I Want to Tell the Stupid People That It’s the Economy, Stupid

On the asymmetry of voters’ “feelings” about the state of the economy under Biden and Trump.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 06, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

1. Soft Landing

We got the inflation numbers yesterday and—spoiler—they continue to be encouraging. Inflation is down to the lowest rate in two years and the pace of deceleration is slightly faster than was expected.

So we’ve got inflation waning, strong employment, the Dow very strong—everything suggests a soft landing.

And yet, sure as I’m sitting here, I know that we’ll spend the next six months hearing voters talk about how out of control inflation is, and how bad the economy is, and why they’re open to Trump 2024. Because the economy was so good under Trump!

I have given up trying to argue with these people. Their feelings don’t care about your facts.

But there is a fundamental asymmetry that I want to talk about. Not because we can fix it. No. This is a pure rant. I need to get it off my chest.

So buckle your chin strap and let’s go.