.
If these polls are any indication that Bannon line of Republican voters who don't vote for Trump could be dramatically expanded. In 2020 about 5% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supported Biden. Imagine if that percentage could be doubled in 2024, and in addition many more Republicans who can't bring themselves to support Biden vote third party, stay home, or maybe write in Liz Cheney or someone else. Democrats and their anti-Trump allies need to set a goal of getting about 30% of Republicans to not vote for Trump. Does that seem ridiculously ambitious, considering the GOP's deeply entrenched and fiercely enforced party loyalty? Yes, but if 15% - half that 30% - ultimately decide that they're done with Trump, this would deliver the decisive blow and landslide electoral defeat needed to defeat MAGA once and for all.
Points well made and reasoned, sir.
In our deep-red SE area, GOP rumblings of not even voting in '24 are increasing; slowly, quietly, but it's heard in more venues per my democratic friends' reporting since before Iowa caucuses. FWIW.
I hope you're right. It would be great if many Republican leaning voters are so burned out with Trump and MAGA that they just decide to stay home.