Heads Trump Wins. Tails Putin Loses.

Three strategic views of Putin, Ukraine, and Trump.

Composite of a general view of smoke rising from the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant behind the village of Lastochkino, on February 15, 2024 in Avdiivka district, Ukraine and the road to the city, the outskirts of Avdiivka on February 14, 2024 in Avdiivka district, Ukraine. (Photos by Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos; Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)

1. Avdiivka

Last week Russian forces took control of the city of Avdiivka. The siege took many months and cost the Russians dearly in blood and treasure.

Does Avdiivka matter?

When you’re dealing with strategic questions, victories and defeats look different at different levels of detail.

To wit: The fall of Avdiivka delivers an important strategic victory for the Russians.

If you zoom out, though, the Russians have already suffered strategic defeat in this Ukraine adventure.

But if you zoom out even more, Russia is on the cusp of a strategic victory in its 75-year war against NATO.

To understand this trichotomy, we’ll have to talk about foreign policy, which I know turns readers off. But we’ll get to politics. I promise. So stay with me.