Here’s What Congress Has to Get Done Before Election Day
Here’s What Congress Has to Get Done Before Election Day
Plus: Numerical probabilities for each piece of legislation, for easy reference.
Congress is back in session next week, and there’s a lot on the lawmaking menu. Options vary in terms of importance, the political dynamics of the proposed legislation, and the resources required for each—especially time, the most precious commodity on Capitol Hill. As with real menus, it’s unlikely everything is going to get ordered up before the political kitchen closes. Allow me to give you a rundown of today’s specials. (Sorry, sorry, I’m done with that metaphor, I promise.)
Ukraine aid
Funding to aid Ukraine’s war effort against Russia is being packaged with similarly critical aid to Taiwan and somewhat less critical aid to Israel. Putting aside the obviously growing rift between the Biden White House and Israel, that country’s military already has a massive budget largely thanks to generous, longstanding assistance from the United States, allowing the IDF to take virtually whatever approach it wants to in the Gaza conflict, materially speaking. That Israel is included in the proposed aid package actually shaves off a few Democratic votes from what would otherwise be a solid caucus on it.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is maneuvering to get a Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan package on the floor somehow. Whether he does so using the existing standalone bill that passed the Senate or some other mishmash of policies baked together into a new bill is unclear. Either way, there will be adjustments. A popular idea among some Republicans is to convert the aid into a loan that would need to be paid back. (Johnson has been testing out a number of approaches to make the aid package more palatable to his party.)
What Democrats will offer in exchange for their votes hasn’t been decided yet, either. There are already murmurs that one bargaining chip they might drop on the table is a reversal of President Joe Biden’s pause on exporting liquified natural gas. Johnson might also try to get Democrats to commit to saving his speakership if advancing the aid package elicits a retaliatory motion to vacate by some angry Republicans who don’t want to back Ukraine at all. (Actually putting this request into words would require incredible finesse and tact, given the embarrassing press it could generate.)
As with an earlier plan to exchange border security and immigration restrictions for Ukraine aid, many different factions with different goals are playing against each other here. Some want many things; others just want one thing. Some are politically motivated, others personally motivated. And some men just want to watch the world burn.
Likelihood rating: 1. For the reasons listed above, I am bearish on a foreign aid deal being reached before the 2024 election. Anything can happen, of course, but it’s good to remember that most things don’t.