Don’t Count on the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Lasting Long
Both sides need a break, but lasting peace is far from likely.
AFTER 466 DAYS OF GRUELING and deadly conflict, Hamas and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The deal the two sides agreed on has reportedly not changed much from the framework crafted last year, which would mean that it will proceed in three separate phases.
The first phase is a 42-day temporary ceasefire, during which Hamas will release 33 hostages over multiple phases. Some of the hostages will be dead; hopefully, more of them will be alive. In return, Israel will release an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners from jail. More humanitarian aid will flow into Gaza, much of which Hamas will pilfer to feed its fighters.
The next stage will begin with another forty-two days of ceasefire, accompanied by the release of more hostages. In exchange, the Israel Defense Forces will withdraw from the strategically important Philadelphi Corridor, which forms the border between Gaza and Egypt. Once Hamas retakes control of the border, it will be able to smuggle in more weapons and possibly more fighters.
The last stage consists of a permanent ceasefire as Gaza rebuilds. If that sounds vague and overly optimistic to you, you’re not alone.
Both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump can be expected to take credit for the deal. Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have been conducting shuttle diplomacy for more than a year. However, according to multiple press reports, the momentum changed after Trump declared that “all hell would break loose” if Hamas didn’t release the hostages before his inauguration.
The deal is also a victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at least in the short term. He managed to form a unity government immediately after the October 7th attack, survive a spate of defections from influential moderate politicians, inflict major blows on Israel’s most dangerous adversaries on three fronts, and delay accountability for the failures of the Hamas attack. Freeing the hostages might relieve some of the pressure on him from his left—but maybe not for long. Should the deal hold, he could survive another round of elections—or he could wind up in prison for corruption.
When I toured Israel in June, I saw protesters marching in memory of their dead loved ones and chanting for the return of the hostages. Although some hostage families will oppose the deal, for many of them, having even just a loved one’s body back would begin the healing process.
As much as this deal is a victory for Israel, it’s also a victory for Hamas. They’ve survived to fight another day. And that in and of itself is a significant victory for a terrorist organization that conducted the largest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.
Except for the families who get reunited after 466 days, no one should be celebrating just yet. President Trump celebrated the Doha Agreement only to see the Taliban take Kabul. In 2011, Israel celebrated the release of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit. In exchange, Hamas received a thousand prisoners, including future October 7th architect Yahya Sinwar.
Everyone loves peace. Everyone wants to see the hostages released and returned to their families (except Hamas, of course). But no one should be under any illusions that the “permanent ceasefire”—if we even get that far—will be anything of the sort.
Instead, Hamas will rebuild, heal, and prepare for more attacks. Israel will rest, recover, and prepare to take the fight back to Hamas before the terrorist group can attack again.
Shaking hands with terrorists may boost an administration’s popularity. But, as Israel and the United States have both seen multiple times, in the long term, when legitimate governments make deals with terrorists, it’s the governments that end up changing while the terrorists stay the same.
Don’t bet on peace in our time.
 | A guest post by
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