I have to wonder how much the idea that trust won't come back is over sold.
I remember hearing lots of talk from various experts saying that nobody will trust the institutions involved in the fraud with the subprime mortgage crisis. Yet here we are with a lot of these institutions still in place. I just don't trust that financial institut…
I have to wonder how much the idea that trust won't come back is over sold.
I remember hearing lots of talk from various experts saying that nobody will trust the institutions involved in the fraud with the subprime mortgage crisis. Yet here we are with a lot of these institutions still in place. I just don't trust that financial institutions really think as long terms as we'd like to think they do.
Trust in financial institutions like banks etc, is in a different league to trust between countries concerning cross border investment & trade. Besides, many of the companies involved in the financial crisis were bailed out by your government, which took away fears of collapse.
Unstable goverments where the rule of law has been tossed aside are not stable places to invest in or do business. The rules are unknown & can change with the whims of Dear Leader. America is such a place now. That is the reason why autocratic countries like North Korea, Hungary, Russia & some African & South American countries have basket case economies.
China is an exception purely because the Chinese Communist Party recognised the greed of capitalism, & made the smart move to encourage manufacturing to move there & pay slave wages. The cheap labour was like pollen to bees for big corporations. Their huge compliant population made it possible & the huge profits companies like Panasonic & Coca Cola made ensured more businesses would make the move.
Those are all fair points. At the same time I can't help but note things like the rules in China being someone in flux. Not just the IP theft, but also every once and a while some executive gets made an example of while the government is all "I'm shocked, shocked to find corruption in here."
I'm not in a "JVL's wrong, that's not gonna happen" mood on this. I just can't help but have some doubts and I'm curious to see how it plays out.
You're not wrong. My point with China is they were leagues smarter than other authoritarian regimes. Whilst they decried the corruption of democracy they were happy to take the money from democracies. And don't get me wrong, the CCP is as corrupt as anything lol. The leaders in the CCP are a lot better fed, dressed and watered than their billion and a half constituents. China is a very old country though and is quite practised in playing the long game, and they played the western world like muppets.
It's the only country Putin is truly scared of (he laughs at Trump), and he wishes he could have an economy like China. The other authoritarians can't even dream of it as their countries aren't big enough lol.
If I was an American investor or citizen though, my immediate worry would be Trump playing chicken with Xie. Trump is a clown when it comes to real finance, he's a fake TV businessman with the incredibly impressive feat of bankrupting casinos. Xie is the real deal though and has already levied tariffs back in a relatively restrained way. But if Trump keeps pushing and blustering, Xie has the magic weapon to do real damage to the US economy - the $760 billion in USA government bonds China holds. That scenario is something no-one in the western world wants, no-one sane anyway.
I have to wonder how much the idea that trust won't come back is over sold.
I remember hearing lots of talk from various experts saying that nobody will trust the institutions involved in the fraud with the subprime mortgage crisis. Yet here we are with a lot of these institutions still in place. I just don't trust that financial institutions really think as long terms as we'd like to think they do.
Trust in financial institutions like banks etc, is in a different league to trust between countries concerning cross border investment & trade. Besides, many of the companies involved in the financial crisis were bailed out by your government, which took away fears of collapse.
Unstable goverments where the rule of law has been tossed aside are not stable places to invest in or do business. The rules are unknown & can change with the whims of Dear Leader. America is such a place now. That is the reason why autocratic countries like North Korea, Hungary, Russia & some African & South American countries have basket case economies.
China is an exception purely because the Chinese Communist Party recognised the greed of capitalism, & made the smart move to encourage manufacturing to move there & pay slave wages. The cheap labour was like pollen to bees for big corporations. Their huge compliant population made it possible & the huge profits companies like Panasonic & Coca Cola made ensured more businesses would make the move.
Those are all fair points. At the same time I can't help but note things like the rules in China being someone in flux. Not just the IP theft, but also every once and a while some executive gets made an example of while the government is all "I'm shocked, shocked to find corruption in here."
I'm not in a "JVL's wrong, that's not gonna happen" mood on this. I just can't help but have some doubts and I'm curious to see how it plays out.
You're not wrong. My point with China is they were leagues smarter than other authoritarian regimes. Whilst they decried the corruption of democracy they were happy to take the money from democracies. And don't get me wrong, the CCP is as corrupt as anything lol. The leaders in the CCP are a lot better fed, dressed and watered than their billion and a half constituents. China is a very old country though and is quite practised in playing the long game, and they played the western world like muppets.
It's the only country Putin is truly scared of (he laughs at Trump), and he wishes he could have an economy like China. The other authoritarians can't even dream of it as their countries aren't big enough lol.
If I was an American investor or citizen though, my immediate worry would be Trump playing chicken with Xie. Trump is a clown when it comes to real finance, he's a fake TV businessman with the incredibly impressive feat of bankrupting casinos. Xie is the real deal though and has already levied tariffs back in a relatively restrained way. But if Trump keeps pushing and blustering, Xie has the magic weapon to do real damage to the US economy - the $760 billion in USA government bonds China holds. That scenario is something no-one in the western world wants, no-one sane anyway.