Everything You Never Wanted to Know About the Trump Watch
Surprise! It’s a scam.
On the Secret pod Sarah and I talked about whether or not Kamala Harris is “doing enough,” which is a question some people (not you guys) have been very unhappy with me for asking.
1. Trump Watch
Having sold diplomas, vodka, steaks, water, sneakers, coins, and NFTs, Donald Trump is now hawking watches.
He is selling—by licensing his name, image, and likeness to a shadowy third-party vendor—two different models. Each model comes in three colorways. The prices range from $499 to $100,000.
Not a typo.
I had so many questions. I’m sure you did, too. Let’s answer them rundown style.
If I buy a Trump watch, will I get it in time to wear to the next insurrection?
Maybe. The website says the watches will ship in October. Or November. Or December. Or maybe some other month?
Watches start shipping in October/November/December. . . . Shipping and delivery dates are estimates only and cannot be guaranteed. We are not liable for any delays in shipments. Your order will ship as it becomes available, so the earlier you buy, the quicker it will ship. Each watch is made to order.
“Made to order,” by the way, does not mean “bespoke.” It means “dropshipped.”
How much are these watches worth, really?
Let’s take the $499 version, which is a red-dial steel dive watch. It has an automatic date movement of unspecified origin. (Translation: China.) It has a mineral crystal with an aluminum bezel. The clasp does not appear to have micro-adjustments.
The internet is full of off-brand watches like this. Here’s how you build one:
Everything you need comes from China using AliExpress. First you buy a steel case and bracelet for, say, $30. Like this one.
You engrave the caseback using laser etching working off an .svg file. Maybe that costs $5. Then you buy the cheapest possible automatic movement with a date function. Here’s one for $9. Pop the movement into the case and all that’s left are dial and handset. Hands are super-cheap.
And sunburst dials—even with applied markers—are not terribly expensive, either.
The final step is actually the most expensive: You have to pay someone to machine the “TRUMP” and signature bits and glue them to the dial. This is the first truly custom step and maybe, if the manufacturer wants to spend a little more money, they’re having a fourth-party make the dials for them out of sunburst blanks.
All told we’re in the neighborhood of $60. And that’s if you’re just trying to build a single watch without bulk purchasing power.
Reminder: They’re selling it for $499.
Okay, but that seems like a lot of work. Buying a bunch of parts, managing your supply chain. Overseeing assembly and QC.
I guess? Alternately you can subcontract out the entire project to one of the many businesses which specialize in making “custom” watch microbrands. You pick your design from their catalogue, send them your logo, they machine it and slap it on the dial. Then they ship you the finished product so that all you have to do is manage fulfillment.
Here’s a page from the catalogue of one of the “high-end” companies that does this.
You can find similar (but low-end) one-stop shopping on Ali Express. It’s all just a question of how much of the production/assembly you want to outsource.
Enough with the plebe beater watches. I want to know about the $100,000 Trump “Victory” watch!
At least these aren’t from Ali Express.
Almost the entirety of the cost for the Victory models comes in the material cost for the “solid gold” case and bracelet. Trump claims there’s 200 grams of 18K gold in each watch. If true, the spot price of gold puts that cost near $13,000.1 That’s real money.
The tourbillon movement inside these watches also appears to be an off-the-shelf product, but at least it’s a high shelf.2 If I had to bet, I’d guess the Victory uses something from Olivier Mory, who sells “Swiss Made” tourbillon movements that generally run around $3,000.3
I can’t speak to the cost of the diamonds because there’s no information about the total karat weight involved but they appear to be quite small, in the <1mm range. For the sake of argument let’s say that the diamonds add another $1,000.
We’re now talking about a total production cost in the neighborhood of $20,000—and possibly much less—for a watch offered at $100,000.
As a point of reference, the list price on a solid gold Rolex Submariner is $40,600. In the Submariner you get an in-house, state-of-the-art movement running at COSC spec inside a bullet-proof case. The fit and finish will be superlative. And even though you’re paying over the odds for the Rolex name, you’re getting 10x the watch for 40 percent of the price of a Trump Victory.
Did I mention that the Trump Victory can’t get wet? From the Trump website: “The Tourbillon watches are not intended for water exposure.”
So, you know, don’t wear it to a boat parade.
Why is a billionaire bothering with this scam project?
Trump says that his Victory watches are limited to 147 pieces in total. But they’re offered in three colorways. I would bet he’s selling 147 of each, for a total of 441 pieces. At $100,000 per, that’s $44 million. Less the production costs, that’s still $35 million. Trump licensed his image and likeness to the company doing the watch sales—exactly as he did with his sneakers and NFTs. We don’t know what his percentage of the take is, but if it’s less than 75 percent, he’s a fool.
Because if you’re the watch guys, you bring nothing to the table except the ability to make this a turnkey operation that the Big Guy never has to think about.
