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Terry Hilldale's avatar

The partisan identification of registered voters is now evenly split between the two major parties: 49% of registered voters are Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party, and a nearly identical share – 48% – are Republicans or lean to the Republican Party.

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Mark P's avatar

Those who lean Democrat aren't necessarily going to vote for a Democrat, a lot of these people are low information voters who don't think about politics on a daily basis. They don't know about Biden's accomplishments because for whatever reason he and his team either can't effectively communicate them or the people are just in a "throw out the incumbent" mood and accomplishments don't matter. They see the choice as between a frail old man and a less frail clown. Many of them will sit out the election.

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Terry Hilldale's avatar

Pew finds that independents generally vote the way they lean. there are only about 7% true independents, but they could give trump the WH.

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