What Trump brings to the table is: There is no business without him. He could find other fulfillment monkeys to handle his wares. The watch guys could not find another Donald Trump to sucker people into paying $100,000 for a $20,000 watch.
From Trump’s perspective, he puts in an hour of work—signing off on the design and taping his video spiel—and walks away with low eight figures.
If this is such a good scam business, why didn’t Trump sell watches before?
He did. Perhaps you remember Trump Watches 1.0? He sold them in 2005 through Macy’s, with a typical retail price around $300. (This was before he had an army of mouth-breathing idiots panting after his merch.) In the main, these were gold-plated stainless steel pieces with Japanese movements. You can find them on eBay where as of yesterday—surprise!—people are trying to sell them for many thousands of dollars. Because game recognizes game, I guess.
Wait, does Donald J. Trump even wear a watch?
Yes. Trump is not a watch nerd, exactly, but he knows that Big Rich Guys should wear expensive gold watches. So he has a Patek Philippe Golden Ellipse ($17,500), a gold Rolex President Day-Date ($40,000), and a Vacheron Constantin Historiques Ultra-Fine ($20,000). It’s a small, understated collection and if I’m being honest, it’s impressive in its own way. These are beautiful watches from serious watchmakers and they suggest an elevated taste that I would not have expected from Trump.
They also suggest that Trump wouldn’t be caught dead with a Trump Watch on his wrist. He does not want to look like an early 2000s era rapper. His brand is not “street.”
Also, Trump would sooner cut his own hand off than pay $100,000 for one of these. He’s a hustler, not a mark.
Wait—doesn’t the existence of these $100,000 watches prove that Trump’s depiction of the American economy as a hellscape is ridiculous?
Trump, September 10, 2024: “People can’t go out and buy cereal or bacon or eggs or anything else. The people of our country are absolutely dying with what [Biden and Harris have] done. They’ve destroyed the economy.”
Trump September 26, 2024: “We’re doing quite a number with watches!”
Hold on a minute. I have a vague memory of Marco Rubio saying something about—
You mean this?
Here’s the guy that inherited $200 million. If he hadn’t inherited $200 million, you know where Donald Trump would be right now? Selling watches in Manhattan.
Ah, history.
First time tragedy. Second time farce. Third time grift.
If you haven’t signed up for The Bulwark yet, this is the time. The only way through this awful timeline is together.
2. Shield of the Republic
It’s been a while since I’ve hectored you about listening to Shield of the Republic, but this week’s episode is so good.
Eric and Eliot talk with military historian Philips O’Brien about the strategic thinking of FDR, Churchill, Stalin, Mussolini, and Hitler and it’s like auditing a class at SAIS.
Shield is the hidden gem of The Bulwark podcast universe. Don’t miss this one. You can listen to it here.
3. Spaghetti Scameti
Treat yourself to this watch nerd classic.
Anyone wanting to radically shave production costs would use a gold alloy and I cannot imagine that any Trump Watch owner would be wise to it.
The website calls it the “TX07 Tourbillon” but I have never heard of such a designation.
Correction (October 17, 2024, 1:10 p.m. EDT): As originally published, this newsletter included a paragraph suggesting that watchmaker Olivier Mory keeps his costs low by complying with a legal definition of “Swiss Made” that leaves room for a large percentage of the manufacturing to be done outside of Switzerland. However, Mory explained in an email to The Bulwark that his parts are sourced exclusively from Swiss suppliers. We regret the error.
Just as clarification, dropship and made-to-order are not synonymous.
Dropship generally means the item you buy already exists and is in someone else's warehouse. You buy it from me, I send the order to a third party who owns the stock, they ship it. I square up with the third party.
Made to order is similar, except the item does not actually currently exist. You buy it from me, I have someone else make it on my behalf, you eventually receive it in the mail.
This particular deal sounds to me like they are taking pre-orders. They will wait until some threshold is reached, then start the production process, then ship directly to you. I don't know where in CN watches are actually made, but I can guarantee you that there is a specific city where all the manufacturers and parts suppliers are.
Further, these will ship directly from China to your door to avoid tariffs. Any purchase under $800 is currently tariff free under Section 321. I doubt many $100k watches get sold, and those would go through a different channel anyway.
Shameless plug: I just quit my job in consumer goods supply chain. If anyone you know needs help on this stuff, reach out!
It's amazing that, in Joe Biden's Greatest Depression economy, Trump thinks he can sell $100k watches. Makes me wonder if it's not such a hellscape. I don't think too many folks were selling or buying such trinkets circa 1932.
This must have been JVL's favorite column ever to write. Under the cover of blasting Trump, he got to write an entire Triad about watch talk. I don't really read the watch talk, but I read today. It was like carrot cake for the vegetable-averse; you may not like your carrots, but you know you'll eat some cake. And I will never understand spending luxury car money on something you wear on your wrist that does exactly what my phone does for me - tells me what time it is.